Carlos Zambrano: "I'm Back" - No Hitter Reviewed in PITCHf/x

Carlos Zambrano's no-hitter was spectacular. He came out throwing some serious heat, and was still throwing hard in the 9th inning. Carlos attributed this power to improved use of his legs. When asked if he realized he was hitting 98 in the first inning, he said he saw it on the scoreboard. When asked what he thought, his response was simple - "I'm Back".

Using Gameday's PITCHf/x data, what follows is a breakdown of Zambrano's stuff on this historic occasion. First, some definitions.

Pitch ID:
F2 = Two-seam fastball
F4 = Four-seam fastball
FC = Cutter
FS = Splitter
SL = Slider

Spin Movement
Measured in inches, and in the "x" and "z" dimensions (lateral and vertical, respectively), this is the difference in movement from the actual pitch to an identical pitch without spin. Also referred to as spin deflection. X values that are negative indicate movement to the catcher's left. Negative y values mean the ball dropped more than would've been predicted by gravity's force alone.

Release Point
Location of the pitch 55 ft. from home plate. A close approximation of actual release points. Measured in feet, and, like Spin Movement, negative numbers on the x-axis mean "left" of center, from the catcher's view.

Plate Location
Also in feet, from the catcher's view. Strike zone is "typical" zone, as called, from 1.5 ft. to 3.5 ft. above the ground. The "plate" is two feet wide in the graphs (but not the stats ... see below).

Pitch Outcomes
Swing = swing rate (swings divided by pitches)
Whiff = whiff rate (misses divided by swings)
B:CS = balls/called strikes, as called by the umpire
ISZ = rate of pitch in the zone; uses the PITCHf/x operator defined top/bottom values for each hitter, and a standard 17 inch plate.
Paint = rate of pitch out of zone, but within the "two foot plate" discussed above - in other words, just off the edge, not more than a ball's width.
Chase = swing rate, but for only pitches out of the zone
Watch = take rate for pitches in the strike zone, without regard to the umpire's call

Now, the data.


The tables are sortable, the images can be clicked and enlarged.

CFX	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
F2	15	1	14	0.6000	0.0000	5.0	0.4667	0.1333	0.3750	0.1429
F4	31	21	10	0.4839	0.2667	0.7	0.6452	0.0645	0.4545	0.5000
FC	40	34	6	0.4000	0.1875	1.5	0.4500	0.1250	0.2273	0.3889
FS	14	14	0	0.4286	0.6667	-	0.0000	0.0714	0.4286	-
SL	7	1	6	0.2857	0.5000	0.7	0.5714	0.1429	0.0000	0.5000

Spin Movement

All pitches:



Average pitch:



Flight path for average pitch:



Release Points

All pitches:



Average pitch:



Also see the flights path under Spin Movement

Plate Locations



Pitch Speed by Inning




I really think the performance Carlos had speaks for itself, so I'll leave you with just a few thoughts.

First, Big Z was throwing hard. Second, he had terrific control. Was that obvious enough?

Zambrano kept the splitter either in the dirt or just out of the zone - except two really wide ones, including the final strike to Darin Erstad.

Carlos didn't rely on his slider much, and he didn't need to. With that much velocity while pounding the strike zone, there wasn't much of a need. Only two batted balls left the infield, which tells you how difficult it was for the Astros to line him up.

If you look back at the flight paths, what is most striking is the consistent plane on all the pitches - except the splitter. His release points were pretty consistent,
and, despite being around the plate, he gave up very little down and over the middle, so there wasn't much to hit all night.