Updated tweaked the ID and some charts - see end of post
Mr. Pesky Fish, Jeremy Hermida, did the Cubs in, again. But Jeff Samardzija made his debut for the Cubs
Jeff Samardzija's debut had mixed results, but he seems to have been received well. While he blew the save by giving up the game-tying run, Samardzija showed good stuff and a lot of "poise", according to various voices on the radio. Striking out two and allowing two hits, he gave the Cubs two innings on 31 pitches, 23 for strikes. That's better control than Ryan Dempster had, as the Cubs' starter allowed six walks in six innings, tossing 110 pitches. Dempster still lowered his ERA to 2.99 by allowing just a single runner to cross home plate.
Analyzing a new pitcher's stuff is always fun. So, Mr. Samardzija presented a nice cap to a long week. A W flag to fly would've been nice, too. But the offense is to blame there, and Jeremy Hermida and his home run of Bob Howry (also a problem).
Samardzija threw the ball very hard, hitting 99.9 at release, by my calculations. He did seem to lose some velocity as his outing went on. Below, you can see the dip. I've got him throwing three two-seam fastballs, once of which is the last pitch. (Update: see bottom of post)
Along with the fastball(s), you've got a slider and a splitter. Or "splitty", Jeff calls it on his "blog".
The splitter doesn't look too consistent (Updated see below for more). Nice slider, though. Release points are pretty consistent. Seems to have two spots.
We'll need more data to sort that out. Here are some more aggregations - spin movement and flight paths.
| cfx | L | R | mph | pfx_x | pfx_z | deg | rpm | B:CS | corner% | Sw% | Whiff% | SwOZ% | TaIZ% | HR% | NKS | G:AO |
| F2 | 2 | 1 | 97.4 | -11.3 | 5.6 | 244 | 1,734 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 0.0 | |||
| F4 | 9 | 8 | 97.7 | -9.3 | 7.6 | 231 | 1,663 | 1.0 | 5.88 | 64.71 | 9.09 | 50.00 | 25.00 | 0.0 | 0.600 | 0.0 |
| FS | 1 | 2 | 85.1 | -5.4 | 1.2 | 199 | 691 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 100.00 | 33.33 | 0.0 | ||||
| SL | 0 | 7 | 84.1 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 211 | 254 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 57.14 | 25.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | 0.0 | 0.000 | |
| 12 | 18 | 93.2 | -7.2 | 5.4 | 224 | 1,245 | 1.2 | 3.33 | 56.67 | 17.65 | 36.36 | 30.00 | 0.0 | 0.500 | 0.3 |
I'll probably check Samardzija's two innings out on MLB.TV. Should be interesting to see.
Update While watching the game, yes, I realize now that's a pitch-out. Also, the first two-seamer by my ID could've just been a four-seamer in the dirt. It didn't look different, other than be way down, from his other fastballs to that point.
Cantu's double was impressive, high heat, up and over. Ripped down the line. Brenly noted it, that Jeff Samardzija didn't see too many guys who could do that in the Minors.
The next "two-seam" looked like the other fastballs, but with less tail. Hard to be confident on that ID. The next pitch was a splitter, by the PFX data. It was not a good one, and, Brenly noted it could've been a straight change or a splitter. I'll go with splitter. Bad splitter.
Brenly and Kasper call the 2nd pitch to Uggla a straight change, but it looks, and PFX's, just like the other pitches I, and they, had called sliders to that point. The next one to Uggla was a better slider.
Another missed ID is on a "splitter" that was just a bad slider. It looked like he lost his grip on it, and then he reached for the resin bag.
The first pitch to his last batter looked like a different fastball, but flights straight over the aggregate of the other fastballs.
Here are some updated charts.
I'm looking at that split in the release points, but nothing firm yet. Some of it looks like pitch type, or it looks like an inning to inning difference, or it could be other things, too. Need. More. Data.
4 comments:
His average velocity was 97.4 for the 2-seamer and 97.7 for the 4-seamer? That's ridiculous. The thing I really liked aside from the great movement on all of his pitches was how easy he throws it. It just explodes out of his hand.
It's hard to say if those were two-seamers, so I've got a view that shows them put together. Remember, it is a small sample, so the average speeds are not reliable. Also consider the decline in speed in the 8th, when he was mostly throwing breaking stuff, too.
But, yes, I agree, he throws some easy cheese, and the ball is almost never straight. I suspect he belongs in the bullpen, until he shows he can do something with a 3rd or 4th pitch. That slider is shaky, as a 2nd pitch.
It's also not reliable since it's out of relief. No way he could maintain that for 6 or 7 innings, but even averaging that for 2 innings is impressive. It's about 60 mph better than I would average.
I'm torn on the starter/bullpen thing. Someone at his age is going to improve his secondary pitches. They won't improve in the bullpen so the hope is he helps solidify the pen this year and then competes for a rotation spot in 2009. You've got to give him some time to improve those pitches because his overall stuff is just too good to waste in relief in my opinion. He's got age on his side, both actual age and "baseball" age if you will since he just started focusing on one sport 2 years ago.
Harry, I think I've managed to duplicate your graph of Samardzija's pitches. Care to take a look, tell me if I'm barking up the right tree?
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