Update 2: Check out part one of the Bedard/Hill fastball comparison.
UPDATED Release Points:
Noisy, eh? One random one in there for Rich, should be purged. Other within pitcher differences are probably park-to-park.
Hill comes at it from a different angle. I'll discuss this more, and some other pitches, in another post.
Noisy, eh? One random one in there for Rich, should be purged. Other within pitcher differences are probably park-to-park.
Hill comes at it from a different angle. I'll discuss this more, and some other pitches, in another post.
Erik Bedard and Rich Hill. Two lefties, two curveballs. From a partial sample of PITCHf/x data (y0=50, no data corrections applied - just rejections), you can see some interesting differences.
In this graph, the size is the Spin Rate (RPM) against pfx_x and pfx_z. You can see the curveballs in the lower left corner.
Here are the curveballs I selected (bubbles re-scaled a little)
So, who has the better curve - Hill's moves more, but is it more effective?
Raw numbers first
| Erik | Rich | |
| Ball | 35 | 83 |
| Swinging Strike | 28 | 22 |
| Called Strike | 20 | 66 |
| Foul | 21 | 47 |
| In Play | 12 | 27 |
| Home Run | 0 | 0 |
| 116 | 245 |
Rates clearly show the big difference in swinging strikes, and a similar difference in called strikes.
| Erik | Rich | |
| Ball | 30.2% | 33.9% |
| Swinging Strike | 24.1% | 9.0% |
| Called Strike | 17.2% | 26.9% |
| Foul | 18.1% | 19.2% |
| In Play | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| Home Run | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bedard not only is getting more swings, but more whiffs.
| Erik | Rich | |
| Swing Rate | 52.6% | 39.2% |
| Whiff Rate | 45.9% | 22.9% |
Adding it up, in terms of Balls and Strikes
| Erik | Rich | |
| Ball | 30.2% | 33.9% |
| Strike | 59.5% | 55.1% |
Bedard's got the slight edge, despite getting less movement. A key difference could be approach, and what I'm not measuring is how one pitch sets-up another.
I'll take a look at their fastballs next. [here you go - fastballs, part 1]
4 comments:
Another thing to consider is each pitcher's delivery and mechanics.
Bedard has more deception with his delivery than does Hill, certainly creating a few more strikeouts.
Every pitcher's mechanics are different. That is very hard to quantify.
One thing that DOES need to be factored in is the caliber they face. Clearly Bedard faces better hitters playing in the AL East and with a DH in play.
Posting a release point update to the post ....
Location is another factor. Bedard gets a lot of swinging strikes on curveballs just down off the inside corner out of the strike zone.
http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/files/2008/01/bedard_curveballs_both.jpg
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