A few weeks ago I took a SWAG at the opening day roster. Well, things have changed (and some haven't). Time for an update. And Projections and WAR.
There are some gaps, and I think Jake Peavy could be en route .... we'll see.
But, for now, let's throw in Milton Bradley, a generic back-up catcher Paul Bako and roll. 14 batters, 12 pitchers. Aaron Miles is pitcher #13. Yes, that's 26 men, but I'm balancing the playing time in the projections.
C Geovany Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mike Fontenot
SS Ryan Theriot
3B Aramis Ramirez
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson
CF Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley
OF Joey Gathright
C Paul Bako
IF Ronny Cedeno
UT Aaron Miles
PH Micah Hoffpauir
SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Rich Harden
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Sean Marshall
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Neal Cotts
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Luis Vizcaino
RP Michael Wuertz
RP Angel Guzman
These WAR #'s are from a first pass looking at Marcels, UZR and WAG (wild ass guess) on running.
Updated The fielding and running have been removed, and an error in the spreadsheet was corrected in the pitching calculations.
| Group | WAA | WAR |
| Hit | 3.5 | |
| BR | 0 | |
| Field | 0 | |
| Hitters | 20.9 | |
| Pitchers | 18.1 | |
| TOTAL | 39.0 | |
| Predicted Wins: | 89.0 |
2 comments:
HP, I think the pitchers are going to be worth more than 13.2 wins. I'm not sure what your playing time estimates are, but I'm sure you've seen the ones I've done and the 3 starters I have done (I haven't yet posted Dempster's) it's up near 12 WAR. Kevin Gregg is at 0.9 if I recall, Marmol probably 2 or better, Lilly at about 3 and Marshall around 2. Then your basic reliever. I'm guessing right now it's more like 20 WAR for the pitching staff using reasonable playing time estimates. The biggest issue is Rich Harden of course.
I haven't looked too much into the hitters, but a WAG for me would be about 25 like you have. Using a .350 winning percentage (56.7 wins), that brings my WAG up to about 92 wins.
Very pessimimistic with the playing time. If I get optimistic, reduce the bottom of the barrel, I get about +15 for the pitching. My latest swag is 93.6 wins total. I'll publish more tomorrow.
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