I found that the odd looking numbers I found for Murton et al. in some pitch preference posts were not only odd, but wrong.
I was using an older query and spreadsheet combo to look at, ahem, Sammy Sosa, and decided to look at Murton again. Numbers didn't match-up, validated the "old" query, and I now have better data. Or correct data. Useful data. So, I re-opened Marlon Byrd and Felix Pie, too.
One of the things I wanted to look at with Sammy was "Fools" - something I worked on a few months back when I started the blog. Fools are pitches the batter takes for strikes in the zone, or whiffs on out of the zone. It is crude, full of holes, but fun to look at. Heck, if crude stats are good enough for Joe Posnanski, they're good enough for me.
A few things first - these data sets are just what we have in the PITCHf/x database. I discard pitches on some criteria (intentional walks, below certain MPH cut-offs, other obvious data anomalies). I set the strike zone from two sources. First, it is 2 ft. wide, based on a Harball Times study. Second, it is as high and low as the average setting by the PITCHf/x operators.
On pitches OOZ, here's the 3 best places to fool each of these guys (there are 8 segments of OOZ), plus their ISZ Fool rate, plus the number of OOZ segments they are >=15% fooled. "Within" means not high or low, but off the plate. "Over" means high or low, but within the 2 ft. "plate".
Murton
Down and Over (18.8%)
Up and In (10.0%)
Up and Away (6.7%)
In Zone (25.6%)
Fool Zones (1)
Pie
Up and Over (22.2%)
Down and Over (19.6%)
Down and Away (16.7%)
In Zone (29.5%)
Fool Zones (4)
Byrd
Down and In (33.3%)
Down and Over (26.6%)
Up and Over (19.7%)
In Zone (25.9%)
Fool Zones (4)
Sosa
Down and Over (28.7%)
Down and Away (18.8%)
Up and Over (14.8%)
In Zone (24.1%)
Fool Zones (3)
Sammy just misses a fourth Fool Zone. It's pretty obvious Murton is a patient hitter.
How about Power Zones? Any segment where they've homered. Percentage shown is HR/Contact (Contact = HR + FB + In Play)
Murton
Up and Over (8.7%)
In Zone (3.1%)
Pie
no homers in PITCHf/x data
Byrd
Within and In (3.0%)
In Zone (1.4%)
Sosa
In Zone (4.7%)
As you look at the numbers (data below), keep in mind the sample sizes are small and they vary (Felix 324, Murton 500, Sosa 1110, Byrd 1257). I'm working on another topic with Fools, which I'll get back to, now that I've cleaned up my mess.
| FELIX | Seen | Fooled | Swing | Contact | Foul | Homer | In Play |
| Up and Inside | 0.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Up and Over | 5.6% | 22.2% | 33.3% | 14.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Up and Away | 3.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Within and Inside | 4.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| In Zone | 48.1% | 29.5% | 60.3% | 58.1% | 55.8% | 0.0% | 44.2% |
| Within and Away | 19.8% | 6.3% | 34.4% | 30.0% | 38.9% | 0.0% | 61.1% |
| Down and Inside | 2.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Down and Over | 14.2% | 19.6% | 43.5% | 29.7% | 63.6% | 0.0% | 36.4% |
| Down and Away | 1.9% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| MARLON | Seen | Fooled | Swing | Contact | Foul | Homer | In Play |
| Up and Inside | 1.3% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 7.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Up and Over | 5.6% | 19.7% | 36.6% | 21.1% | 58.3% | 0.0% | 41.7% |
| Up and Away | 0.7% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 12.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Within and Inside | 7.6% | 4.2% | 38.5% | 35.9% | 60.6% | 3.0% | 36.4% |
| In Zone | 57.1% | 25.9% | 65.7% | 62.9% | 51.8% | 1.4% | 46.8% |
| Within and Outside | 11.8% | 6.8% | 29.7% | 24.6% | 61.8% | 0.0% | 38.2% |
| Down and Inside | 1.2% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 10.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Down and Over | 9.9% | 26.6% | 41.9% | 20.9% | 52.6% | 0.0% | 47.4% |
| Down and Away | 4.8% | 15.0% | 18.3% | 3.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SAMMY | Seen | Fooled | Swing | Contact | Foul | Homer | In Play |
| Up and Inside | 2.2% | 4.2% | 16.7% | 13.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Up and Over | 9.7% | 14.8% | 26.9% | 14.1% | 76.9% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Up and Away | 1.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Within and Inside | 8.9% | 7.1% | 39.4% | 34.8% | 65.6% | 0.0% | 34.4% |
| In Zone | 48.9% | 24.1% | 66.9% | 60.7% | 45.3% | 4.7% | 50.0% |
| Within and Outside | 11.9% | 9.1% | 21.2% | 13.3% | 56.3% | 0.0% | 43.8% |
| Down and Inside | 1.4% | 12.5% | 31.3% | 21.4% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Down and Over | 11.6% | 28.7% | 48.1% | 27.2% | 36.0% | 0.0% | 64.0% |
| Down and Away | 4.3% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | -- | -- | -- |
| MATT | Seen | Fooled | Swing | Contact | Foul | Homer | In Play |
| Up and Inside | 1.8% | 10.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | 75.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Up and Over | 11.6% | 4.7% | 40.6% | 37.7% | 47.8% | 8.7% | 43.5% |
| Up and Away | 2.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Within and Inside | 7.3% | 0.0% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 77.8% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| In Zone | 51.8% | 25.6% | 64.2% | 60.9% | 50.3% | 3.1% | 46.5% |
| Within and Outside | 7.3% | 5.0% | 20.0% | 15.8% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Down and Inside | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Down and Over | 11.6% | 18.8% | 23.4% | 5.8% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Down and Away | 4.2% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
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