Hill and Bedard - Fastballs

Last week I compared Rich Hill and Erik Bedard curveballs by looking at a couple comparable games within the PITCHf/x database.

Mike Fast found two Erik Bedard two fastballs in this MVN article. I've noted in the past that Hill throws a fastball and a cutter. I suspect I should call his cutter a change. Here's a look at start speed and pfx_x.

For the rest of this, I'll just be evaluating the pitches that have a start speed > 86 mph and calling them "fastballs". I'll get into the nitty-gritty of actual speed, spin and movement differences to contrast the two pitchers.

Starting with Release Points and the pfx_x x pfx_z x rpm graphs:


Sorry about the color change here. The size of the dot is based on the spin rate (rpm)


Next up is speed and movement. Bedard throws harder, with more "movement".


PFX is square root of ((pfx_x)² * (pfx_z)²)), so movement is really a combination of rise/sink away from the effects of gravity alone, as well as horizontal movement.

Splitting horizontal (pfx_x) and vertical (pfx_z) apart:


So, Bedard is getting more cut, and Hill will even throw it with a little inside movement to a righty.

Here, Hill gets more "rise" on his fastball.

Before trying to break these pitches down any further, take a look at outcomes. Hill's looking better here, while Bedard bested him previously, with the curves.

	Erik	Rich
Ball	65	213
Swinging Strike	6	68
Called Strike	42	93
Foul	40	158
In Play	23	107
Home Run	3	5
	179	644
	Erik	Rich
Ball	36.3%	33.1%
Swinging Strike	3.4%	10.6%
Called Strike	23.5%	14.4%
Foul	22.3%	24.5%
In Play	12.8%	16.6%
Home Run	1.7%	0.8%
	100.0%	100.0%
	Erik	Rich
Ball	36.3%	33.1%
Strike	49.2%	49.5%
	Erik	Rich
Swing Rate	40.2%	52.5%
Whiff Rate	8.3%	20.1%

That's enough for now. I'll come back to these fastballs, break them down some more and take another look.