Getting to Know Kiko Calero - Just in Case

Hendry and Lou want to round out the bullpen with a veteran set-up guy. Kiko Calero, despite having some shoulder issues, is a possibility. His success seems, in part, to come from an ability to avoid the long ball. Of more interest is a strange pitch he occasionally throws.

Calero has a verrrry slow "slider" and a more conventional one, which is somewhere in between Carlos Marmol and Esmailin Caridad in terms of speed and sweep/snap, but with less sink on average. Let's call it a slurve, and I'll just use the plain slider to refer to the slow poke.

What the heck is that?

I had to check some literature on Mr. Calero when I found these slow sliders, leaping out of my PITCHf/x graphs. This is from the Neyer/James web extras from their book on pitchers:

Kiko Calero (2003 2007)
Report: "RHP Kiko Calero relies heavily on a slider he throws at two different speeds, which gives it two kinds of breaks -- one hard and one [sic] sharp and the other more looping. Calero, a reliever, throws one of his sliders on more than half of his pitches overall and on about three-fourths of them when he has two strikes on a hitter. If he gets ahead in the count, the at-bat is all but over."
Source: The Sporting News (8/11/2006, Mychael Urban)

How slow? 50 to 65 mph, that's how slow. But he barely throws it. Of the 11 I found, they could all be data errors, but they're too frequent (yet spread out over years) to dismiss out of hand. I will, however, mostly ignore them and his rarely thrown third pitch, a change-up.

The more conventional slider (or sliders?) has been his choice 52% of pitches since the end of 2006, but more like 66% with two strikes.

Time traveler

Calero's PITCHf/x trail goes back to October 2006 when he was with the A's. He happened to be in front of one of the first PITCHf/x installations -- Minnesota -- for the 2006 ALDS. Before arriving in Oakland, and eventually the post-season, Calero was a Cardinal. Most recently, a Marlin after a stop in Texas on a minor league contract. He spent most of 2008 in the Rangers' farm system. so most of the PITCHf/x data for Calero will come from Florida and his 2007 with the A's. Gameday has more complete coverage, but I'll be sticking to the last three years, and just his time in the Majors.

Calero's stuff isn't overwhelming, although his slurve looks nice. His fastball averages around 89 mph, his slurve 80, his "slow slider" averages 59, and the change-up around 84. That change may be nothing more than a slightly throttled two-seamer, a la Randy Johnson.

Yes, I just compared Kiko to Big Unit. So far, he's a mix of Johnson, Marmol and Caridad. I've gone off the rails.

First impressions and a trip to the park

Here are two things I like about Kiko Calero.

• His name is Kiko Calero


• He has whiff rate is .291 since 2007 (avg. is .206)

And some that I don't

• He's not a strike thrower -- .459 in the zone rate (avg. is .520)


• His fly ball rate is high -- .375 (avg. is .291)

Despite the fly ball tendencies, his home run rates are low -- just 0.3 per 9 IP since 2007. He's not a ground ball pitcher, and his line drive rate (.178) is just better than average (.194) since 2007. How does he do it? He doesn't fit the profile of a pitcher who can keep home run rates down -- is it all luck and/or park factors?

Part of it is ballparks, although he hasn't been tagged on the road in a couple years. Some of it is small sample sizes, although he's been tough to take deep since 2006. His career HR/9IP is 0.7, so it wasn't a major issue for Calero at any point in his career, from what I can tell.

Last note on the parks: since 2007 and in terms of home runs, Oakland has been a pitcher's park, Florida a hitter's park -- despite the dimensions.

At the plate and in the air

Pitch location can help keep home runs down. Take a look at Calero's pitch location on fly balls (including home runs, all two of them) in PITCHf/x from 2007.



In the first pane, you can see the consistent outter-half placement of fastballs, sliders and a few changes against lefties on pitches that resulted in fly balls. In the middle pane, you can see the slider away against righties, but more pitches over the inner half (fastballs) and no change-ups. The last pane shows the two home runs PITCHf/x has (it's missing one). A rare slider down and middle-in to a lefty and a fastball up and middle-in to a righty. Both notoriously dangerous locations.

If you check out Dave Allen's home runs by pitch location maps, you'll see how safe a play that down and away slider is against righties, and how dangerously located the two gopher balls were.

Where it flew

Keeping the ball away from lefties worked out very well. Of the 32 fly balls Calero gave up when facing a left-handed hitter, 6 were pulled, 14 hit to center and 12 the other way. He was 22, 29, 22 against righties. These are based on the fielder who played the ball, not the location of a ball in play, but the approximate location it cleared the wall (left- and right-center home runs count as center) according to Gameday's descriptions.

Let's see that again as a rate, and compare to Marmol and Aaron Heilman for kicks. Calero, or whomever, will be replacing Heilman essentially.

                 Pull    Center   Opposite
Calero v LHH     .19       .43      .38
Marmol v LHH     .46       .40      .14
Heilman v LHH    .29       .46      .25

Some small samples, but Calero beats Heilman, and they both stomp Marmol. Rubberband Man is actually a little scary in this picture.

                 Pull    Center   Opposite
Calero v RHH     .30       .40      .30
Marmol v RHH     .26       .29      .45
Heilman v RHH    .28       .36      .36

Here Calero is actually the poorest of the bunch, Marmol the best.

Gratuitous graphic

Last, here's a look at Calero's fastball and slurve in flight:



Compare that with sliders from Marmol, Jake Peavy and more as well as Caridad.

Numbers Support Maddux Plan

Greg Maddux is the newest member of the Cubs' front office. Old 31 plans on making at least one significant change to the organization, according Rick Sutcliffe, via this TCR tweet.

Sutcliffe on XM said he's hearing that with the hire of Maddux, Cubs plan to push for minors to learn how to pitch deep into games

Well, Maddog, good call. The Cubs' minor league starters rank dead last in making it to the sixth inning.

Going back to 2007, I found the rate at which each team in minors (those leagues the Cubs participate in, from short season A on up) worked their starters past the fifth inning. The results speak for themselves.

% of starts where starter went beyond 5th inning (2007-2009)
Pacific Coast (AAA)

     
Tacoma            62%
Salt Lake         61%
Round Rock        60%
Memphis           60%
Las Vegas         59%
New Orleans       57%
Fresno            57%
Oklahoma City     57%
Nashville         57%
Colorado Springs  57%
Portland          56%
Albuquerque       55%
Sacremento        55%
Reno              53%
Omaha             48%
Iowa              47%     

Southern (AA)

Birmingham        65%
Mobile            63%
West Tennessee    59%
Mobile            58%
Huntsville        56%
Montgomery        54%
Carolina          53%
Chattanooga       52%
Jacksonville      51%
Tennessee         44%

Florida State (A+)

Clearwater        62%
Fort Meyers       56%
Jupiter           54%
Dunedin           53%
Sarasota          49%
Lakeland          49%
Charlotte         48%
Tampa             47%
St.  Lucie        46%
Brevard County    41%
Palm Beach        40%
Daytona Beach     25%

Midwest (A)

Cedar Rapids      63%
Beloit            55%
West Michigan     53%
Kane County       49%
Clinton           46%
South Bend        45%
Dayton            44%
Burlington        43%
Lansing           42%
Wisconsin         41%
Great Lakes       38%
Fort Wayne        31%
Quad Cities       31%
Peoria            20%

Northwest (As)

Everett           38%
Yakima            32%
Salem-Keizer      29%
Vancouver         26%
Tri-City          24%
Eugene            24%
Spokane           18%
Boise              4%

No, it's not your imagination. The Cubs' affiliates rank dead last in each league, and it is extreme in the lower levels.

Nowhere to go but up—good call, Professor.

Cubs Campers - 29 Pitchers (So Far)

As we sit about one month from that magical day (Pitchers and Catchers Report), it's time to take stock of the Cubs' pitching roster. Al just posted a list of non-roster invitees at BCB, which includes seven pitchers. Adding in a Rule 5 pick, a couple trade acquisitions and the rest of the 40-man roster, the Cubs will have 29 pitchers in the big league camp in February.

Over the next couple weeks I'll be covering each group listed below (with some mixing and matching, groupings subject to change), along with any new additions and Hendry trolls the markets. Check back here for a list'o'links as I create the posts.

Camp Fodder (NRI)
J.R. Mathes
James Russell
Andrew Cashner
Casey Coleman
Thomas Diamond
Jeff Kennard*
Vince Perkins

Newbies
Mike Parisi
Carlos Silva
Jeff Gray

Various Kids
Mitch Atkins
Rafael Dolis
John Gaub
Marcos Mateo
Blake Parker
David Patton
Jeff Stevens

Kids with Expectations
Justin Berg
Esmailin Caridad
Jeff Samardzija

Lefties in Limbo
Tom Gorzelanny
Sean Marshall

The Locks
Ryan Dempster
John Grabow
Angel Guzman
Ted Lilly
Carlos Marmol
Randy Wells
Carlos Zambrano

*Kennard was recently signed minor-league free agent

Carlos Silva to the Cubs - Baggage Included

It finally happened. The Cubs, painted into their own corner, traded Milton Bradley. The Cubs' best projection batter for 2010 moves to Seattle. Coming back are none other than Carlos Silva, and what I understand amounts to $6 million in payroll flexibility over 2010 and 2011.

Even with the cash back, we're talking nearly $20 million for a pitcher best suited, at this point, for middle relief. Against right-handed hitters, preferably.

A Brief and Recent History

Let's take a stroll down Carlos Silva Memory Lane

8/9/2008

The wall of silence that has so often surrounded happenings inside the Mariners' clubhouse was finally shattered on Friday night by the frustrated voice of Carlos Silva.

His anger evident, fresh off a listless, 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the pitcher more or less accused some teammates of mailing it in and trying to pad their statistics. Silva said the selfish play of some Mariners lately has been making the entire starting rotation look bad, and he's had enough.

8/9/2008

Mariners manager Jim Riggleman said he was "very disappointed" with some of the comments right-handed pitcher Carlos Silva made Friday night during a postgame media session, and would address them during a meeting with the pitcher.
"A couple of things I read didn't make any sense," Riggleman said on Saturday. "It was very strange to me. Convoluted."

8/16/2008

Carlos Silva was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with what the Seattle Mariners called tendinitis in his elbow....Silva declined to comment, as he did on Friday night.

3/21/2009

Venezuelan manager Luis Sojo was approached by several reporters individually on Saturday before his team's 10-2 semifinal loss to Korea.
Each had the same question.

"So why are you starting Carlos Silva instead of Felix Hernandez?" each reporter asked.

Sojo smiled and responded each time, "He's been my best pitcher."
...
"This is his riskiest move of the tournament," one Venezuelan reporter had said.

Sojo's decision immediately flopped...When the inning ended, Silva walked to the dugout and threw his glove against the wall in frustration. Less than an inning later, Silva was knocked out... This time, Silva walked to the dugout and did not shake the few hands of teammates who offered their support. He simply walked into the clubhouse and disappeared.

3/28/2009

Right-hander Carlos Silva insisted on Saturday afternoon that everything from his neck down is pretty much ready for the regular season to begin.

The mental part of his game needs some work.
...
Silva said his bullpen sessions between and before his starts go well. But for some reason he has been unable to carry that success into a game. He ends up trying to do too much, throws too hard, and when power doesn't work, he backs off and uses finesse. That hasn't worked any better.

To say he's befuddled barely touches the surface.

4/15/2009

"The crowd is very important," he said. "I respect the crowd 100 percent. But it's one thing I've got to take out of my mind. I've got to pitch. I don't have to worry about crowds, I don't have to worry about anything. That's one of my biggest problems. I worry too much about the outside stuff."

Silva was asked whether anybody from the team has tried to talk to him about blocking out external factors.

"There are a lot of people talking to me, man," he said, bursting into laughter. "[Monday, manager Don] Wakamatsu talked to me a little bit, [pitching coach] Rick [Adair] talked to me, the mental [coach] guy talked to me."

5/6/2009

Silva has put too much pressure on himself. All of that criticism last year? The fans going at his weight, his pitching, his attitude? It's caught up to him. The media blasting him regularly? That's caught up to him as well. He's a mess. I wasn't sure about him last year, but having gotten to see him in action behind the scenes, I can tell you, he's one guy who takes this whole contract thing to heart. He's not running off, laughing at the Mariners for having paid him $48 million. He's losing sleep over it every night. He's tearing himself apart internally trying to make things right. Trying to please teammates he feels he's disappointing on a daily basis.

You can hear it in his voice, See it in his face, He's a rich man because of that contract. But he's not having a fun time. The pressure he's putting on himself, I think -- and so do many team officials -- is making him a worse pitcher than he truly is. And at this stage, as with any high pressure situation in life, it's sometimes good to take a step back. To absorb the situation going on in front of you.

5/20/2009

An MRI done on Carlos Silva on Tuesday revealed an impingement in his right shoulder. The MRI also showed fraying of both the labrum and rotator cuff.

Yadda yadda yadda, now he's a Cub. Aren't you glad the Cubs traded away the clubhouse, media and fan problem? I think there's an old adage about not trading your bag of problems for someone else's. Someone else's problems and six million bucks maybe not be covered.

I'll share some PITCHf/x data on Silva later. Short story: sinker/slider/change.

An Interview with Mike Parisi - Cubs Rule 5 Pick

In this morning's Rule 5 draft, the Cubs selected right-hander Mike Parisi from the St. Louis Cardinals. Mike is back from Tommy John surgery and had an impressive run in the Arizona Fall League.

I was fortunate enough to get a few minutes of Mike's time on the phone this morning to get his reaction. We also talked about his stuff. Here is a rough transcript/notes from our conversation.

Questions in bold, answers in quotes/plain text, my comments in italics

---

Parisi got a call from his agent and a text from the Cardinals with the news. Knowing he was exposed to today's draft, the news was not a surprise altogether, but very exciting in the details. He used the word "pumped" at least once to describe the feeling.

Congratulations. How does it feel to be picked by the Cubs and being given a shot to make the rotation?

"Feels amazing. Rule 5 is very tricky, like the regular draft. You never really know what's going to happen."

What do you know about Lou and Larry? Or any coaches/players in the Chicago organization?

"I don't know any of them, I just know of them. I'm excited to start working and hopefully impress them."

Parisi had good success in the AFL with a cutter. It was a pitch I thought he added after his surgery, but it actually goes back to when the Cardinals sent him down, prior to the elbow injury.

You've started throwing a cutter. Along with it, more ground balls. What led you to this pitch, and where are you going with it?

"In 2008 Tony LaRussa sent me to Dave Duncan. He said I needed to add a cutter or slider to go with my two-seamer, something I could throw for strikes. He was 100% right."

Parisi started using the cutter in the Minors, but didn't get far before he was hurt. He picked it right back up upon his return.

"During rehab in Palm Peach, I worked hard at it for two weeks. I threw it in the Gulf Coast League, got some guys out with it."

Mike took the pitch with him to the AFL, and it had a big impact on his approach

"I'm not throwing as many curveballs. But the cutter has opened up the rest of my pitches, so, yes, it's definitely had an impact."

We talked a bit about his fastballs. Parisi's main pitch is his two-seamer, but he did confirm that he throws a few four-seamers

From looking at your PITCHf/x data, your two-seam fastball looks like a tailer more than I sinker. Is that accurate?

"Definitely more of a tailer. If I get it down in the zone, more of a pitcher's pitch, it gets more sink. Normally it fades into a righty. That isn't bad now that I have the cutter. I can run it in on their hands and run the cutter the other way, at similar speeds."

Are you trying to add speed to the cutter?

"I guess I am a little"

I'll have to paraphrase the rest of this answer - the idea of adding speed is to have the option to straighten it out a little. Parisi likes to be able to work the pitch from small cutter to big cutter to small slider. Sounds like a slutter to me.

Looking at PITCHf/x it appears your arm slot my lower with your off-speed and breaking stuff. Is that true?

"Yes. It's not something I try to do, it's something that happens. I try to get on top of the fastballs as much as I can. I don't know if you can really tell with a naked eye. You're the first person to ever bring that up in six years of professional ball."

---

Good luck to Mike Parisi, and thanks for being the first Cubs f/x interviewee.

You can read a little more about Parisi in my brief Rule 5 preview at The Hardball Times.

Updating the Cubs' Center Field Picture

Just a few days ago I took a look at some in-house and outside candidates for the Cubs' center field job. With Curtis Granderson going to the Yankees, things have already shifted to the second tier. More changes could come Thursday morning (by the time you read this, actually), as the Cubs could lose or gain relevant pieces in the Rule 5 draft.

Two more names to consider, not that I want to. Scott Podsednik and Melky Cabrera. Cabrera could be available now that New York has Granderson, and Podsednik just won't go away.

CHONE gives Podsednik a -10 for batting runs in 2010, Jeff Zimmerman's UZR150 projections a -3 on defense. CHONE also has defensive projections now, and TotalZone disagrees with UZR, giving Pods a +4.

Melky gets a +6 from CHONE for batting and a -3 from UZR. TotalZone comes up with a -1 projection for Cabrera.

Put it all together, with your grains of salt, and here's where things sorta stand.

Acceptable  Cabrera, Byrd, Cameron, Crisp 
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel, Podsednik
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Me thinks Melky is now the Cubs' best option, amongst those I've considered so far. Be sure to check out the first post for links and more details.

Soft in the Middle: Center Field Options for the 2010 Cubs

Update: check out part two

Let's just assume Milton Bradley officially vacates right field, handing the spot back to Kosuke Fukudome. Reed Johnson, as we already know, hasn't been offered arbitration. This leaves center field open for the 2010 Cubs.

Counting out Fukudome and Johnson, the Cubs are left with two returning center fielders from 2009 -- Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin. The glut of rumors around center fielders coming to Chicago, by trade or free agency, should be no surprise.

Including the two returning options, there are a few center fielders in the Cubs' system and the trade and free agent markets.

Returning	Minors	Free Agents	Trade Mentions
Tyler Colvin	James Adduci	Rick Ankiel	Curtis Granderson
Sam Fuld	Matt Camp	Marlon Byrd	Aaron Rowand
	Brandon Guyer	Mike Cameron
	Brett Jackson	Coco Crisp

There are other outfielders who have played center for a Cubs minor league affiliate, including Tony Campana (who played the position regularly in Daytona), but none worth mentioning. Including Tony Campana.

Hitting Projections

These r150 values are from CHONE. Here's Sean's explanation of the stat

The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in.

Colvin      -18
Fuld        - 7

Adduci      -25
Camp        -28
Guyer       -27
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      - 8
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 5
Crisp       - 3

Granderson   13
Rowand      - 9

Let's group those another way. As a rule of thumb, 10 runs equals 1 win.

>  1 win  Granderson

>  0 win  Byrd

<  0 win  Crisp, Cameron, Fuld, Ankiel

< -1 win  Colvin, Jackson (being generous here)

< -2 win  Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Taking CHONE at face, it's about a one win gap from Granderson to Byrd. From there, it's a smaller step, but close to a win, to the next group. It's another win down to Colvin and Jackson, and yet another down to Adduci, Camp and Guyer. But we haven't considered defense yet.

Roaming Center Pasture

Starting with the players with sufficient MLB service time (Fuld barely), we can apply Jeff Zimmerman's uzr150 projections (age adjusted). Similar to the r150 for batting runs, this reflects the approximate number of runs saved (positive) or allowed (negative) compared to the average center fielder.

Cameron       4
Crisp         4
Granderson    1
Byrd          0
Rowand        0
Ankiel      - 5
Fuld        - 5

With just 162 innings of big league time in center, Fuld's projection should be taken with a grain of salt.

Where does this put our run totals so far?

Colvin      ???
Fuld        -12

Adduci      ???
Camp        ???
Guyer       ???
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      -13
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 1
Crisp         1

Granderson   14
Rowand      - 9

Granderson still stands alone, while Byrd, Cameron and Crisp bunch closer together. Fuld and Ankiel fade away with Rowand.

Awesome     Granderson
Acceptable  Byrd, Cameron, Crisp
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Camp's defense is well regarded (he also plays shortstop), but he's not Willie Mays. Based on what little I know about Colvin and Jackson's defense, they're probably closer to Please No than Not Likely.

If I'm Jim Hendry

The Cubs have to go outside the organization. Rowand or Ankiel would be an utter waste, Byrd, Cameron or Crisp fine for a year at a good price. Granderson is appealing, but the cost (in terms of young talent) is probably prohibitive.