ZIPS and In-Play data for Murton and Pie

OK, I can't get enough of Pie v Murton, so be it.

Dan Szymborski has posted his ZIPS projections for the Cubs (read the comments for Dempster as a starter projection and a correction on Fukudome's SB/CS). Let's take a look.

Name	P	Age	AVG	OBP	SLG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS
Felix Pie*	cf	23	.269	.321	.429	148	539	71	145	27	7	15	61	40	122	20	9
Matt Murton	lf	26	.289	.360	.465	156	471	71	136	27	1	18	63	51	67	3	0

This all matches up well with the other projections. A closer look shows that ZIPS likes Murton more (walks and power are up compared to the others). It gives him a BB:K ratio of .93 and boosts his SLG/AVG to about 1.6, about the same as Pie's.

When you check out Dan's full post, see the "optimistic" on Pie in the "spotlight" section - wow.

Projections are great, but so is real data. Check out the batted ball data over the past few years for Matt and Felix.

Matt	BABIP	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	LD%	POP%
2005 AA	.376	60.3%	25.2%	12.1%	11.8%	2.7%
2005 AAA	.440	53.8%	23.1%	16.7%	23.1%	0.0%
2005 MLB	.342	61.7%	21.7%	25.9%	11.7%	5.0%
2006 MLB	.321	58.4%	20.1%	15.7%	17.0%	4.5%
2007 AAA	.331	53.7%	26.9%	16.7%	16.4%	3.0%
2007 MLB	.309	48.5%	26.5%	15.7%	18.9%	6.1%
Felix	BABIP	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	LD%	POP%
2005 AA	.352	43.9%	34.5%	16.9%	17.5%	4.1%
2006 AAA	.342	47.7%	30.2%	11.8%	15.4%	6.7%
2007 AAA	.416	48.0%	26.8%	18.8%	18.5%	6.7%
2007 MLB	.273	48.9%	24.4%	5.9%	18.3%	8.4%

Observations

1. Pie got lucky in 2007 at Iowa - that BABIP is absurd.


2. Pie's HR/FB rate dropped off 3-fold. That's got to improve. Right? Please?


3. As noted in a previous post, Murton likes the ball up-and-in. It shows, as a trend.


4. Meanwhile, Pie has been hitting more grounders and line drives. But he doesn't appear to be hitting the ball with much authority, based on the ugly 5.9% HR/FB rate.