For the purposes of this analysis, I'm defining a curveball very simply - and it's not 12-to-6.
Taking only pitches thrown when PITCHf/x was set to y0=50, the pitch has to have at least 3 inches downward movement beyond gravity's effect and at least 3 inches of movement laterally. For lefties, it is negative (or catcher's left) and the opposite for the righties.
For outcomes, I'm only using basic events - takes (called strikes [CS] and balls [B]) and swings (misses [SS] fouls [F] homers [HR] other in play [X]).
For all hitters, I took all pitches that met this definition, and took the average pfx_x and pfx_z for each qualifying pitch they saw
OK, wonderful. Not all hitters saw the same thing, so this is pretty shady analysis, but fun anyway. Your mileage may vary, data void in Alaska and Hawaii, for no particular reason. You can argue that these aren't all curves, not taking account variance in the system, release points, plate crossing etc.
First, the over-all averages by event
B 40.84%
CS 19.40%
SS 10.22%
F 13.41%
X 15.76%
HR 0.39%
Now the rates - swing is swings/total; contact is contact/swings; homers are homers/contact
swing 39.77%
contact 74.30%
homer 1.31%
Hitters don't swing at a lot of this type of pitch, and they don't make a lot of contact (just corrected that number, it is low, but not that low). Homers are a freak.
Forty-seven hitters got home runs. Here are the interesting ones
David Ortiz and Kenji Johjima
Only hitters in the sample with a home run off a lefty and a righty
Miguel Cabrera and Justin Morneau
Only other hitters with more than one homer
Matt Cain
Only pitcher
Daric Barton
Other than Papi, only lefty to clobber a lefty's curve
Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez
Only Cubs on the list
Other fun facts for hitters with at least 10 curves for a given pitching side.
Throw curves to Delmon Young. From either side of the plate, he likes them.
Swing Rate - vs. Righty
Big Z! Swing at everything
Delmon Young 78.38%
Ryan Church 76.92%
Tony Pena 76.47%
Matt Diaz 75.00%
Jeff Francoeur 73.33%
Carlos Delgado 72.73%
Miguel Cairo 71.43%
Carlos Zambrano 71.43%
Johnny Estrada 70.59%
Jacoby Ellsbury 70.00%
Vlad Guerrero 69.23%
Marlon Byrd 68.18%
Swing Rate - vs. Lefty
Delmon Young 83.33%
Juan Uribe 80.00%
Rajai Davis 78.57%
Ichiro Suzuki 70.59%
Vlad Guerrero 70.00%
Nick Markakis 70.00%
Rich Aurilia 70.00%
Mike Piazza 66.67%
Randy Winn 66.67%
Prince Fielder 64.71%
Mark Loretta 64.29%
Aramis Ramirez 64.00%
Whiffers - bad contact rates
Contact Rate - vs. Righty
Rob Bowen 0.00%
Wilson Betemit 25.00%
Andy LaRoche 25.00%
A. De Aza 25.00%
Alex Rodriguez 25.00%
Dan Ortmeier 33.33%
Jack Hannahan 33.33%
Freddie Bynum 33.33%
Jonny Gomes 34.78%
Miguel Olivo 36.36%
Brad Wilkerson 37.50%
Mark Teixeira 37.50%
Carlos Zambrano 40.00%
Mark Teahen 42.86%
Craig Biggio 42.86%
Mike Piazza 42.86%
Chris Duncan 44.44%
Z again, plus A-Rod (!)
Contact Rate - vs. Lefty
C. Granderson 16.67%
Wily Mo Pena 20.00%
Alfonso Soriano 25.00%
Rick Ankiel 25.00%
Adam Dunn 33.33%
Josh Bard 33.33%
Jacque Jones 33.33%
Nick Swisher 33.33%
Pat Burrell 33.33%
Robb Quinlan 42.86%
Jim Thome 42.86%
Aramis Ramirez 43.75%
Aaron Rowand 44.44%
Craig Monroe 44.44%
Prince Fielder 45.45%
Ouch, Aramis again. Lay. Off. The.
Here's some more on the Cubs - including folks like Monroe and Jones (I left out a couple guys, added some <10 seen guys, too). Click to sort headers (only works on the blog, not in feeds or other sites).
| last | first | bats | throws | B | CS | SS | F | X | HR | pfx_x | pfx_z | mph | total | swingrate | contactrate | hrrate | xrate |
| Ramirez | Aramis | R | L | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -6.04 | -8.83 | 72.8 | 25 | 64.00% | 43.75% | 0.00% | 18.75% |
| Soriano | Alfonso | R | L | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -5.65 | -6.22 | 72.4 | 17 | 47.06% | 25.00% | 0.00% | 12.50% |
| Monroe | Craig | R | L | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -5.83 | -6.31 | 73.5 | 20 | 45.00% | 44.44% | 0.00% | 11.11% |
| DeRosa | Mark | R | L | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -5.89 | -8.13 | 73.0 | 25 | 44.00% | 72.73% | 0.00% | 36.36% |
| Murton | Matt | R | L | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -5.52 | -7.64 | 71.7 | 27 | 37.04% | 70.00% | 0.00% | 60.00% |
| Jones | Jacque | L | L | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.13 | -6.46 | 71.5 | 13 | 23.08% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Cedeno | Ronny | R | L | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -5.23 | -8.17 | 73.4 | 13 | 61.54% | 75.00% | 0.00% | 25.00% |
| Soto | Geovany | R | L | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.93 | -5.92 | 74.7 | 10 | 20.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Lee | Derrek | R | L | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -5.74 | -7.36 | 74.3 | 23 | 30.43% | 85.71% | 14.29% | 28.57% |
| DeRosa | Mark | R | R | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 5.61 | -7.15 | 74.8 | 24 | 41.67% | 90.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| Floyd | Cliff | L | R | 15 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6.09 | -6.25 | 73.4 | 27 | 33.33% | 88.89% | 0.00% | 44.44% |
| Fontenot | Mike | L | R | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6.25 | -7.52 | 73.6 | 26 | 42.31% | 63.64% | 0.00% | 36.36% |
| Jones | Jacque | L | R | 13 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 6.51 | -7.10 | 73.6 | 42 | 50.00% | 90.48% | 0.00% | 57.14% |
| Kendall | Jason | R | R | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6.27 | -5.74 | 75.7 | 20 | 30.00% | 83.33% | 0.00% | 33.33% |
| Lee | Derrek | R | R | 28 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5.99 | -6.40 | 76.3 | 46 | 28.26% | 61.54% | 0.00% | 38.46% |
| Monroe | Craig | R | R | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5.40 | -6.65 | 76.8 | 18 | 33.33% | 83.33% | 0.00% | 16.67% |
| Ramirez | Aramis | R | R | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 5.43 | -6.50 | 75.9 | 25 | 60.00% | 80.00% | 6.67% | 46.67% |
| Soriano | Alfonso | R | R | 12 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | -5.87 | 75.2 | 46 | 65.22% | 63.33% | 0.00% | 36.67% |
| Theriot | Ryan | R | R | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6.62 | -5.70 | 75.3 | 19 | 36.84% | 85.71% | 0.00% | 57.14% |
| Ward | Daryle | L | R | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.89 | -6.07 | 76.5 | 11 | 36.36% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Zambrano | Carlos | S | R | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6.38 | -7.94 | 72.2 | 14 | 71.43% | 40.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% |
| Murton | Matt | R | R | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.24 | -6.95 | 75.8 | 9 | 22.22% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| Lilly | Ted | L | R | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5.04 | -7.15 | 73.9 | 8 | 62.50% | 80.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% |
| Soto | Geovany | R | R | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.47 | -6.00 | 75.7 | 6 | 16.67% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Pie | Felix | L | R | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.55 | -5.47 | 77.4 | 5 | 20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Marshall | Sean | L | R | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.22 | -5.43 | 76.2 | 4 | 100.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Marquis | Jason | L | R | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.91 | -6.41 | 78.4 | 4 | 75.00% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Cedeno | Ronny | R | R | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.72 | -5.63 | 74.8 | 4 | 25.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Pagan | Angel | S | R | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.14 | -7.51 | 73.0 | 4 | 25.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Marmol | Carlos | R | R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.00 | -6.68 | 76.9 | 2 | 100.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Patterson | Eric | L | R | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.36 | -6.06 | 76.3 | 2 | 50.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Hill | Rich | L | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.88 | -3.26 | 78.7 | 1 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Trachsel | Steve | R | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.33 | -7.70 | 74.9 | 1 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Fuld | Sam | L | R | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.23 | -7.22 | 77.0 | 1 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
| Blanco | Henry | R | R | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.41 | -4.89 | 73.6 | 1 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
| Bowen | Rob | S | R | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.49 | -5.20 | 76.0 | 11 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Theriot | Ryan | R | L | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.33 | -7.57 | 72.5 | 7 | 14.29% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Floyd | Cliff | L | L | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.95 | -5.93 | 72.7 | 6 | 33.33% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| Kendall | Jason | R | L | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5.52 | -10.02 | 75.1 | 6 | 33.33% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Marquis | Jason | L | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -5.72 | -5.91 | 73.7 | 5 | 80.00% | 75.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| Blanco | Henry | R | L | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.60 | -6.82 | 75.6 | 5 | 60.00% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Pagan | Angel | S | L | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -5.14 | -7.53 | 72.1 | 5 | 60.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 66.67% |
| Hill | Rich | L | L | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.30 | -9.01 | 73.8 | 5 | 20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Lilly | Ted | L | L | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.00 | -7.02 | 70.8 | 5 | 20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Fontenot | Mike | L | L | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6.18 | -7.27 | 74.7 | 4 | 25.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Hill | Koyie | S | L | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7.68 | -4.24 | 73.3 | 3 | 33.33% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| Bowen | Rob | S | L | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.02 | -4.40 | 73.4 | 3 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
| Marmol | Carlos | R | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5.04 | -10.47 | 70.2 | 2 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Marshall | Sean | L | L | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6.15 | -9.08 | 72.8 | 2 | 50.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Pie | Felix | L | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.42 | -3.85 | 81.7 | 1 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
| Ward | Daryle | L | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.63 | -5.57 | 75.2 | 1 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
| Fox | Jake | R | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.28 | -3.84 | 75.9 | 1 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
| Wuertz | Michael | R | L | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.83 | -9.88 | 74.9 | 1 | 0.00% | - | - | - |
8 comments:
Excellent stuff. So much there to digest.
Thanks
I'm working on heaters next.
This. Is. Awesome.
Dog's right though, lots to digest, especially with BTF going nuts on TheHawk tonight, there may just not be enough of me to read all of this information.
Read the BTF first. I would. I did.
btw, once I clean up the spreadsheet, I'll make it available
It looks like Soriano does a pretty good job of hitting the curve when it comes from righties, all things considered.
What are the league average rates for Swing/Contact/Xrate? Maybe it's just me, but knowing what "normal" looks like would make it easier to process.
CW - I see I left that out, there is a summary of swing/contact/homer rates towards the top.
I'll put the in-play rates up, and the hard-luck guys (bad ratios of called strikes to balls) tongight
updated the blog with a new post with the in-play rate, plus best/worst B:CS ratios.
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