Cubs in Atlanta - Charlie Morton f/x

Simply put, Charlie Morton has good stuff, but he's wild. Or was wild. Morton's last two starts were each seven innings, one walk and four k's. He allowed just two earned runs on nine total hits over the two games.

Here are some numbers from all of Morton's starts (click headers to sort)

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	82	77	80.9	-10.1	4.6	245	1,280	3.6	9.43	59.12	31.91	42.53	17.24	1.3	0.576	2.1
CU	42	56	75.6	6.3	-6.4	225	960	3.9	7.14	30.61	23.33	18.18	35.90	1.0	0.500	0.8
FA	225	341	91.5	-7.9	6.9	229	1,377	2.2	11.13	45.94	13.85	30.26	28.92	0.4	0.383	1.3
SL	6	61	84.2	1.4	3.8	165	592	2.1	14.93	34.33	13.04	22.22	39.02	1.5	1.100	4.0
	355	535	87.3	-6.0	4.8	227	1,254	2.5	10.67	45.73	18.67	30.22	28.25	0.7	0.469	1.5

Now, only his last two starts. Beware of sample size and park effects

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	15	16	80.3	-9.6	3.8	248	1,196	1.8	12.90	64.52	30.00	38.89	0.00	0.0	0.444	2.0
CU	14	14	75.9	6.1	-6.9	221	997	4.3	3.57	25.00	14.29	15.00	44.44	0.0	0.500	1.0
FA	49	69	91.0	-7.7	5.8	234	1,272	2.4	13.56	44.07	15.38	33.33	30.77	0.8	0.269	1.8
SL	1	7	84.1	2.0	2.4	157	486	2.0	25.00	25.00	0.00	20.00	40.00	0.0	0.000	0.0
	79	106	86.6	-5.5	3.4	231	1,184	2.6	12.43	43.78	18.52	30.36	27.08	0.5	0.325	1.6

Not too many differences, and nothing major in those cases. Before moving on to plate locations and balls-in-play, take a look at those four pitches.

First, aggregate spin movement (click images to enlarge)



Now all of his pitches - even going game-by-game, you can often pick out two different fastballs, possibly a change/splitter (or good splitter/bad splitter). He may also chuck that slider at two different speeds.



Flight paths - this is what I mean by good stuff, and why I think Morton has it.



The curveball stands out, but good luck with the other three.

Going back to his recent success, nothing jumped out stuff-wise, but, as I've noted recently, that first table doesn't really track to start-by-start success. It is, however, proving useful for gauging overall nastiness. It needs some tweaking, but I digress....

Looking at in/out of the zone, swing rates, whiff rates doesn't solve the riddle on Charlie Morton.



So, he's actually throwing a few less strikes in the last two starts? The above "table" (sorry 'bout that) actually splits the last two starts out and excludes them from the recent=0 group.

So, I don't really get the success in the last two starts, yet. Charlie Morton's stuff and control haven't really differentiated themselves. About batted ball data?

According to Fangraphs, he's at .291 for the year and .200 for the last two starts. So, along with cutting down on the walks, his BABIP went down. I'm gonna guess that, if the Cubs are patient they'll get some walks, and they'll be a bit more lucky, or so I'll hope.