Cubs vs. Odalis Perez - First Visit to Nat's New Park

After a split in Denver, the Cubs head for the nation's capital to face the struggling Nationals. All three games will feature left-handed starters for the Nationals. The Cubs will counter with Ryan Demptser, Carlos Zambrano and, in Sunday's matinee, Ted Lilly.

Getting on a plane after a loss is not a team's favorite thing to do, but the 15-7 Cubs have to feel good about where they are and the depth they have already exhibited. It is early, but no one would want to trade places with the Washington club. At 6-16, nothing has gone right and it appears to be a long season ahead in their new ballpark.

Friday night features the "ace" of the Nationals' staff, Odalis Perez. The veteran lefty has earned that role by staying healthy. Unfortunately, due to turn 31 in June, Odalis hasn't pitched a full slate since 2004. Last year was the most he pitched since 2004, and that was 26 starts and less than 140 innings for the Royals. So far, in 2008, he's 0-3 in 26.7 innings, but with a 3.38 ERA. Which is a mirage. With a FIP of 4.74 and a high LOB rate of 82%, he'll regress towards the mid-to-upper 4's as the season goes on.

Against Cubs teams in the past, he's had four starts, and none in the previous three seasons. In 2002, he threw one of his two one-hitters that year against the Cubs.

On April 26, 2002, in Wrigley Field against Kerry Wood, Perez set down the first 18 hitters in order. Corey Patterson led off the 7th with a single to break-up the perfect game and the no-no. Chris Stynes promptly grounded into a double-play, and Perez cruised home and ended up facing the minimum.

That was a long time ago. Wood's our closer and Stynes was done after 2004. Of course, Corey is still a lead-off man, but for the Reds. Perez is not a Dodger anymore.

I'm not sure what Odalis threw back then (he isn't in the Neyer/James guide), but Fan Graphs has him throwing a fastball, cutter, curve and change in 2008. Going back to 2005-6, he also had a slider. In addition to dropping the slider, Fangraphs shows that the curve is used less, and the cutter is used more. But I'm not buying it. Gameday has its own take, since his games so far are using the already-being-replaced pitch ID approach (it's MLBAM's).

ESPN has something that makes more sense to me - fastball, slider, curve and change.

Taking his 2008 starts in Washington, I find 4 pitches, and agree with ESPN's data.



I'll be back late tomorrow night with a report on Friday's game data, a look at the next Nat's starter, and, maybe, a little more on Rich Hill and Ted Lilly's curveballs.