Monday, February 4, 2008

Cubs Hitting Projections - a closer look

First, the data (updated with JD Closser's ZiPS), from 6 sources, averaged for all players with at least 3 sets of numbers (PECOTA, ZiPS, Bill James, Chone, Marcel and CBS).
Columns are sortable - just click the headers.


































PlayermOBPmSLGmOPS
Derrek Lee384518902
Aramis Ramirez356539895
Alfonso Soriano333527860
Kosuke Fukudome377471848
Matt Murton363459822
Geovany Soto349466814
Daryle Ward345444789
Micah Hoffpauir324447771
Mark DeRosa351419770
Felix Pie328433761
Mike Fontenot341410750
Matt Craig329421750
Eric Patterson328421749
Jake Fox314429743
Josh Kroeger311427738
JD Closser327402729
Ronny Cedeno318406724
Tyler Colvin295420715
Sam Fuld338369707
Ryan Theriot336365701
Koyie Hill304366670
Henry Blanco287377664
Brian Dopirak279378656
Ryan Harvey259386645
Nate Spears305340645



Amongst catchers, JD Closser projects as the best offensive option, behind Soto (naturally). I wouldn't give this job to Blanco automatically. If the pitchers work well with Closser, he's an interesting pick.

The Cubs appear to have a strong duo at second with DeRosa and Fontenot. Patterson, who seems to be headed out to left field (in more ways than one), doesn't count. Cedeno can play the position, too, but I'm more interested in him as a .....

Shortstop - Theriot is the worst regular by far, and possibly the worst on the bench, in terms of bat. His OBP projections are not terrible, but he has no pop. I don't think he's Ronny's equal on defense, either. His hustle and attitude earn him points, but not enough to play every day, and certainly not in the 2nd spot in the order.

If Hoffpauir's healthy, he'll be a good call-up if Lee goes down. Ward's bat off the bench is amazing. Leave the glove at home. Aramis has a built in back-up in DeRosa.

I won't venture off the dirt and into the new outfield. I may trip, expecting the crown to be there. And I've spent plenty of space on the outfield scenario. But I can't help it - Fuld looks like Theriot with a bigger glove.

Finally, I like Jake Fox - especially as a third catcher/corner utility guy.


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