Chico and the Z

Matt Chico faces Carlos Zambrano Saturday evening in DC. Chico debuted last year, and has made 36 starts as a big leaguer. In just a bit under 200 innings, he has walked 84 while striking out just 111. He has a FIP in the mid 5's and has struggled even more this year.

Chico throws four pitches, a four-seam fastball, along with a change, slider and the occasional curve. He throws a lot of fastballs, and seems to have some decent control and success with it. The slider doesn't catch the zone much, but hitters still chase it 52% of the time it is out of the zone. The overall whiff rate for that slider is nearly 30%. The fastball, on the other hand, comes in with a whiff rate of 8%. The curve doesn't look too bad, but he doesn't use it much, and it does get tagged more often than other pitches. The hammer is just 6% of his pitches thrown, but accounts for 22% of his home runs allowed.

	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	#	%
CH	80.9	7.8	8.1	138	17.4
CU	74.5	-2.2	-2.6	46	5.8
F4	86.9	4.5	11.5	423	53.5
SL	80.3	-2.7	3.0	184	23.3
	83.6	3.0	8.1	791

	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR	Swings
CH	61	15	10	18	33	1	62
CU	18	9	4	5	8	2	19
F4	164	91	14	75	75	4	168
SL	71	16	29	35	31	2	97
	314	131	57	133	147	9	346

	B%	CS%	SS%	F%	X%	HR%	Sw%
CH	44.2	10.9	7.2	13.0	23.9	0.7	44.9
CU	39.1	19.6	8.7	10.9	17.4	4.3	41.3
F4	38.8	21.5	3.3	17.7	17.7	0.9	39.7
SL	38.6	8.7	15.8	19.0	16.8	1.1	52.7
	39.7	16.6	7.2	16.8	18.6	1.1	43.7

	B:CS	ISZ%	corner%
CH	4.1	40.6	7.3
CU	2.0	47.8	4.4
F4	1.8	49.7	11.8
SL	4.4	37.0	9.2
	2.4	45.0	10.0

	Whiff%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%
CH	16.1	27.4	21.5
CU	21.1	27.3	37.5
F4	8.3	28.5	34.5
SL	29.9	52.0	27.4
	16.5	34.7	31.3

He faced the Cubs last year, beating them on the 4th of July. Saul Rivera and Ray King pitched the last two innings, and Chico was credited the win as the Nats shut-out the Cubs 6-0 at RFK. Chico struck out four and issued no walks. Soriano and Theriot doubled, while DeRosa and Rich Hill singled. Hill and Soriano, along with Fontenot and Rob Bowen, were the K victims.

So, we know he's capable of beating the current Cubs. Hopefully Zambrano will stop the losing "streak" before it becomes one. Carlos has been amazing this year. His control has been great. After two straight years with over 100 walks, he's only allowed five in 33 2/3 innings.

If the Cubs can get ahead in the count and avoid having to try and chase Chico's slider, it could be a good game. If he hangs one of those curveballs, even better.