Jose Ascanio, Neal Cotts and Defeating the Platoon

Neal Cotts is the only lefty in the Cubs' bullpen, since Scott Eyre is on the DL and Carmen Pignatiello is nowhere near the big leagues. With Kevin Hart recovering from wildness and a concussion in Iowa, Jose Ascanio is a key middle reliever, and late inning power arm in times of need.

Ascanio should see plenty of work when the Cubs are behind and/or when the starting pitcher doesn't get past the middle of the game. If he pitches well enough, he could take innings away from Michael Wuertz and Bob Howry, but his spotty command will make that unlikely for now.

Cotts, meanwhile, has a fairly obvious job, but he may get a surprising amount of help from Ascanio. Jose's major league numbers, mediocre and just 17 appearances, look very close for both left- and right-handed hitters. Oddly enough, Neal Cotts, in 230 games, has very balanced platoon numbers, too.

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Using PITCHf/x, here's a look at the pitches for Ascanio and Cotts. Some of Jose's data is from 2007 with the Braves, but all of Neal's numbers come from 2008.

Click each image to enlarge

First up is the basic spin movement graph. Numbers are inches of spin deflection from a straight (gravity included) trajectory. Backspin gives "rise" and a positive number and the y-axis. Side spin is on the x-axis and is from the catcher's perspective, so negative means in on a righty.





A flat, 2D view is helpful to see the effects of the above, when you look at two (above and side) together. You can also get an idea for release points. The lines are drawn from right (mound) to left (plate), and go, in most cases, well past the front plane of home plate. The time span for each line is 1/2 second, so, the faster and straighter, the longer the line.





Ascanio has good sinking and tailing movement. He throws from hard from that low arm slot, but can't always keep all that good stuff under control.

Cotts, throwing a little more overhand, doesn't vary much up/down on spin, but can move the ball in and out to both sides. The cutter, though, is a rare bird, and may just be noisy four-seamers or really hard sliders. In any case, there isn't a whole lot of movement.

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To start digging into their lefty/righty tendencies, and utility for Lou's late inning schemes, here are the numbers on the pitch effectiveness and usage patterns.

Jose Ascanio

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	4	1	85.7	-6.6	6.1	226	1,102	2.0	20.00	40.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.0	0.000	0.0
CU	1	14	77.4	8.2	-3.9	245	1,007	3.7	6.67	6.67	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.0	0.000	1.3
F2	42	15	94.7	-8.4	4.9	240	1,320	2.2	10.53	49.12	14.29	37.14	25.00	0.0	0.429	0.8
F4	28	80	95.1	-6.6	7.6	221	1,371	1.8	18.52	56.48	21.31	37.93	15.71	0.9	0.680	0.4
FS	47	28	86.0	-7.7	0.8	192	969	5.0	9.33	52.00	20.51	36.54	10.00	1.3	0.529	0.3
SL	2	33	83.4	1.8	0.8	166	310	4.5	14.29	37.14	38.46	26.09	29.41	0.0	0.800	1.0
	124	171	90.3	-5.5	3.9	212	1,110	2.8	13.56	48.81	20.83	32.97	18.00	0.7	0.571	0.5

		#	CH	F4	F2	FS	SL	CU
L	first	35	5.7	25.7	42.9	25.7	0.0	0.0
L	ahead	32	6.3	28.1	15.6	43.8	6.3	0.0
L	behind	29	0.0	13.8	48.3	37.9	0.0	0.0
L	even	21	0.0	28.6	19.0	47.6	0.0	4.8
L	full	7	0.0	0.0	57.1	42.9	0.0	0.0

		#	CH	F4	F2	FS	SL	CU
R	first	47	0.0	40.4	17.0	14.9	10.6	17.0
R	ahead	41	2.4	48.8	4.9	7.3	34.1	2.4
R	behind	41	0.0	61.0	2.4	17.1	12.2	7.3
R	even	37	0.0	40.5	8.1	24.3	21.6	5.4
R	full	5	0.0	20.0	20.0	40.0	20.0	0.0

Ascanio works lefties with that hard splitter down-and-away, and basically discards his other breaking stuff unless he's facing a righty. The righties will get the curve and slider, and a lot less of the splitter. Heat, however, is served up regularly, coming at you from 3rd base side. Nasty.

One point of concern, despite the arm angle and sink, Jose gets more than his share of fly outs. especially with the pitches he's throwing to lefties. Something to keep in mind.

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Neal Cotts

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	0	5	83.4	4.3	7.1	149	991	2.0	0.00	40.00	50.00	33.33	50.00	0.0
F2	2	13	92.0	7.1	8.1	138	1,423	10.0	20.00	26.67	0.00	0.00	22.22	6.7	1.333	1.0
F4	60	55	92.0	4.1	10.8	160	1,515	1.8	15.65	44.35	29.41	24.14	26.67	0.9	0.438	1.9
FC	2	2	90.9	0.4	7.6	178	985	1.0	25.00	50.00	100.00	66.67	50.00	0.0
SL	37	16	85.6	-2.0	4.2	209	602	1.5	18.87	49.06	26.92	40.63	25.81	0.0	0.625	0.8
	101	91	90.0	2.6	8.6	172	1,231	1.9	16.67	44.27	29.41	28.57	26.89	1.0	0.593	1.6

		#	CH	F4	F2	FC	SL
L	first	22	0.0	40.9	0.0	0.0	59.1
L	ahead	30	0.0	60.0	6.7	3.3	30.0
L	behind	24	0.0	83.3	0.0	4.2	12.5
L	even	17	0.0	47.1	0.0	0.0	52.9
L	full	8	0.0	62.5	0.0	0.0	37.5

		#	CH	F4	F2	FC	SL
R	first	23	0.0	52.2	26.1	4.3	17.4
R	ahead	37	10.8	56.8	2.7	2.7	27.0
R	behind	21	0.0	71.4	23.8	0.0	4.8
R	even	9	11.1	66.7	11.1	0.0	11.1
R	full	1	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Facing lefties, the Southpaw Cotts relies on his four-seamer and slider. When the platoon is working against him, he mixes it up, and is no longer simple power pitcher. The fastball is still there, but the slider drops off against righties, and he introduces some two-seamers and even some change-ups. The slider is still there when he's ahead, but he doesn't start righties off with it, which is something a lefty can flip a coin on.

If Cotts avoids falling behind them, he can be tough on righties. He'll throw a bunch of different pitches if he gets ahead. Otherwise, its what really amounts to a pretty straight fastball, which can be scary.

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Simply put, the Cubs could use another lefty in the bullpen, but Ascanio is a nice option in the middle of ballgames. Cotts seems to perform well against righties, but, if his command is shaky, I don't want to see much of him outside of the LOOGY job.