Is this Cedeno's Break-out season?

Mike Fontenot and Ronny Cedeno are fighting for a spot on the final roster. Both guys have hit well this Spring, but does it mean anything?

Several blogs have recently cited a 2006 John Dewan article on Spring SLG averages. Here's Tim Dierkes on the subject.

John Dewan came up with this piece of info a few years back:

A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.

John was kind enough to reply to my email asking for clarification on his statement. He told me he'd use a sample size of 35 ABs or more and that "better than normal" relates to SLG primarily.

Let's take a look at some of the younger and/or less established Cubs

Hitter	sSLG	cSLG	dif
Ronny Cedeno	0.588	0.349	0.239
Mike Fontenot	0.511	0.398	0.113
Felix Pie	0.458	0.333	0.125
Ryan Theriot	0.418	0.379	0.039
Geovany Soto	0.302	0.525	-0.223
Matt Murton	0.434	0.455	-0.021

Ronny only has 34 ABs, but close enough. I don't know if this matters or not, but here are some other numbers - ISO (slg - avg) and Bases per Hit (slg / avg). They may suggest Fontenot is doing very well, too.

Hitter	sISO	cISO	dif
Ronny Cedeno	0.264	0.102	0.162
Mike Fontenot	0.244	0.120	0.124
Felix Pie	0.187	0.118	0.069
Ryan Theriot	0.073	0.103	-0.030
Geovany Soto	0.069	0.200	-0.131
Matt Murton	0.076	0.159	-0.083

Hitter	sB/H	cB/H	dif
Ronny Cedeno	1.815	1.413	0.402
Mike Fontenot	1.914	1.432	0.482
Felix Pie	1.690	1.549	0.141
Ryan Theriot	1.212	1.373	-0.162
Geovany Soto	1.296	1.615	-0.319
Matt Murton	1.212	1.537	-0.325

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