Cubs Getaway Day at The Cell - Buerhle f/x

In the final tilt of the 2008 Crosstown Classic, a game I'll actually get to watch, the Cubs will attempt to avoid being swept out of The Cell. Problem is, they'll have to do it against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.

In his last four starts, Mark Buehrle has lowered his ERA from 5.20 to 4.04. Throwing eight innings each time out, he's only required more than 100 pitches twice. In his last start, in Dodger Stadium, the big lefty didn't yield a single walk, and allowed just six hits, including a solo home run for the lone score. Only the Pirates managed to score as many as two runs during this four start run.

IP  32
W    3
L    0
H   24
BB   4
K   15
HR   2

Amongst pitchers with at least four starts in the month of June, Buerhle's five (including June 1 vs. Tampa) rank 9th in ERA (1.89) and 10th in WHIP (0.97). Mark's certainly not unhittable at the moment, but he's obviously been very good lately.

---

Mark Buerhle's stuff is good, but not overpowering. He has very good command of four pitches, and even his change-up hangs around near the zone. What is most remarkable about that change is how close a flight path it has to his fastball (typically a two-seamer, as best as I can tell).

Here's a breakdown of his stuff, based on over 3200 pitches, going back to April of 2007.

This table is sortable

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	56	630	79.4	7.2	5.6	128	1,049	5.1	12.24	49.71	23.17	38.16	17.06	1.2	0.503	1.2
CU	108	273	72.1	-3.9	-3.4	139	564	2.2	9.71	43.04	18.29	30.77	34.76	0.3	0.431	1.3
FA	150	441	86.5	7.5	6.9	132	1,254	1.5	20.30	44.67	8.33	35.26	28.22	0.5	0.452	1.8
FC	211	904	87.3	2.2	8.8	166	1,137	1.8	14.44	40.09	12.98	28.69	29.02	0.7	0.556	1.1
SL	177	598	82.7	-1.8	3.5	204	508	1.7	18.58	57.55	14.80	44.72	18.22	0.8	0.537	1.2
	702	2846	83.0	2.5	5.4	159	941	2.1	15.39	46.84	15.34	35.24	24.96	0.7	0.507	1.3

Teams are stacking up with right-handed hitters against Buehrle, and probably for good reason. For example, that curveball must be awfully tough to deal with from the left-side. For righties, it is likely he's using it as back-door pitch, to get called strikes.

Given his excellent command of his full set of pitches, Mark is able to use just about any of them in any situation. First pitch is a good example, and the slider is a favored pitch where most guys throw heat. He doesn't like to throw the change-up to lefties, however.

		#	CH	CU	SL	FA	FC
L	first	193	5.7	15.5	31.1	13.0	34.7
L	ahead	226	8.0	19.0	23.5	18.6	31.0
L	behind	126	4.8	4.8	23.8	33.3	33.3
L	even	130	13.8	20.8	19.2	27.7	18.5
L	full	27	11.1	7.4	33.3	18.5	29.6
R	first	772	18.0	11.4	19.8	27.1	23.7
R	ahead	768	21.2	13.3	16.4	6.1	43.0
R	behind	664	23.0	1.8	26.7	19.3	29.2
R	even	479	30.3	11.9	22.1	5.8	29.9
R	full	163	18.4	8.6	22.1	17.8	33.1

What does this stuff look like?

Click images to enlarge

From the catcher's view, here's a faux-3D look.



Now, in the top pane, a bird's eye view, and, in the lower pane, a view from first base.



You can really see a couple things of interest, when you put it all together. First, the change-up and the fastball track close enough to be indistinguishable, until the last moment (too late). The slider and the cutter converge, but he looks to be dropping down just a wee bit more when releasing the slider. For that big curveball, he is coming more over the top.

---

Pressure's on Sean Marshall to keep things under control and give the bullpen a short outing. No day off this week, so a flight to SFO is on tap for a four game set at AT&T Park. After that, three in Busch III.