Monday, September 10, 2007

A matter of style and judgment

I calculated average strike zones for all players (using +/- 1 ft. for lateral, PITCHf/x data for vertical), sliced everyone's pitches into 9 zones etc etc. for all hitters with over 250 pitches

First thing I noticed, is you can infer something about style of hitter (aggressive, conservative) and/or judgment (good, bad) from swing rates, in and out of the zone.

I've included lines indicating mean and rings for one and two SD's out. A little rough (hacking in Excel), but close enough for starters.



Let's look at the leaders and the Cubs.

The most aggressive hitters: Hitter (ISZ/OSZ)
Delmon Young (.817/.444)
Alfonso Soriano (.776/.437)
Johnny Estrada (.786/.428)
AJ Pierzynski (.751/.389)
Vladimir Guerrero (.743/.385)

The most conservative hitters:
Andy Gonzalez (.454/.164)
Reggie Willits (.466/.184)
Ramon Martinez (.502/.187)
Luis Castillo (.462/.200)
Jayson Werth (.497/.219)

Worst Judgment:
Travis Metcalf (.562/.370)
Ryan Zimmerman (.522/.366)
Ronnie Belliard (.534/.354)
Michael Cuddyer (.562/.337)
Jamie Burke (.552/.324)

Best Judgment:
So Taguchi (.719/.194)
Ryan Raburn (.718/.212)
Jeff Kent (.694/.181)
Jim Edmonds (.694/.209)
David Ortiz (.682/.207)

Leaders

Biggest difference between ISZ and OOZ:
Morgan Ensberg (.546)
So Taguchi (.525)
Jeff Kent (.514)
Ryan Raburn (.506)
Josh Hamilton (.489)
14th place Mark DeRosa (.470)

Smallest difference between ISZ and OOZ:
Ryan Zimmerman (.155)
Ronnie Belliard (.179)
Travis Metcalf (.192)
Miguel Olivo (.195)
Reed Johnson (.198)
63rd place Jason Kendall (.302)

Most likely to swing at a ball: (OOZ)
Ivan Rodriguez (.487)
Miguel Olivo (.459)
Tony Pena (.446)
Corey Patterson (.445)
Delmon Young (.444)
6th place Alfonso Soriano (.437)

Least likely to swing at a ball: (OOZ)
Morgan Ensberg (.124)
Jack Cust (.131)
Jeff Conine (.135)
Rickie Weeks (.142) [ed. Wow!]
Brian Giles (.144)
47th place Mark DeRosa (.196)

Most likely to swing at a strike: (ISZ)
Delmon Young (.817)
Geoff Jenkins (.810)
Johnny Estrada (.786)
Rick Ankiel (.779)
Jeff Francoeur (.777)
6th place Alfonso Soriano (.776)

Least likely to swing at a strike: (ISZ)
Andy Gonzalez (.454)
Luis Castillo (.462)
Reggie Willits (.466)
J.J. Hardy (.487)
Jayson Werth (.497)
20th place Jason Kendall (.534)

Cub Styles:
Some of these fits are weak - particularly Murton's bad judgment - he's really average, a little on the bad side.

Aggressive:
Alfonso Soriano (.776/.437)
Jacque Jones (.712/.335)
Aramis Ramirez (.695/.326)

Conservative:
Derrek Lee (.565/.219)
Ryan Theriot (.557/.237)
Jason Kendall (.534/.232)

Bad Judgment:
Matt Murton (.634/.277)
Mike Fontenot (.580/.269)

Good Judgment:
Cliff Floyd (.668/.253)
Mark DeRosa (.666/.196)


1 comment:

Mike Fast said...

Harry, I'm enjoying your blog.

If you're a BP subscriber, you might take a look at Dan Fox's article:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6322
The third section of the article deals with plate discipline.