Jake Peavy f/x and Cubs Trade Prospects (updated)

Jake Peavy is the hot commodity on the trade market, already. The Padres are looking for a couple starting pitchers and a centerfielder. (Update) middle infielders (according to GM Kevin Towers). We're talking major league ready ballplayers. The Padres will want players who will remain under their control for a few years, too. What do the Cubs have in that regard? Perhaps a fair amount, but not enough.

Felix Pie (never mind)
Sean Marshall
Randy Wells
Angel Guzman
Kevin Hart
Donald Veal
Update:
Oh, we've got plenty of middle infielders. Theriot, Barney, Mota, Cedeno, Fontenot, Thomas and on and on. Are the prospects major league ready? Will a player who already has service time be of interest to San Diego? Can I safely assume Kahlil Greene and his declining skills and lousy contract come with Peavy?

Problem here is the centerfielder, and None of the Cubs pitching prospects are that hot, with the possible exception of Guzman, who, despite elbow surgery, still has electric stuff. Sean Marshall is looking like a reliable mid/back rotation guy, and the rest are rather shaky.

As far as centerfielders go, Pie is the only quasi-realistic candidate I can come up with. Tyler Colvin is not close to being ready, Sam Fuld is a 6th or 7th OF at best, and 4-A bats Micah Hoffpauir and Josh Kroeger don't look like centerfielders.

I'm just pulling that list from my, umm, back pocket, and there are other pitchers. Esmalin Caridad, currently with the Mesa AFL club, has some potential, and will be the subject of an upcoming post.

So, although Jake Peavy and his Cy Young resume aren't likely to be headed to Chicago, a PITCHf/x scouting report is in order. First thing to know about Peavy is arm slot. He'll drop WAY down about once per game, and will sling a little lower than normal quite a bit. I'll gloss over those facts in this analysis. Pitch ID's are my own, not Gameday's.

Click images for larger version, and the tables are sortable.

What He Throws (Fastball [includes two- and four-seamers] "FA", Change [splitter?] "CH", Curveball "CU", Slider "SL", Cutter/Slutter "FC")

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	327	85.7	-6.6	3.8	233.7	951.9
CU	107	76.6	6.0	-5.0	229.3	852.8
FA	3100	94.4	-7.6	9.1	219.4	1,594.8
FC	1233	87.3	2.0	4.1	154.8	630.4
SL	627	82.3	6.3	2.0	151.7	822.9
	5394	90.5	-3.4	6.5	197.9	1,230.9

Spin Movement (deviation, in inches, from path of spin-less ball; catcher's view)



Flight Paths




When he throws it

By Count

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	CU LHH	FA LHH	FC LHH	SL LHH	RHH	CH RHH	CU RHH	FA RHH	FC RHH	SL RHH
1341	0	0	675	0.0830	0.0222	0.6978	0.1748	0.0222	666	0.0225	0.0045	0.6847	0.1967	0.0916
673	0	1	325	0.0831	0.0554	0.5015	0.3385	0.0215	348	0.0517	0.0057	0.5833	0.2213	0.1379
329	0	2	158	0.0063	0.0506	0.5506	0.1899	0.2025	171	0.0175	0.0234	0.4912	0.0819	0.3860
535	1	0	302	0.1887	0.0099	0.5265	0.2583	0.0166	233	0.1116	0.0043	0.5408	0.2704	0.0730
555	1	1	299	0.0836	0.0368	0.4381	0.3980	0.0435	256	0.0625	0.0039	0.5313	0.2188	0.1836
562	1	2	300	0.0233	0.0567	0.5033	0.2233	0.1933	262	0.0344	0.0153	0.4427	0.1298	0.3779
177	2	0	101	0.0693	0.0000	0.7129	0.2079	0.0099	76	0.0526	0.0000	0.6053	0.3026	0.0395
294	2	1	165	0.0909	0.0121	0.5879	0.2909	0.0182	129	0.0465	0.0078	0.6744	0.1705	0.1008
472	2	2	260	0.0231	0.0423	0.4192	0.3692	0.1462	212	0.0802	0.0142	0.4340	0.1792	0.2925
51	3	0	26	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	25	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000
113	3	1	59	0.0339	0.0000	0.7966	0.1695	0.0000	54	0.0741	0.0000	0.7593	0.1296	0.0370
292	3	2	160	0.0063	0.0188	0.5625	0.3063	0.1063	132	0.0379	0.0000	0.6439	0.1667	0.1515

By Start




Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	327	204	123	0.5076	0.2952	4.6	0.3792	0.0765	0.3645	0.2581
CU	107	88	19	0.3271	0.3143	5.5	0.2243	0.0748	0.2169	0.2917
FA	3100	1603	1497	0.4358	0.1621	1.6	0.3881	0.1548	0.2931	0.3392
FC	1233	746	487	0.5012	0.2362	2.0	0.3341	0.1687	0.3873	0.2718
SL	627	189	438	0.5311	0.3874	3.0	0.2919	0.0925	0.4797	0.3443
	5394	2830	2564	0.4640	0.2213	2.0	0.3608	0.1444	0.3419	0.3196

Peavy throws hard, upper 90's at times, has a lot of solid, but not spectacular, pitches. He can throw them all very well, and, as mentioned above, from multiple arm angles.

Folks will point to his stats away from Petco as a red flag, along with the length and value of his contract. But the biggest obstacle to the Cubs will be what they can offer in return.