High Heat

Fastballs. Not all of them. High, straight and, well, fast ones. Taking a sample of all PITCHf/x pitches with y0=50, and restricting the results to all pitches that are

1. >93.5 mph (start speed)


2. > 1000 rpm


3. < 10 inches horizontal break (pfx_x)


4. > 5 inches less drop than predicted by gravity alone (pfx_z)


5. crossed the plate at least 3/4 of the way up a player's strike zone (pz)

To use the vernacular, high, rising cheese. But not really rising, and at various heights. Not a whole lot of movement, either.

As with the curves, I took all the pitches seen by hitters (no R/L split this time) and averaged them for each player. I also cut the data a few different ways (splits included) at different speeds and height, same spin rules. In the end, I went with this set, for all hitters with at least 10 of these pitches.

The average pitch in the set (or, an average of the averages, not to be taken to the bank, as it not really precise) out of a total of 7500 pitches

1. 95.1 mph


2. 1498.4 rpm


3. pfx_x is a little below zero, but doesn't mean much as this mixes RHP and LHP


4. pfx_z = 10.1 inches


5. 3.6 ft. above the ground when crossing the plate (also not to meaningful, as the pz that mattered was based on an individual hitter's zone)

Results

  B     CS      SS      F       X       HR
43.0%  7.5%   12.3%   24.4%   12.2%   0.5%

Rates

swing   contact   foul    in-play   hr
49.4%   75.1%     65.7%   32.9%     1.4%

Swing Rate

Corey Patterson   92.9%
Skip Schumaker    92.3
Mike Sweeney      90.0
Freddy Sanchez    87.5
Howie Kendrick    85.7
----------------------
Hideki Matsui     20.0
Jim Edmonds       20.0
Daryle Ward       18.2
Brandon Moss      18.2
Willy Taveras      9.4

2008 Cubs
Matt Murton       73.3 (17th out of 305)
Alex Cintron      54.5 (113)
Mike Fontenot     52.9 (129)
Aramis Ramirez    44.8 (192)
Alfonso Soriano   36.8 (246)
Derrek Lee        30.0 (285)
Mark DeRosa       23.5 (293)
Daryle Ward       18.2 (303)

Wow, Corey, seriously.

Several players have perfect contact rates (small sample), so here are the hitters with the best contact with over 40 pitches in the sample, followed by the worst amongst all with at least 10, and the Cubs

Contact Rate

40+ pitches seen
Billy Butler      95.5
Jose Vidro        95.0
Reggie Willits    94.1
Gregg Zaun        91.7
Orlando Cabrera   91.3
----------------------
10+ pitches seen
Trot Nixon        25.0
Cody Ransom       25.0
Ryan Howard       16.7
Russell Branyan   14.3
Daryle Ward        0.0

2008 Cubs
Aramis Ramirez    84.6 (98)
Mike Fontenot     77.8 (147)
Mark DeRosa       75.0 (174)
Matt Murton       72.7 (177)
Alfonso Soriano   71.4 (196)
Alex Cintron      66.7 (213)
Derrek Lee        33.3 (296)
Daryle Ward        0.0 (305)

Good thing Ward doesn't swing at them. There's only 11 pitches in here for him, so consume with a big chunk'o'salt.

The sample size here is pretty small, so I'm going to move on to do something with a larger data set. That's coming up in a later post.

First, here's another look at the overall numbers, for the high heat and the curveballs

Events

            B     CS     SS     F      X     HR
Heater    43.0   7.5   12.3   24.4   12.2   0.5
Yakker    40.8  19.4   10.2   13.4   15.8   0.4

Rates

          swing   contact   foul    in-play   hr
Heater    49.4    75.1      65.7    32.9     1.4
Yakker    39.8    74.3      55.4    43.3     1.3