Lieber Projections and In-Play Data

As I mentioned earlier, I recall Lieber throwing a lot of ground balls.

The great site Fan Graphs provides what we're looking for. Here's his numbers from 2002/2007/total - 2002 being his last with the Cubbies, total being 2002-2007 (remember, Jon didn't pitch in 2003, the first year of his contract with the Yankees). He still is a ground ball pitcher, even more now than in 2002. He is giving up more line drives.

	2002	2007	'02-'07
GB%	.427	.438	.450
FB%	.345	.287	.335
LD%	.228	.275	.215
HR/FB	.094	.095	.117

Lieber appears to have adapted well to Philly's band-box, as he managed to lower his fly ball rate, and his homer per fly ball rate, during his stay. His FIP dropped half a run last year as a result. All told, Jon has given up a little since his best days in Chicago, but much less than I expected. His even improved ability to keep the ball down should serve him very well.

His projections:

source	IP	ERA	WHIP	K9
CHONE	134	4.63	1.39	5.44
Marchel	114	4.74	1.39	5.92
Bill James	167	4.04	1.28	5.77
CBS	125	4.82	1.31	5.40
ZiPS	166	4.75	1.30	5.75

I'll take it. Beats Marquis, I bet. I will dig into him next.