Update: Found Ascanio under the Braves roster.
PECOTA cards are now complete, with today's addition of the pitchers.
Let's take a look at some of the guys fighting it out for a job, or a spot. Again, these are extreme projections, 10th and 90th percentile.
eqERA - eqK9 - eqHR9
Closers
Bob Howry
2.56 - 6.6 - 0.8
6.36 - 6.5 - 1.5
Carlos Marmol
2.72 - 9.1 - 0.8
8.32 - 7.9 - 1.7
Kerry Wood
2.87 - 8.3 - 0.8
6.94 - 6.9 - 1.6
Marmol's got the best upside, and highest risk. Howry is the least dominating, but more predictable, from the looks of these numbers. Which supports conventional wisdom.
Two Lefty Relievers
Neal Cotts
2.95 - 6.9 - 0.7
8.57 - 5.9 - 1.6
Scott Eyre
2.54 - 7.4 - 0.7
8.99 - 7.8 - 1.4
Carmen Pignatiello
2.84 - 6.7 - 0.6
6.69 - 6.5 - 1.1
I vote for Air and Piggy. Don't ask me why Eyre's K rate improves (B rate blows up, btw).
Two Righty Relievers
Jose Ascanio
3.04 - 6.1 - 0.7
8.06 - 4.9 - 1.6
Jose Ceda
3.73 - 8.6 - 0.6
6.76 - 9.4 - 0.8
Kevin Hart
4.44 - 5.5 - 1.1
9.89 - 4.7 - 2.1
Tim Lahey
not projected by PECTOA
Michael Wuertz
2.34 - 8.3 - 0.6
5.56 - 7.4 - 1.1
The 2nd spot for a righty in the pen exists only if you assume Dempster or Marquis don't get it if they don't make the rotation (see below). If I were to guess, Dempster ends up in the pen, along with Wuertz who I think is a no-brainer. Marquis hits the road, and Lahey goes back from whence he came. Ceda goes to AA, where he belongs, until May or June. Hart gets a ticket to Des Moines. Updated: Ascanio looks very interesting.
3rd and 5th Starters
Ryan Dempster
3.37 - 6.2 - 0.6
8.45 - 5.5 - 1.5
Sean Gallagher
3.86 - 6.5 - 0.9
9.25 - 5.5 - 1.9
Jon Lieber
3.39 - 4.7 - 0.8
7.42 - 4.4 - 1.7
Jason Marquis
3.98 - 4.8 - 0.9
8.22 - 4.0 - 1.7
Sean Marshall
3.84 - 5.4 - 0.9
7.41 - 4.5 - 1.4
If you're weren't already pessimistic about Marquis....and Dempster sure looks like a roll of the dice (duh).
2 comments:
I really like Ascanio and I think he's going to be a big part of the Cubs bullpen in 2008 if it's successful. His ability to throw strikes, in my opinion, almost guarantees he'll be up with the team for most of the season, if not all of it. Lou also likes those hard throwing righties, which Ascanio is.
If it were my team, my 7-man bullpen would be: Dempster (closer), Howry, Wood, Marmol, Eyre, Wuertz, and Ascanio
I feel like that's a lefty short. I'd take Ascanio out and go with Pignatiello or Cotts.
In other news, Muskat confirms Gallagher is not a candidate to start - Lou is giving the veterans every chance, so expect Sean to end up in Iowa or Tennessee.
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