More on Pie and Murton

In the comments of the previous post, Robert noted

....talent and upside are a factor. You have to give Felix a chance....

To which I responded

Pie has tools, but no track record of hitting

Which is bogus. Basically, Pie has hit as well as Murton at every level, at a younger age, until AAA and the Majors.

Why does he hit the wall? I think it is he reached a level where he could no longer hide his weakness, and hasn't adjusted. He's had a lot of time to do so. He is young, so he has that on his side, but he has nearly 900 PA's at AAA already.

Take a look at some comparable numbers - they both played in the same minor leagues (if not organizations) from A+ to AAA. I also include a few projections, first as-is, and again, normalized to 600 PA's.

You'll see that they have virtually equivalent power (if not by ISO, but by SLG/AVG), but wildly different strike-out rates. He's likely to develop more power than Murton ever will, but I don't know if he'll make so many outs that it won't matter.

A+ FSL	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	505	455	73	13	63	50	71	.292	.362	.437	.799	.70	.145	1.50	22	14.1
Pie	450	412	79	8	47	38	113	.299	.358	.442	.800	.34	.143	1.48	19	25.1
AA SOU	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	350	313	46	8	46	29	42	.342	.403	.498	.901	.69	.156	1.46	23	12.0
Pie	262	240	41	11	25	16	53	.304	.349	.551	.903	.30	.247	1.81	20	20.2
AAA PCL	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	210	185	34	7	30	22	26	.335	.410	.557	.967	.85	.222	1.66	25	12.4
Pie	873	788	129	24	100	65	166	.306	.361	.484	.845	.39	.178	1.58	22	19.0
MLB	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	929	830	124	28	98	87	123	.296	.365	.455	.820	.71	.159	1.54	25	13.2
Pie	194	177	26	2	20	14	43	.215	.271	.333	.604	.33	.118	1.55	22	22.2
Marcel	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	381	340	51	11	42	36	54	.291	.360	.450	.810	.67	.159	1.55	26	14.2
Pie	297	266	40	6	35	25	55	.256	.320	.402	.722	.45	.147	1.57	23	18.5
BILL JAMES	PA*	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	244	220	33	7	28	23	30	.305	.373	.468	.841	.77	.163	1.53	26	12.3
Pie	573	533	82	16	62	40	111	.283	.333	.456	.789	.36	.173	1.61	23	19.4
CHONE	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
murton	466	420	60	14	59	43	61	.288	.358	.455	.813	.70	.167	1.58	26	13.1
pie	536	496	65	13	65	38	107	.272	.326	.433	.759	.36	.161	1.59	23	20.0
Marcel	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	600	535	80	17	66	57	85	.291	.360	.450	.810	.67	.159	1.55	26	14.2
Pie	600	537	81	12	71	51	111	.256	.320	.402	.722	.45	.147	1.57	23	18.5
BILL JAMES	PA*	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	600	541	81	17	69	57	74	.305	.373	.468	.841	.77	.163	1.53	26	12.3
Pie	600	558	86	17	65	42	116	.283	.333	.456	.789	.36	.173	1.61	23	19.4
CHONE	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
murton	600	541	77	18	76	55	79	.288	.358	.455	.813	.70	.167	1.58	26	13.1
pie	600	555	73	15	73	43	120	.272	.326	.433	.759	.36	.161	1.59	23	20.0