Marmol - Before and After ASG

On July 4th, and after the All Star Game, I posted some numbers on Carlos Marmol, amongst others. The first look at Marmol was more detailed. Some things were dead-ends, but there were some question marks.

Now, it's time to look back at the home appearances by Marmol before the break (6/21 - 7/12), and since the break (7/24 - 8/5). I picked the dates simple to approximate the sample sizes, using the "after" as the baseline.

There is one big thing that jumps out - pitch selection. Carlos throws, essentially, two pitches - fastball (FA) and slurve (SL).

Before ASG
46 FA
76 SL

After ASG
69 FA
71 SL

As you can see, I have more pitches in the post-ASG sample, and the FA:SL mix is almost even. Before the break, it was a lot more slurves than fastballs. This shift happened for both left- and right-handed hitters.

Here's a look at this average PFX (spin movement) by month. August is a very small sample, but it looks like his "average" slurve is more consistent than the fastball.



Going back to the before/after samples, here are his pitch speeds, sorted by fastest to slowest. Notice the extra MPH he's picked-up. Again, you can see the pitch selection shift.



In terms of spin movement, it's hard to say he's changed too much, but, in the fastballs, there are some interesting strays in the "after" group. The "before" group is a little lower, overall. Even without including the strays, there's a small difference. Too small to be meaningful, however.



Release points are also pretty stable, although, on the charts left (Marmol's right), you can see some extension of the cloud in the "before" groups.



Finally, plate locations. Here's a look, but I'll break it down into some numbers below.



This should give you an idea of how different he is, in terms of effectiveness in and out of the zone. Note, the totals include hit batters, but the swing/take numbers do not. I don't believe a batter makes a "swing or take?" decision when he's getting pegged.

when	cfx	#		iT	iSw	iWh	oT	oSw	oW		ISZ:OSZ		iSwR	iWhR		oSwR	oWhR
before	FA	49		6	16	1	24	1	0		0.88		0.727	0.063		0.040	0.000
after	FA	69		22	23	9	16	8	1		1.88		0.511	0.391		0.333	0.125
when	cfx	#		iT	iSw	iWh	oT	oSw	oW		ISZ:OSZ		iSwR	iWhR		oSwR	oWhR
before	SL	81		25	20	6	29	7	3		1.25		0.444	0.300		0.194	0.429
after	SL	71		16	17	5	30	8	2		0.87		0.515	0.294		0.211	0.250

You could argue Marmol's slurve is less effective, but his fastball is certainly looking a lot better. More strikes, and more trouble for hitters, as both takes in the zone and whiffs in the zone are up. The kicker is, swings out of the zone on fastballs are also up, and more whiffs. But, there are just 24 total swings out of the zone in the entire sample - both time periods, both pitches. Still, only 1 of 24 fastballs out of the zone, before the ASG, were chased - but 8 of 16 since!

So, Marmol's resurgence is apparently due to improved and more frequently thrown fastball. This only covered home games, but my next look at Marmol (who knows when) will break his season down, month-by-month.