Kevin Hart Refresher

Kevin Hart takes a turn in the Cubs rotation, facing the Braves in a rubber game at Wrigley Field. With a day off Thursday, the Cubs won't need Hart again in the Cardinals series leading up to the All Star Break.

Hart made his name in the Fall of 2007, but struggled in 2008 and spent most of the season in Iowa. He had just been sent back to Iowa, after a brief stint in the Chicago bullpen, but was recalled when Ryan Dempster broke his toe on the dugout rail.

Dempster's injury will cost him about 6 or 7 starts, so someone will be filling in his spot after the break. Hart has a change to state his case for the job today.

Kevin throws a handful of pitches, although the change-ups are rare, possibly splitters or data errors. He's basically sinker/slider against lefties, with curves and four-seam fastballs bumped up in the mix against righties.



From left to right, this table covers pitch type; # number thrown; mph average speed 55 feet from home plate; rv100e runs allowed against average per 100 pitches based on batted ball type (grounder, liner etc.); rv100a same stat but for actual runs expected from hits and outs; IWZ rate of pitches thrown in a two-foot wide strike zone; Swing swing rate on all pitches; Whiff misses per swings; Chase swing rate on pitches out of the wide zone; Watch take rate (inverse of swings) on pitches in the wide zone; SLGCON slugging rate on balls in play; GB% ground balls per balls in play.

pitch	#	MPH	rv100e	rv100a	IWZ	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	SLGCON	GB%
Change	10	88.0	-0.941	-8.774	0.400	0.600	0.333	0.333	0.000	0.000	67%
Curveball	112	79.9	-0.910	-2.278	0.500	0.314	0.460	0.288	0.644	0.250	38%
Sinker	143	93.0	0.681	2.870	0.409	0.430	0.094	0.273	0.344	0.567	73%
Fastball	210	93.3	1.183	1.901	0.519	0.477	0.136	0.231	0.286	0.646	50%
Slider	282	87.4	-0.088	0.413	0.451	0.519	0.362	0.348	0.265	0.583	50%

Hart throws everything hard, even the slider. I don't think it's a cutter, lacks backspin, but it's thrown as fast as one. The ground ball rate on the sinker is very nice, and he appears to be a bit unlucky on balls in play (rv100e-rv100a is a decent estimate of luck). His fastball isn't very good, too straight perhaps. He misses a lot of bats with the curveball and slider, and the curveball is his most effective pitch.

Flight Paths



Pitch Locations

The light, white lines indicate reference points for the strike zone. Click to enlarge (applies to all images in this post, and most posts).







I can't imagine the middle-in fastballs do him much good, but the ones just up and out of the zone are probably OK. Hopefully those groups overlap frequently .... I need to create a heat map .... or learn how to first.

Roster Moves

Ryan Freel, who was DFA'd, was traded to Kansas City for a player to be named. The Cubs are also sending some cash to cover some portion of Freel's remaining 2009 salary.

According to comments at ACB, David Patton has been disabled, while Sam Fuld and Kevin Hart have been optioned to Iowa. This makes room for Angel Guzman, Aramis Ramirez and Reed Johnson, who are all being activated from the DL today.

Casey Fossum - the Newest Iowa Cub

The Cubs signed lefty Casey Fossum and put him in Iowa. I don't know the specifics of the deal, but it seems like a wise move, given Neal Cotts' season-ending surgery.

If Fossum is called-up by the Cubs, it will be his sixth major league uniform, starting with Boston, a year in Arizona, three in Tampa and then 2008 with the Tigers. Fossum started 2009 as a Met, but got the boot after three appearances. The Yankees scooped him up in May, stuck him in Scranton (per MLBTR). Fossum opted out of his contract with the Yankees, so he clearly feels like he'll get a better shot in Chicago.

Fossum, originally from New Jersey (have to mention the Garden State), is now 31 and hasn't made a start in the major leagues since May 29, 2007, but he has worked in the rotation for Scranton and Buffalo in the International League, as he has throughout his minor league career.

We'll see what he does in Iowa, but we have a good pile of pitches in PITCHf/x for Fossum, although he's a little tough to figure out. Take a grain of salt, but he's primarily sinker/fastball/slider and two curves (slower and slower). I may have found a couple changes and splitters, too. Low arm slot, blah velocity.

Fossum's fastballs run in the 87-90 range, with his four-seamer averaging 89.0 since 2007. The slider averages just under 84 (it's a bit of a slutter) and the curve can come in anywhere from 50 to 75.

Here's an oldie but a goodie, the aggregate spin movement plot with speed as the size/label.



Fossum's pitches are all very average based on actual and expected run values. His best his probably that curve (or curves) and maybe the slider. He's a generic LOOGY, which can be a pretty useful piece with virtually no cost if he just sits in the minors, and nominal costs even if he makes the team for the second half.

Quick f/x on Virgil Vazquez

Vazquez is back in the majors, making his second start since a couple brief stints in 2007 as a Tiger. We have some PITCHf/x data to compare Vazquez' one start as a Pirate to his partial PITCHf/x data as a Tiger (only one game of five is missing, actually).

Vazquez is a 6'3" righty, played NCAA for UCSB, and is the replacement for the supposedly self-demoted Ian Snell.

Comparing Vazquez' speed (mph) and movement (pfx, lateral in inches; pfz, vertical), it appears he may have lost a little bit of speed. The fastball (which includes a mix of two- and four-seamers) compared to the secondary pitches tells a better story.

2007      mph    pfx   pfz
Change    83.8  -8.1   5.6
Curve     74.4   4.8  -3.6
Fastball  92.0  -6.8  10.8
Cutter    87.2   0.3   6.3

2009      mph    pfx   pfz
Change    80.9  -4.1   4.2
Curve     75.1   7.7  -5.3
Fastball  90.9  -3.7   9.6
Cutter    86.6   3.7   4.9

2007      mph    pfx   pfz
FA-CU     18.6  12.9  14.4
FA-CH      8.2   1.3   5.2
FA-FC      4.8   7.1   4.5

2009      mph    pfx   pfz
FA-CU     15.8  11.8  14.9
FA-CH     10.0   0.4   5.4
FA-FC      4.3   7.4   4.7

The change is still a dropper more than a tailer (relatively speaking). His best pitch is the fastball (so far), but it's nothing special. The change, curve and cutter have had sub-par results in his limited work in the majors.

Zambrano, Dempster and Wells + Sox HITf/x

I'm doing a few posts at South Side Sox this weekend. Check 'em out.

Randy Wells

Ryan Dempster

Carlos Zambrano

HITf/x Snapshot of the April White Sox

Series Wrap-up (coming soon)

Draft Pick Update

At Out of the Ivy, I run down the majority of the 2009 Cubs draft picks and their status, and nearly all of the top 20.

Rick Porcello PITCH/fx - Sinker, Sinker, Sinker

As advertised, right-handed Tigers rookie Rick Porcello is a sinker-baller, no doubt about it. I think the pictures and numbers will do the talking, but, in short, it's his only good pitch.

Pitch Characteristics (speed and spin)

Pitch	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change	82	-9	4	248	1789
Curve	76	5	-6	42	1355
Sinker	92	-9	4	245	2055
Fastball	93	-5	8	211	1938
Slider	80	5	-1	95	1068

Flight Paths:



Pitch Mix




Pitch Outcomes: Swings and Locations

Pitch	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
Change	0.459	0.289	7.8	0.327	0.318	0.250
Curve	0.309	0.265	5.8	0.364	0.143	0.400
Sinker	0.480	0.106	1.6	0.616	0.282	0.388
Fastball	0.328	0.136	4.0	0.373	0.167	0.400
Slider	0.371	0.391	3.9	0.403	0.270	0.480

Slices and Layers, all pitches:



Strike Zone Locations, selected pitches:



Pitch Outcomes: Batted Balls

Pitch	GB%	FB%	LD%	HRFB%	IFFB%	HRLD%
Change	55%	25%	20%	20%	40%	0%
Curve	27%	45%	27%	40%	0%	0%
Sinker	63%	21%	16%	7%	20%	3%
Fastball	29%	57%	14%	25%	0%	0%
Slider	38%	50%	13%	50%	0%	0%

Pitch Outcomes: Slugging and Run Value

Pitch	SLGCON	rv100	RVAA
Change	0.550	1.669	1.636
Curve	1.000	3.056	3.362
Sinker	0.387	-1.497	-12.037
Fastball	1.000	4.026	2.698
Slider	1.125	2.578	1.598

Edwin Jackson PITCHf/x

Tigers righty Edwin Jackson is having a career year, and has drawn the opening start against the Cubs. Jackson will face Carlos Zambrano, who will likely insist on pinch hitting (at least!) in the last two games of the series.

The American League Champion Rays sent Jackson packing in a deal that sent Matt Joyce to Tampa Bay. Jackson showed signs of improvement in 2008, cutting down on his walks, and gave up one run in 4.1 innings of relief in the playoffs. Jackson is just 25-years old, and the Tigers appear to be beneficiaries of a live arm that seems to have found the strike zone.

PITCHf/x Exhibit A: Pitch Types

Before moving on, it's important to understand what Jackson throws. Albeit partially. I haven't split his two- and four-seam fastballs, which could end up being important. Or irrelevant.

Fastball  95 mph
Change    87
Slider    87
Curveball 80

A couple of notes on the pitch types and speeds:

• Jackson's fastball may have dropped a half a mph since 2007 and 2008, but that could simply be noise and/or some extra two-seamers; in any case he throws serious heat


• The change runs up to 90 mph far too often for my taste


• The slider can also hit 90, or run down to around 83—it's a good pitch


• The curve appeared a couple times in the limited 2007 data, but is getting more and more use; he'll run this pitch down into the 70s, also keeps it below slider speed

PITCHf/x Exhibit B: Pitch Selection

Pitch mix, by season and batter hand:



His change-up is being pushed away by better pitches—more the quality of these pitches below—something Detroit spotted that Tampa didn't?

PITCHf/x Exhibit C: Pitch Results

Good news	Bad news
Fastball finds the zone a lot more (.552 to .610), SLGCON dropping (.639,.555,.424). "On pace" for a 30+ rvaa improvement over 2008	HR/FB is low, LD rate is lower, too, this could leave plenty of space for regression. BTW, his overall BABIP is .255 in 2009
No longer throws curve for strikes (.459 to .310) but hitters haven't figured that out yet (.450 chase, .586 swing rate); no one hits it hard (SLGCON .167) and it's mostly grounders (67%); rv100 an amazing -4.596, already saved 2.7 runs (-2.666 rvaa)	Lefties could start laying off the curve, which could bring about a change the the batter-pitcher balance
The change and slider balance out in terms of quality, and there have been no real changes in terms of results, but he is using the slider more often against lefties	The change is not a good pitch, it gets hit hard

Gratuitous Flight Paths



Summing Up

1. Edwin Jackson is throwing more strikes


2. He's not getting hit hard, with some component of luck


3. Lefties haven't adjusted to his now out-of-the-zone curveball


4. He's a "different" pitcher with three quality pitches (FA,CU,SL) instead of two (FA,SL) and one crappy one (CH)

Limitations

Other than small samples, I'm not looking at pitch movement (there are hints of a difference in the slider this year, maybe) and not breaking out the fastball beyond a generic classification.

Cubs Pitching Staff - Best and Worst of 2009

Using some of my favorite PITCHf/x metrics, here are how the current Cubs have fared in 2009. I'm not including traded (Luis Vizcaino), injured (Chad Fox) or demoted (Jeff Samardzija). For individual pitch ratings, minimum 20 pitches thrown (that's not a a lot, but roll with it)

Run Value per 100 Pitches (rv100)
0 is "average", so a negative value means a pitcher (in this case) yields less runs per 100 than average.

Best Fastball      Angel Guzman      -1.664
Worst Fastball     Sean Marshall      3.336

Best Sinker        Jose Ascanio      -5.760
Worst Sinker       David Patton       2.933

Best Change/Split  Jose Ascanio      -2.739
Worst Change/Split Ted Lilly          1.703

Best Cutter        Carlos Zambrano   -3.260
Worst Cutter       Jose Ascanio       3.377

Best Curve         Jose Ascanio      -1.982
Worst Curve        Angel Guzman       3.190

Best Slider        Randy Wells       -2.627
Worst Slider       Aaron Heilman      1.206

Best Reliever      Angel Guzman      -1.902
Worst Reliever     David Patton       0.558

Best Starter       Randy Wells       -1.303
Worst Starter      Rich Harden        0.551

Let's try some other metrics, too.

Highest GB%      David Patton    56.1%
Lowest  GB%      Ted Lilly       32.7%

Highest LD%      Aaron Heilman   20.5%
Lowest  LD%      Angel Guzman    12.4%
  
Highest HR/FB    David Patton    0.188
Lowest  HR/FB    Carlos Marmol   0.031
  
Highest IFFB/FB  Carlos Marmol   0.531
Lowest  IFFB/FB  David Patton    0.063

Highest Whiff    Rich Harden     0.317
Lowest Whiff     Carlos Zambrano 0.157

Highest IWZ      Ted Lilly       0.625
Lowest IWZ       Aaron Heilman   0.484

BTW, Lilly leads the majors in pitches In Wide Zone (2 ft plate).

You can download all the data used for this post (Excel).