100 Years, all this Year

Think Groundhog Day, but with an entire baseball season. And Bill Murray gets Andie MacDowell in every iteration. Or 89% of them.

Using Diamond Mind Baseball and build 1.1 of ZiPS 2008, I ran 100 simulations of the 2008 season. I had the "weather" system on, and injuries were set to "rating", and, in ZiPS, everyone is "normal" in that regard. I modified the manager profiles very little; executed the Bedard trade and fixed a couple line-ups and rotations.

Being an idiot, I didn't save the batting and pitching stats, only the standings. But I did export the full web site for the 100th run. You can get the .zip archive here (1634kb). Extract it, open index.html and you can browse the season results.

The standings below include division wins and wild card berths during the 100 runs. Ties get a .5, so take it more as a percentage than actual count.

The Cubs own the Central, and do OK against the rest of the playoff contenders - also see full standings below and some stat leaders. The leaders are for just the 100th run, not the aggregate.

#	Team	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
ALE	NYA08	98.1	63.9	924	739	72.0	17.0
ALC	DET08	90.9	71.1	855	746	56.5	8.5
ALW	OAK08	88.2	73.9	799	713	60.0	5.0
ALWC	BOS08	90.5	71.5	848	758	15.0	32.0
NLE	NYN08	100.0	62.0	832	656	75.0	15.5
NLC	CHN08	93.5	68.5	810	695	86.5	2.5
NLW	SD08	88.7	73.3	729	661	44.8	2.5
NLWC	ATL08	93.8	68.2	863	735	22.5	48.5

American League
East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
NYA08	98.1	63.9	924	739	72.0	17.0
BOS08	90.5	71.5	848	758	15.0	32.0
TOR08	88.7	73.3	752	670	11.0	24.0
TB08	78.0	84.0	800	821	2.0	2.0
BAL08	68.9	93.1	762	902	0.0	0.0
Central	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
DET08	90.9	71.1	855	746	56.5	8.5
CLE08	88.1	73.9	837	744	39.5	8.0
MIN08	76.0	86.0	732	789	3.0	1.0
KC08	73.8	88.2	768	846	0.5	0.0
CHA08	69.6	92.4	786	911	0.5	0.0
West	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
OAK08	88.2	73.9	799	713	60.0	5.0
LAA08	85.2	76.8	778	748	36.0	2.5
SEA08	74.0	88.0	716	790	2.0	0.0
TEX08	72.1	89.9	800	897	2.0	0.0
National League
East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
NYN08	100.0	62.0	832	656	75.0	15.5
ATL08	93.8	68.2	863	735	22.5	48.5
PHI08	86.6	75.4	878	810	2.5	22.0
WAS08	69.6	92.4	765	881	0.0	0.0
FLA08	63.6	98.5	721	897	0.0	0.0
Central	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
CHN08	93.5	68.5	810	695	86.5	2.5
MIL08	82.9	79.1	809	780	11.5	3.0
STL08	78.3	83.7	743	757	2.0	0.0
CIN08	73.0	89.0	751	845	0.0	0.0
HOU08	70.2	91.8	717	819	0.0	0.0
PIT08	65.5	96.5	693	852	0.0	0.0
West	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
SD08	88.7	73.3	729	661	44.8	2.5
ARI08	84.4	77.6	718	685	21.3	4.5
LAD08	83.4	78.6	758	739	24.8	1.5
COL08	77.4	84.6	766	801	5.5	0.0
SF08	77.4	84.7	679	701	3.5	0.0

NL triple crown leaders - you can see the top 25 for tons of stuff in the files
I didn't notice until after I almost finished this post, but, in this run, Kosuke led the league in hitting.

Fukudome CHN  .352   Howard   PHI   59   Utley    PHI  135
Utley    PHI  .350   Fielder  MIL   46   Berkman  HOU  125
Berkman  HOU  .339   Jones    LAD   44   Fielder  MIL  123

And it was a good run for the pitchers

Earned run average				Wins				Strikeouts
Young	SD	1.72		Lilly	CHN	18-4		Santana	NYN	263
Webb	ARI	2.04		Santana	NYN	18-7		Peavy	SD	233
Santana	NYN	2.28		Hamels	PHI	17-6		Young	SD	223
Peavy	SD	2.54		Young	SD	15-6		Zambrano	CHN	220
Lilly	CHN	3.07		Hill	CHN	15-7		Penny	LAD	217
Wainwright	STL	3.15		Martinez	NYN	14-5		Webb	ARI	213
Hill	CHN	3.30		Webb	ARI	14-7		Martinez	NYN	208
Lincecum	SF	3.35		Haren	ARI	14-8		Hill	CHN	203
Zambrano	CHN	3.47		Maddux	SD	14-8		Lilly	CHN	193
Haren	ARI	3.50		Zambrano	CHN	14-9		Oswalt	HOU	193