Cubs Still Hot at Home, Hit the Road Again - Pitchf/x Preview

After yet another sweep at home, the Cubs head to Toronto and Tampa Bay for some interleague action.

Here's a first look at the Blue Jays with PITCHf/x.

A.J. Burnett is a hard-throwing righty that several Cubs are already familiar with. Jim Edmonds has faced him 26 times (1.186 OPS) and Reed Johnson and Ted Lilly were teammates on the Jays. Derrek Lee, Ryan Dempster, along with the injured Chad Fox, played with Burnett in Florida.
(Source: Baseball Reference)

Burnett's fastball can top 100 mph. He's only done it twice in 2008, but I have 41 three-digit heaters for A.J., topping out at 101.3. The 2007 data may be a little on the high side, but there's no doubt about it, A.J. Burnett throws smoke.

In Sepetmber of 2007, Burnett started throwing a slider. He uses it very little, less than 10 times a game, if at all.



Here's a look at the spin movement. The slider is thrown hard, and even his change can come in over 90mph.



And some more info on the pitches and their outcomes.

cfx	#	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOOZ%	TaISZ%	HR%	NKS
CH	121	95	26	88.6	-7.0	4.0	237	1,032	5.0	10.74	35.54	25.58	16.05	18.87	1.7	0.667
CU	685	373	312	82.9	6.3	-5.7	228	987	3.0	6.86	41.02	51.60	33.97	35.63	0.1	0.403
F2	517	258	259	95.7	-8.5	6.4	232	1,438	2.0	16.05	44.87	7.76	27.46	23.28	0.6	0.500
F4	1053	483	570	96.5	-4.0	9.7	202	1,419	1.8	15.10	46.82	15.62	30.83	21.67	0.8	0.500
SL	24	16	8	87.1	0.4	5.4	178	692	11.0	8.33	50.00	33.33	38.89	12.50	0.0	0.600
	2400	1225	1175	92.0	-2.1	4.3	218	1,273	2.3	12.67	44.21	24.03	30.45	24.90	0.6	0.493

It's too soon to judge the slider, but the change-up doesn't look like much of anything, other than a show-me pitch. The fastballs and the curveball are money. They are why he comes in with a non-K Slugging (NKS) 10 points less than the league (.503). His control, however, is slightly below average.

He's good at getting ground balls with his two-seamer and change-up.

cfx	X+HR	GO	AO
CH	18	8	5
CU	67	35	14
F2	129	62	15
F4	181	61	64
SL	5	0	3
	400	166	101

With that ground ball rate, the change-up's high-ish homer rate tells you it is a pitch that he makes mistakes on, but his good change is tough to handle. Yes, I know that's just two homers in 121 pitches, but 2 out of 18 balls in play going out is rather high. Something to keep an eye on, but to take with a grain of salt-of-the-small-sample.

Up next, Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch, but, first, I'll take a look at the Blue Jays hitters.