Smoltz Returns as Closer - with New Arm Angle

John Smoltz is back, and as a closer. He's adding another phase to his career, going from starter, to closer, back to starter, and now back to closer with a new arm angle. John is dropping down and throwing 3/4 now. This change eliminates his splitter, but adds tail and sink to his fastball.

Smoltz's return from the DL did not go well, as he blew the save in the top of the 9th. John's stuff looked good on MLB.tv, but he got too much of the plate - and paid for it. Kevin Gregg blew his save opportunity in the bottom half, and the Braves ended up winning in the 10th, for none other than Will Ohman.

A comparison of his PITCH f/x data - spin movement and release points - should reveal some degree of arm tilt in his latest outing. Taking a look at his last pre-DL start in Atlanta, we can get a baseline.



You can see the splitter (change) that he can no longer throw from the low arm angle. I suspect the curve is toast, too.



Looking at him as a closer, we have to keep two things in mind: 1) He isn't going to work in all his pitches, even if he had four or five to go to; and 2) The sample size is smaller than the start, obviously.



You can see he stuck to the fastball and the slider. You can also see the tilt effect from the arm angle - his once straight fastball has sink and tail, as expected. The slider slings more and drops less. You can see the difference in Smoltz's release points, too.



Let me put those all together to make it easier. The release point change is clear.



For the spin movement, I'll get rid of the curve and change, and switch some colors for the before/after.



Matt Lentzner is certainly on to something with this arm angle/spin movement axis concept. It is pretty clearly working out, at least it helps me ID pitches more accurately.