Marquis for Schoeneweis?

The Cubs and Mets were rumored to have discussed Jason Marquis for Aaron Heilman a few weeks ago. With Heilman gone in the 12 player/3 team blockbuster, Jon Heyman is wondering if Scott Schoeneweis would be a fit.

I had actually pulled together Schoeneweis' PITCHf/x data when his name first came up in various Met rumors, but hadn't bothered to look much at it. He's basically a two-pitch guy, although his slider does vary on the slutter/slider/slurve spectrum, and he probably mixes in two- and four-seam fastballs. Drops down low, can throw hard enough, considering the angle. Here's a look at his pitch speed by outing.

The top pane is all games, the middle is just Shea, and the bottom everything but Shea. Shea runs a couple MPH slower for the most part, and I'm not park adjusting the data (my pitch IDs are based on game-by-game, not aggregated across games/parks - sometimes....).

Click to enlarge:



So, he's around 88-90 with the fastball, 80-82 with the slurve. Here are the average flight paths and spin movement. There may be a few "change-ups" in with the slurves - but it isn't as obvious as it may appear in the inset below.





Both pitches are pretty effective. He uses less sliders against lefties, and looks like a nibbler and likes to work inside with the fastball.

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
FA	873	405	468	0.4490	0.1403	2.0446	0.3895	0.1558	0.3171	0.3441
SL	243	94	149	0.5967	0.2690	3.4091	0.3539	0.1358	0.5159	0.2558
	1116	499	617	0.4812	0.1750	2.2123	0.3817	0.1514	0.3623	0.3263

Plate location vs. LHH



Plate location vs. RHH



Couple other notes. First, he's from New Jersey and Jewish so I have an immediate affinity. He's also overcome testicular cancer and Tommy John surgery. So I have immediate respect. He pitched two years with a torn knee tendon (source), so, um, OK, he's tough. He's also smart, a History degree from Duke. He must like to read, a lot.

He'll be 35 in 2009, and has made a lot of appearances lately

2005  80
2006  71
2007  70
2008  73

He only threw 51-59 innings each year, so he hasn't be over-worked, rather often-worked.

He did look pretty lucky last year, with some expected regression in strand rates and BABIP. He projects with an ERA in the 4.7 range. He has a pretty strong platoon split, tougher on lefties than righties, so he could very well be a good LOOGY candidate.