Heilman or Marquis?

Update Newsday says Heilman called Minaya to plead his case. Didn't work out.

Since Aaron Heilman still wants to start, and the Mets don't, how about swapping could-be #5's with the Cubs? Jason Marquis is a New Yorker, only a year left on his deal. It isn't that the Mets don't need a #5, they actually don't want to "consider" Heilman.

Heilman made 25 starts for the Mets between 2003 and '05. He went 5-13 with a 5.93 ERA. Those statistics include the very beginning of his major-league career, when he struggled before lowering his arm angle. The Mets, fairly or unfairly, have viewed Heilman as primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, which makes him better suited for relief work.

Emphasis is mine. As I've noted before, Heilman is a three-pitch pitcher. His slider has proven to be very effective. The full post is here, but here are a couple relevant points:

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	442	84.3	-10.3	4.1	247.5	1,332.8
FA	1134	94.3	-10.5	4.9	244.4	1,559.8
SL	209	84.8	1.0	0.5	212.2	503.3
	1785	90.7	-9.1	4.2	241.4	1,379.9

If Heilman were to move into the rotation, he wouldn't maintain that 94mph average on the heat. Think 91-92 instead.

There's a reason for the low # of sliders - he changed his pitch mix and used the slider on righties quite a lot as 2008 moved on.

#	year	bats	CH	FA	SL
177	2007	L	0.3503	0.6328	0.0169
595	2008	L	0.3109	0.6487	0.0403
209	2007	R	0.3206	0.6794	0.0000
804	2008	R	0.1592	0.6144	0.2264

How's he a change-up/fastball guy if he threw more sliders to righties in 2008? Was it not an effective pitch? Looking across both 2007 and 2008:

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	442	247	195	0.5407	0.3808	4.8	0.3439	0.0995	0.4138	0.2171
FA	1134	498	636	0.4568	0.1583	2.1	0.4365	0.0996	0.3114	0.3556
SL	209	27	182	0.3876	0.4815	2.1	0.4067	0.1292	0.3065	0.4941
	1785	772	1013	0.4695	0.2530	2.4	0.4101	0.1031	0.3390	0.3429

That's a very effective pitch, at least by these numbers.

Would he be better than Marquis? Or any other candidate, like Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Jeff Samardzija, Rich Hill (just kidding)? Here are some projections to consider:

Pitcher	System	ERA	IP
Heilman	Marcel	4.25	72
Heilman	James	3.82	64
Marshall	Marcel	4.34	85
Marshall	James	4.14	82
Marshall	ZiPS	4.65	89
Marquis	Marcel	4.61	162
Marquis	James	4.60	167
Marquis	ZiPS	4.80	163
Samardzija	Marcel	3.92	39
Samardzija	ZiPS	5.48	133
Guzman	Marcel	4.60	45
Guzman	ZiPS	5.04	50

If you consider the difference between being projected as a starter vs. a reliever (and some of these guys get a bit of each in this mixed bag), you might easily figure Heilman will be no more effective than Marquis or Marshall. And that Samardzjia should stay in the pen (ZiPS projects him, along with Guzman and Marshall, as a starter).