Ted Lilly Curves - Updated thru June 10

Ted Lilly's curveball remains relatively scarce. He has thrown well his last two starts, and the change-up remains favored. In the bottom of the image below (click to enlarge), you can see curves thrown by count, by year.



A little look behind those numbers

1. Righties are seeing half as many first-pitch curves in 2008


2. 0-1 saw a huge change - lefties are getting half, and righties just over a third (41% in 2007 down to 15% in 2008)


3. Last year, 1-1 counts saw curves to lefites 8% of the time. Not one in 2008


4. For righties, they're seeing a third of last year's 19% (6.5%) on 1-1


5. He's throwing less on 2-2 and on 3-2 (never throws a curve on 3-2 to a lefty)

This is a pitch Ted is more likely to use if he's ahead in the count. He's throwing it less in all situations, against all hitters. Of all counts, only 0-2 against lefties has had an increase in curveball rate. All others either went down, or stayed the same (basically, just those that were at 0% to begin with). He's thrown 4-times as many curves against lefties in 0-2 counts this year, up from 5% in 2007 to 22% in 2008.

We'll see how this goes over the Summer. I'll pay a little more attention to how he uses his change-up next time around.