D**n you Kubatko!! (or PITCHf/x and George Sherrill)

I can't help but speculate on the whole Roberts/Bedard trade thing. I'm trying to ween myself off it, but a Figgins rumor doesn't do it for me. I need me some Oriole rumors. No, Steve Trachsel's return to Camden isn't gonna do it. This has me goin' today, courtesy of Roch Kubatko at the Baltimore Sun

Going back to Roberts, I’m still disregarding any rumors that have Roberts and George Sherrill packaged in a trade to the Cubs. Trembley already has told Sherrill that he wants the left-hander to be his closer. Team president Andy MacPhail didn’t sign a veteran closer, we’re speculating, because he anticipated getting Sherrill from the Mariners.

Of course, if Sherrill is holding up a Cubs jersey and smiling from ear to ear later this month, I’ll destroy this entry and claim ignorance. It’s worked in the past.

We do need a lefty in the 'pen, for sure. Here's what Sherrill looks like to PITCHf/x, with a k-means cluster applied to start_speed,pfx_x,pfx_z,spin rate, spin direction. All pitches y0=50.

Click to enlarge, the charts are, clockwise from top-left, start speed (x axis is split by appearances) followed by spin rate/spin direction, release points, and, finally, in the bottom left, pfx_x by pfx_z.



Even though a 4-cluster model fits the data best, your eyes may tell you it is just 2. The exception appears to be the spin directions at the low RPM's - as Mike Fast as noted before, this might be a defect in the system. But ESPN Insider Scouting Report says he has four - fastball, curve, slider and change-up.

Let's see.

Pitch	Cluster	Thrown	pfx_x	pfx_z	mph	rpm	spin dir.
Fastball	1	39.1%	4.72	11.18	90.43	1486.73	157.12
Slider	2	16.7%	-4.86	1.83	78.28	574.96	248.84
Change-Up	3	34.1%	3.23	9.11	90.29	1183.88	160.46
Curve	4	10.1%	-4.89	-1.34	77.75	532.71	104.50

I dunno, could be two pitches. A curveball usually has a lot more spin, and the change-up isn't much of a change, either. I mean, just how different are these pitches from each other?


I'll go with fastball and slider. But who cares about the Oriole's closer, anyway?