Sunday, March 9, 2008

Coco Pie

Gordon, I agree on Marmol (which means we're both wrong), but not on Felix.

The Cubs will trade for a veteran outfielder to start in center

I hope not, and here's why - the most mentioned CF since Marlon Byrd has been Coco Crisp. I don't like Coco as a starter, and he only wants to start. That won't work, we need a 4th outfielder, a platoon guy at best.

Here are some 2008 projections for both Felix Pie and Coco Crisp. Fangraphs.com gives us five sets (including MINER, which I'm not familiar with), plus three more (PECOTA, CBS and Cairo), and that should do it. Eight is Enough to show Crisp doesn't deserve to block Pie.















PieABPAH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPSISO
Bill James533-15130716826240111-23110.2830.3330.4560.7890.173
CHONE49653613527713656538107222120.2720.3260.4330.7600.161
Marcel266297681536403525552820.2560.3220.4020.7240.147
MINER19521647925272715421630.2410.2920.3850.6760.144
ZiPS539-1452771571614012222090.2690.3210.4290.7500.160
PECOTA390429113254146253318431350.2910.3440.4790.8230.188
Cairo363392951949-3825752320.2610.3120.4050.7170.144
CBS488-13025510755540115-1550.2660.3220.4000.7220.134
average409374111225116050328921460.2670.3220.4240.7450.156
best539536151307168265404232320.2910.3440.4790.8230.188
worst1952164792527271512213120.2410.2920.3850.6760.134

















CocoABPAH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPSISO
Bill James419-117243762453664-1970.2790.3380.4010.7390.122
CHONE485529135314106064437411960.2780.3380.4210.7590.142
Marcel48754113428497355427812150.2750.3320.4050.7370.129
MINER504560140293107757447902040.2780.3290.4070.7350.129
ZiPS527-143335108265487922250.2710.3330.4100.7430.139
PECOTA49354913729487254447831950.2780.3380.4070.7450.129
Cairo50956514431410-58447812060.2820.3340.4210.7550.139
CBS460-129282970503369-2360.2800.3290.4090.7370.128
average48654913529497156427512060.2780.3340.4100.7440.132
best527565144335108265486432340.2820.3380.4210.7590.142
worst41952911724276045337901970.2710.3290.4010.7350.122














OPSPieCoco
Bill James0.7890.739
CHONE0.7600.759
Marcel0.7240.737
MINER0.6760.735
ZiPS0.7500.743
PECOTA0.8230.745
Cairo0.7170.755
CBS0.7220.737


Felix and Coco get the 'nod' from four of the eight systems apiece.

Felix has more power, Coco a little better on base and stolen base projections.

Wouldn't be a bad platoon, but, from what I've seen this Spring, Felix is a better hitter than the guy we saw last year.

So, don't trade for Coco, he'll be a malcontent or a blockade. It isn't about being on a winning team and being a role player. Otherwise he'd be content in Boston.


2 comments:

Colin Wyers said...

MINER is apparently a Marcels derivative from Jeff Sackmann, I guy who has a pretty good reputation. That said, it has absolutely no track record that I know of.

CAIRO is another Marcels derivative, again only released for this season.

The CBS projections are probably the least accurate of the bunch; I suspect that the Bill James projections aren't far behind.

If you stick to the big 4 (CHONE, PECOTA, ZiPS and Marcels) it's probably even more apparent that Pie is likely to be the better player on offense.

And let's not even talk about defense. Crisp is good; Pie has a chance to be an elite defender.

Harry Pavlidis said...

I found some more info on MINER at Fan Graphs - just Marcel plus some BABIP etc tossed in.