Gordon, I agree on Marmol (which means we're both wrong), but not on Felix.
The Cubs will trade for a veteran outfielder to start in center
I hope not, and here's why - the most mentioned CF since Marlon Byrd has been Coco Crisp. I don't like Coco as a starter, and he only wants to start. That won't work, we need a 4th outfielder, a platoon guy at best.
Here are some 2008 projections for both Felix Pie and Coco Crisp. Fangraphs.com gives us five sets (including MINER, which I'm not familiar with), plus three more (PECOTA, CBS and Cairo), and that should do it. Eight is Enough to show Crisp doesn't deserve to block Pie.
| Pie | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO |
| Bill James | 533 | - | 151 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 82 | 62 | 40 | 111 | - | 23 | 11 | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.456 | 0.789 | 0.173 |
| CHONE | 496 | 536 | 135 | 27 | 7 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 38 | 107 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 0.272 | 0.326 | 0.433 | 0.760 | 0.161 |
| Marcel | 266 | 297 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 35 | 25 | 55 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0.256 | 0.322 | 0.402 | 0.724 | 0.147 |
| MINER | 195 | 216 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.241 | 0.292 | 0.385 | 0.676 | 0.144 |
| ZiPS | 539 | - | 145 | 27 | 7 | 15 | 71 | 61 | 40 | 122 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 0.269 | 0.321 | 0.429 | 0.750 | 0.160 |
| PECOTA | 390 | 429 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 62 | 53 | 31 | 84 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 0.291 | 0.344 | 0.479 | 0.823 | 0.188 |
| Cairo | 363 | 392 | 95 | 19 | 4 | 9 | - | 38 | 25 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.261 | 0.312 | 0.405 | 0.717 | 0.144 |
| CBS | 488 | - | 130 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 75 | 55 | 40 | 115 | - | 15 | 5 | 0.266 | 0.322 | 0.400 | 0.722 | 0.134 |
| average | 409 | 374 | 111 | 22 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 50 | 32 | 89 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 0.267 | 0.322 | 0.424 | 0.745 | 0.156 |
| best | 539 | 536 | 151 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 82 | 65 | 40 | 42 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0.291 | 0.344 | 0.479 | 0.823 | 0.188 |
| worst | 195 | 216 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 15 | 122 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0.241 | 0.292 | 0.385 | 0.676 | 0.134 |
| Coco | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO |
| Bill James | 419 | - | 117 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 62 | 45 | 36 | 64 | - | 19 | 7 | 0.279 | 0.338 | 0.401 | 0.739 | 0.122 |
| CHONE | 485 | 529 | 135 | 31 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 64 | 43 | 74 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 0.278 | 0.338 | 0.421 | 0.759 | 0.142 |
| Marcel | 487 | 541 | 134 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 73 | 55 | 42 | 78 | 1 | 21 | 5 | 0.275 | 0.332 | 0.405 | 0.737 | 0.129 |
| MINER | 504 | 560 | 140 | 29 | 3 | 10 | 77 | 57 | 44 | 79 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 0.278 | 0.329 | 0.407 | 0.735 | 0.129 |
| ZiPS | 527 | - | 143 | 33 | 5 | 10 | 82 | 65 | 48 | 79 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 0.271 | 0.333 | 0.410 | 0.743 | 0.139 |
| PECOTA | 493 | 549 | 137 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 72 | 54 | 44 | 78 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 0.278 | 0.338 | 0.407 | 0.745 | 0.129 |
| Cairo | 509 | 565 | 144 | 31 | 4 | 10 | - | 58 | 44 | 78 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 0.282 | 0.334 | 0.421 | 0.755 | 0.139 |
| CBS | 460 | - | 129 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 50 | 33 | 69 | - | 23 | 6 | 0.280 | 0.329 | 0.409 | 0.737 | 0.128 |
| average | 486 | 549 | 135 | 29 | 4 | 9 | 71 | 56 | 42 | 75 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 0.278 | 0.334 | 0.410 | 0.744 | 0.132 |
| best | 527 | 565 | 144 | 33 | 5 | 10 | 82 | 65 | 48 | 64 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0.282 | 0.338 | 0.421 | 0.759 | 0.142 |
| worst | 419 | 529 | 117 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 45 | 33 | 79 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 0.271 | 0.329 | 0.401 | 0.735 | 0.122 |
| OPS | Pie | Coco |
| Bill James | 0.789 | 0.739 |
| CHONE | 0.760 | 0.759 |
| Marcel | 0.724 | 0.737 |
| MINER | 0.676 | 0.735 |
| ZiPS | 0.750 | 0.743 |
| PECOTA | 0.823 | 0.745 |
| Cairo | 0.717 | 0.755 |
| CBS | 0.722 | 0.737 |
Felix and Coco get the 'nod' from four of the eight systems apiece.
Felix has more power, Coco a little better on base and stolen base projections.
Wouldn't be a bad platoon, but, from what I've seen this Spring, Felix is a better hitter than the guy we saw last year.
So, don't trade for Coco, he'll be a malcontent or a blockade. It isn't about being on a winning team and being a role player. Otherwise he'd be content in Boston.





2 comments:
MINER is apparently a Marcels derivative from Jeff Sackmann, I guy who has a pretty good reputation. That said, it has absolutely no track record that I know of.
CAIRO is another Marcels derivative, again only released for this season.
The CBS projections are probably the least accurate of the bunch; I suspect that the Bill James projections aren't far behind.
If you stick to the big 4 (CHONE, PECOTA, ZiPS and Marcels) it's probably even more apparent that Pie is likely to be the better player on offense.
And let's not even talk about defense. Crisp is good; Pie has a chance to be an elite defender.
I found some more info on MINER at Fan Graphs - just Marcel plus some BABIP etc tossed in.
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