Cubs face Jeff Suppan

Jeff Suppan rode into Milwaukee as a free agent in 2007. He was rewarded for three decent seasons with the Cardinals. By rewarded, I mean overpaid. He's got a four year deal plus a club option for '11. He's guaranteed $42 million and will make over $50,000,000.00 if the option is picked up.

Baseball Reference comps him (at age 32) with Jaime Navarro, Pedro Astacio and Scott Erickson. PECOTA goes with Chris Bosio, Mark Gubicza, Aaron Sele and Milt Pappas. Gubicza, BTW, Zambrano's top comp in PECOTA and shows up on Brandon Webb's list, too. The Gub' is the glue.

Suppan projects as follows (ERA,WHIP,K:BB,HR9):

PECOTA       4.84  1.47  1.63  1.17
Bill James   4.59  1.44  1.66  1.01
CHONE        4.94  1.53  1.58  1.02
Marcel       4.65  1.48  1.67  0.94
ZiPS         4.76  1.49  1.68  1.11

Not exactly a great #3 - which is where he is with Yovani Gallardo healthy.

Fangraphs lists a fastball, slider, curve and a change. A rare cutter, too - but not last year. PITCHf/x, from his 2007 home games, shows the four pitches. Here is his PFX chart.



This one, broken out by pitch, is better:



Here's plate location - 735 pitches total



Throws plenty curves in the dirt, which is something that should keep Jason Kendall busy. The change stays in on righties, the fastball tends to be up and up.

Outcomes - looks to me like the slider is the most effective pitch.

	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR	All
FA	91	52	15	61	58	0	277
CU	49	9	7	10	13	1	89
SL	56	16	14	32	30	1	149
CH	73	35	15	35	60	2	220
	269	112	51	138	161	4	735

	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR	All
FA	32.9%	18.8%	5.4%	22.0%	20.9%	0.0%	37.7%
CU	55.1%	10.1%	7.9%	11.2%	14.6%	1.1%	12.1%
SL	37.6%	10.7%	9.4%	21.5%	20.1%	0.7%	20.3%
CH	33.2%	15.9%	6.8%	15.9%	27.3%	0.9%	29.9%
	36.6%	15.2%	6.9%	18.8%	21.9%	0.5%

	SwRt	Whiff	B:CS
FA	0.484	0.112	1.8
CU	0.348	0.226	5.4
SL	0.517	0.182	3.5
CH	0.509	0.134	2.1
	0.482	0.144	2.4