ROY Candidate Fukudome

MLB.com is doing the typical run-up to the season stuff. Yesterday they ran a piece on break-thru players from Japan. Mentions none other than Kosuke as the best of the bunch.

He will wear No. 1, and he is No. 1

In today's article, they declare he's also a decent bet for Rookie of the Year.

Fukudome has as much of a chance as anyone to take home some hardware.

There's a lot of young talent to compete against. MLB.com lists the following:
Clay Buchholz (BOS) - guy's got a no-hitter already and is still a rook.
Joba Chamberlain (NYY) - of course. the human hype machine.
Evan Longoria (TB) - name recognition helps, and confuses.
Jay Bruce (CIN) - this guy may drive us nuts for several years.
Kosuke Fukudome
Colby Rasmus (STL) - considering the lack of talent in St. Louis, he could start this year. Another hi-upside prospect right in our division.
Brandon Wood (LAA) - power hitting short-stop.
Luke Hochevar (KC) - Had a cup of coffee, now projects in to the rotation.
Cameron Maybin (FLA) - The center-piece of the Cabrera/Willis trade.
Andy LaRoche (LA) - Has to beat out Nomar. In other words, remain standing all Spring.

We'll get to see the top 3 NL candidates quite a bit this year, or so it appears.

Waaahngelos

OK, Peter, you've had your hissy fit. Can I have my dang second baseman already? Seattle Times says not so fast.

What held this deal up? I heard on Sunday night, within moments of his being told, that Orioles owner Peter Angelos was furious to learn that news of the impending deal had broken. He was about to head into the hospital for a minor procedure the next day and could not believe Adam Jones had spilled the beans. Would it be beyond Angelos to hold things up another 48, or 72 hours before giving his go-ahead and making everyone sweat a little? Nope.

MLB.com has a more reasonable explanation - although I wouldn't be surprised if both stories are accurate

A last-minute attempt by the Baltimore Orioles to sign Erik Bedard to a multi-year contract appears to be the only thing standing in the way of a proposed trade

Oriole Central reports MacPhail is advising against the extension.

Once this happens and we hear about Roberts to Chicago, keep it quiet, so Angelos can have his lollipop before the news breaks.

Fuku doh! me

The Daily Yomiuri has some interesting remarks on Fukudome, starting with the flag ad, and then ripping on his skills as an erstwhile shortshop

Fukudome came up as a clumsy--fitting right in with Chicago's marketing campaign--shortstop and struggled to get a handle on the glove side of the game.

Hah, cute.

Fukudome botched plays no matter where the Dragons tried to hide him...his most memorable was a dropped ball on a routine grounder hit right at him during the 1999 Japan Series that allowed the tying run to score in the Game 5 clincher

OK, not funny anymore (or before, really).

Fukudome discovered a place where he could develop. His conversion to the outfield helped make use of his speed and arm strength.

That's better.

even now he looks clueless at times against offspeed pitching....In fact, Tokyo-based scout Dave DeFreitas of the Cleveland Indians went as far as to say, "Fukudome didn't just struggle with the change, he looked bad--like he'd never seen one before."

Doh!

Bedard hung up

Man, this thing is getting annoying. Looks like Angelos won't budge

A source familiar with the talks said a potential deal is being held up on the Orioles' end and unspecified complex issues still need to be resolved for the trade to go through. One of those might be Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail getting the approval of club owner Peter Angelos.

First shoe drops

Update 4: ViaMLB Trade Rumors, there is more indication that the news was a little early, but the deal is close to completion, "99%", apparently.

Update 3: Jon Heyman at SI has the lastest round-up - this trade isn't done, but just about. Sounds like they're waiting on Angelos.

Update 2: Or not. MacPhail is denying it, says not to expect Jones in Baltimore tomorrow. The beat goes on .... I think the Seattle reports are accurate. Maybe the Dr. is in DC

Update: Hot Stove Cubbies is hearing the laces untie on the other foot.

Bedard for Jones, pending physicals. Geoff Baker reports

Adam Jones has left his Venezuelan Winter League team and flies to Baltimore tomorrow morning to take a physical so he can be dealt to the Orioles in exchange for pitcher Erik Berdard.

Bedard vs. Hill - Curveballs

Update 2: Check out part one of the Bedard/Hill fastball comparison.

UPDATED Release Points:

Noisy, eh? One random one in there for Rich, should be purged. Other within pitcher differences are probably park-to-park.

Hill comes at it from a different angle. I'll discuss this more, and some other pitches, in another post.

Erik Bedard and Rich Hill. Two lefties, two curveballs. From a partial sample of PITCHf/x data (y0=50, no data corrections applied - just rejections), you can see some interesting differences.

In this graph, the size is the Spin Rate (RPM) against pfx_x and pfx_z. You can see the curveballs in the lower left corner.



Here are the curveballs I selected (bubbles re-scaled a little)



So, who has the better curve - Hill's moves more, but is it more effective?

Raw numbers first

	Erik	Rich
Ball	35	83
Swinging Strike	28	22
Called Strike	20	66
Foul	21	47
In Play	12	27
Home Run	0	0
	116	245

Rates clearly show the big difference in swinging strikes, and a similar difference in called strikes.

	Erik	Rich
Ball	30.2%	33.9%
Swinging Strike	24.1%	9.0%
Called Strike	17.2%	26.9%
Foul	18.1%	19.2%
In Play	10.3%	11.0%
Home Run	0.0%	0.0%
	100.0%	100.0%

Bedard not only is getting more swings, but more whiffs.

	Erik	Rich
Swing Rate	52.6%	39.2%
Whiff Rate	45.9%	22.9%

Adding it up, in terms of Balls and Strikes

	Erik	Rich
Ball	30.2%	33.9%
Strike	59.5%	55.1%

Bedard's got the slight edge, despite getting less movement. A key difference could be approach, and what I'm not measuring is how one pitch sets-up another.

I'll take a look at their fastballs next. [here you go - fastballs, part 1]

From the Mouth of Bedard

Erik Bedard isn't exactly helping Andy MacPhail get best value, but he may be helping himself get out of Baltimore faster.

Ace pitcher Erik Bedard said today that he is resigned to being traded this season and is disappointed that the Orioles haven't made a greater effort to sign him to a contract extension...Bedard's comments surprised Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail ... Bedard made it clear today that he has no interest in pitching for a rebuilding team.

Bedard going to Seattle sends Roberts to Chicago <<clicks heels together 3 times>> The Padres are talking to the Cubs about Murton and the Pirates about Xavier Nady. Everyone is speculating Khalil Greene is a target for the Cubs. Or Marlon Byrd. I don't buy Lofton, Stewart or any other "big name" free agent.

Nothing happens until Bedard moves, and then it all falls into place before pitchers and catchers reports. And if Bedard keeps yapping, it will be that much sooner.

Alan Nathan's latest

Head over to The Physics of Baseball, where Dr. Nathan has posted some recent published and un-published work. I'll try and digest it, but, that will be over fast.

The Effect of Spin on the Flight of a Baseball...This topic has relevance for the break of a curveball, the hop of a fastball, and the flight of a long fly ball.
The effect of spin-down on the flight of a baseball. (new January 22, 2008): A brief unpublished essay in which an estimate is made of the rate of spin decay of a baseball in flight and the effect of the spin decay on the flight of a baseball.

This work is important to improving and making sense of the data from PITCHf/x. It's not just Alan's efforts, but Josh Kalk and Mike Fast and many others make contributions to the understanding of PITCHf/x. Me, I just blog a little about Brian Roberts.

It could happen

Yes, this is another Brian Roberts post. I'll re-name the blog Cubs b/r tomorrow.

The pieces may fall into place. Bill Bavasi seems optimistic about landing Bedard, according to the thenewstribune.com

He said he wants "a premier starting pitcher," "a top-of-the-rotation guy," a "rare animal." And he believes the Mariners will get one soon.

"As I'm sitting here today, I think we will (get a deal done)," Bavasi said. "I think there's a good chance of that. But I should qualify that by saying I've thought that four or five times in the last month and it's been shot down."

The Associated Press got the same feeling at the luncheon (it wasn't just the potato salad)

Seattle Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi says he expects to have a newly acquired opening day starter on March 31 at Safeco Field to pitch against the Texas Rangers.

Bavasi won't name the target of his trade talks because of baseball's tampering rules against openly courting players on other teams, but it's 28-year-old Baltimore Orioles left-hander Eric Bedard.

Nice moves

Here's a good idea that I like, from Hire Jim Essian!

S Brian Roberts 2B
L Kosuke Fukudome RF
R Derrek Lee 1B
R Aramis Ramirez 3B
R Alfonso Soriano LF
R Khalil Greene SS
R Geovany Soto C
L Sam Fuld CF

Sure, they'd jack-up my ticket prices in the off-season - again - but it would be interesting. We'd have to shut-down a couple minor league affiliates, but we can give some type of cash gift to Peoria (right, Mr. Zell?)

Zito f/x

Bay City Ball has a PITCHf/x analysis of Barry Zito. There are more posts coming on the Giants' staff over there.

And....more Roberts talk. What else?

From The Baltimore Sun, Jeff Zrebiec reports on the status of the Roberts trade. MacPhail is still working on a deal.

"I've been telling everybody by the end of the month,"..."But it's not necessarily a calendar issue. There is no magic date between January 22 and February 2. The date that probably matters more is Feb. 13."....The Chicago Cubs remain the likely landing spot for Roberts for a package that is expected to include pitcher Sean Gallagher and one of the Cubs' young outfielders. The two teams have discussed several scenarios, but have yet to agree on a package.

Cubs' young outfielders.
Hmmmmm.....
Matt Murton
Felix Pie
Sam Fuld
Tyler Colvin
Josh Kroeger
Eric Patterson (but MacPhail is willing to settle for Corey - see the article)
Jake Fox

Scratch Colvin and Kroeger, they're not ML ready, which is want Andy wants. Fox isn't a proven outfielder - which also means we can scratch EP, unless Andy wants to go Patterson-Cheap, just to avert going Patterson-Free-Agent-Boras-Rip-Off.

That leaves Felix, Matt and Sam. Could the Cubs be dangling Mr. Tools and Defense knowing that have Sam Fuld in the wings? Most likely, they're offering Murton, who doesn't have a place to play in Chicago.

Of course, if MacPhail moves Bedard for Adam Jones, the calculus changes. Cubs should try and get first trade advantage - close the deal before the Mariners do.

Will the Cubs go Greene?

In 2001, the Cubs drafted Khalil Greene in the 14th round of the June amateur draft. He wisely didn't sign, as the Padres took him in the first round the following year.

He's not likely to stay in San Diego, according to Corey Brock of mlblogs.

Greene's camp has balked at a long-term deal and were willing to head to arbitration this year

Brock also points out an interesting home/road split

Maybe the hitter-friendly American League or just maybe somewhere other than PETCO Park, where Greene, for his career, is hitting 52 points lower (.228) than on the road (.280)

A couple of people are saying the Cubs are interested. But I haven't found a thing beyond speculation. I can add a bunch more links to "it has been reported" ad naseum, but I won't bother.

I'll see if I find or hear from a reader on a source or starting point for the rumor. I'll check-out his stats, projections, and f/x for a later post.

Meanwhile, I'll quietly hope Theriot-hype has passed its time and the Cubs return him to a utility role. Or at least the bottom of the order.

Wuertz inked. Plus: Murton and Marquis rumors

As mentioned in an earlier post, the Cubs only exchanged arbitration numbers with one player, and he signed today. Michael Wuertz will get $860,000 - a bargain. He should, once again, be a key member of the bullpen.

Meanwhile, in our outfield and rotation, Ken Rosenthal, has a juicy report today

The Padres ... are targeting Cubs outfielder Matt Murton, a player in whom they have had longstanding interest. However, the Cubs might be reluctant to move Murton if they include an outfielder in a deal for Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts. It's even possible that Murton could be in a Roberts deal...Don't be surprised if Cubs right-hander Jason Marquis is part of a package for Roberts — the Orioles value his innings, and other clubs also have expressed interest in Marquis since the Cubs' signing of Jon Lieber.

Who are these other clubs?

Meanwhile, the Trib says Texas is asking for Murton and Sean Gallagher for Marlon Byrd. Umm, no. That's waaay to much for a mediocre player like Byrd.




ht RotoWorld

Pitch Preferences - Corrections

I found that the odd looking numbers I found for Murton et al. in some pitch preference posts were not only odd, but wrong.

I was using an older query and spreadsheet combo to look at, ahem, Sammy Sosa, and decided to look at Murton again. Numbers didn't match-up, validated the "old" query, and I now have better data. Or correct data. Useful data. So, I re-opened Marlon Byrd and Felix Pie, too.

One of the things I wanted to look at with Sammy was "Fools" - something I worked on a few months back when I started the blog. Fools are pitches the batter takes for strikes in the zone, or whiffs on out of the zone. It is crude, full of holes, but fun to look at. Heck, if crude stats are good enough for Joe Posnanski, they're good enough for me.

A few things first - these data sets are just what we have in the PITCHf/x database. I discard pitches on some criteria (intentional walks, below certain MPH cut-offs, other obvious data anomalies). I set the strike zone from two sources. First, it is 2 ft. wide, based on a Harball Times study. Second, it is as high and low as the average setting by the PITCHf/x operators.

On pitches OOZ, here's the 3 best places to fool each of these guys (there are 8 segments of OOZ), plus their ISZ Fool rate, plus the number of OOZ segments they are >=15% fooled. "Within" means not high or low, but off the plate. "Over" means high or low, but within the 2 ft. "plate".

Murton
Down and Over (18.8%)
Up and In (10.0%)
Up and Away (6.7%)
In Zone (25.6%)
Fool Zones (1)

Pie
Up and Over (22.2%)
Down and Over (19.6%)
Down and Away (16.7%)
In Zone (29.5%)
Fool Zones (4)

Byrd
Down and In (33.3%)
Down and Over (26.6%)
Up and Over (19.7%)
In Zone (25.9%)
Fool Zones (4)

Sosa
Down and Over (28.7%)
Down and Away (18.8%)
Up and Over (14.8%)
In Zone (24.1%)
Fool Zones (3)

Sammy just misses a fourth Fool Zone. It's pretty obvious Murton is a patient hitter.

How about Power Zones? Any segment where they've homered. Percentage shown is HR/Contact (Contact = HR + FB + In Play)

Murton
Up and Over (8.7%)
In Zone (3.1%)

Pie
no homers in PITCHf/x data

Byrd
Within and In (3.0%)
In Zone (1.4%)

Sosa
In Zone (4.7%)

As you look at the numbers (data below), keep in mind the sample sizes are small and they vary (Felix 324, Murton 500, Sosa 1110, Byrd 1257). I'm working on another topic with Fools, which I'll get back to, now that I've cleaned up my mess.

FELIX	Seen	Fooled	Swing	Contact	Foul	Homer	In Play
Up and Inside	0.0%	--	--	--	--	--	--
Up and Over	5.6%	22.2%	33.3%	14.3%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Up and Away	3.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	--	--	--
Within and Inside	4.0%	0.0%	7.7%	7.7%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
In Zone	48.1%	29.5%	60.3%	58.1%	55.8%	0.0%	44.2%
Within and Away	19.8%	6.3%	34.4%	30.0%	38.9%	0.0%	61.1%
Down and Inside	2.8%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	--	--	--
Down and Over	14.2%	19.6%	43.5%	29.7%	63.6%	0.0%	36.4%
Down and Away	1.9%	16.7%	33.3%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
MARLON	Seen	Fooled	Swing	Contact	Foul	Homer	In Play
Up and Inside	1.3%	12.5%	18.8%	7.1%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Up and Over	5.6%	19.7%	36.6%	21.1%	58.3%	0.0%	41.7%
Up and Away	0.7%	11.1%	22.2%	12.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Within and Inside	7.6%	4.2%	38.5%	35.9%	60.6%	3.0%	36.4%
In Zone	57.1%	25.9%	65.7%	62.9%	51.8%	1.4%	46.8%
Within and Outside	11.8%	6.8%	29.7%	24.6%	61.8%	0.0%	38.2%
Down and Inside	1.2%	33.3%	40.0%	10.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Down and Over	9.9%	26.6%	41.9%	20.9%	52.6%	0.0%	47.4%
Down and Away	4.8%	15.0%	18.3%	3.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SAMMY	Seen	Fooled	Swing	Contact	Foul	Homer	In Play
Up and Inside	2.2%	4.2%	16.7%	13.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Up and Over	9.7%	14.8%	26.9%	14.1%	76.9%	0.0%	23.1%
Up and Away	1.0%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	--	--	--
Within and Inside	8.9%	7.1%	39.4%	34.8%	65.6%	0.0%	34.4%
In Zone	48.9%	24.1%	66.9%	60.7%	45.3%	4.7%	50.0%
Within and Outside	11.9%	9.1%	21.2%	13.3%	56.3%	0.0%	43.8%
Down and Inside	1.4%	12.5%	31.3%	21.4%	33.3%	0.0%	66.7%
Down and Over	11.6%	28.7%	48.1%	27.2%	36.0%	0.0%	64.0%
Down and Away	4.3%	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	--	--	--
MATT	Seen	Fooled	Swing	Contact	Foul	Homer	In Play
Up and Inside	1.8%	10.0%	50.0%	44.4%	75.0%	0.0%	25.0%
Up and Over	11.6%	4.7%	40.6%	37.7%	47.8%	8.7%	43.5%
Up and Away	2.7%	6.7%	13.3%	7.1%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Within and Inside	7.3%	0.0%	22.5%	22.5%	77.8%	0.0%	22.2%
In Zone	51.8%	25.6%	64.2%	60.9%	50.3%	3.1%	46.5%
Within and Outside	7.3%	5.0%	20.0%	15.8%	66.7%	0.0%	33.3%
Down and Inside	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	--
Down and Over	11.6%	18.8%	23.4%	5.8%	66.7%	0.0%	33.3%
Down and Away	4.2%	0.0%	4.3%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Convention Notes - Day 2

Update: Bleed Cubbie Blue has a great post about Day 2. Sadly, it confirms my line-up suspicions fears. Clearly, Roberts is still on the table, otherwise no one would be freakin' out about tampering. They could just come out and say it is a dead deal. Just hold your horses until Erik Bedard get shipped to Seattle for Adam Jones, IMO.

Bruce Miles comes in with a fresh column. The "Angelos killed the 9 player trade" rumor was the first topic - of course. Hendry said the report "was not accurate". Meanwhile, Lou reminds us he's fine with Mark DeRosa playing second base every day.

Lou is still considering hitting Theriot 2nd, with Fukudome 5th. Center field is open for Sam Fuld and Felix Pie - and I think that is still in play, even if they get Marlon Byrd, or facsimile thereof. In any case, I can't imagine batting Geovany Soto 7th and Theriot 2nd. I'm hoping for, realistically, this line-up

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
DeRosa
Pie
Theriot

but I think we'll get

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Fukudome
DeRosa
Soto
Pie

Which isn't horrible. But, Pie won't get many good pitches battng 8th, and Soto will lack protection, too. And all those PA's for Theriot will hurt the team.

The Never Ending Story

Roch Kubatko has a different source and story than the Chicago media.

It now appears that the Cubs would be willing to part with Rich Hill if they could get Roberts and Bedard in return, but the Orioles haven’t shown a willingness to package their two bargaining chips in the same trade.

New PITCHf/x blog

Rob over at CHT has just started a series of posts called Jay-f/x 2007. Check it out, and find out the full name of the blog, named in honor of a Moneyball player.

Byrd still an option

MLB.com is reporting about the Byrd deal with this update from the Ranger's site:

The Chicago Cubs, according to Major League officials, have called and asked about center fielder Marlon Byrd. The Cubs are looking for a right-handed-hitting center fielder.....The Cubs would likely be willing to give up left fielder Matt Murton

Jeez, we must be desperate for a center fielder.

Plus this from Lou:

"I don't think we'll do anything, honestly, but if we do, it will be in the outfield."

Jeez, we really must be desperate for a center fielder.

RotoWorld sees a different possibility - pitching, instead of Murton

If Texas could pick up Sean Marshall or Sean Gallagher for Byrd, we imagine GM Jon Daniels would make the move in a heartbeat. The Cubs, though, may be offering someone like Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster.

ht MLBTR

Convention Notes - Day 1

Stop here if you're looking for commentary from someone who actually attended. I just watched some clips and read some stuff. You can, too.

Update 2: Paul Sullivan reports

[Lou Pinella] expects Marquis to rebound from his poor second half.
"The disturbing thing is it happened the year before in St. Louis,"

Yes, disturbing indeed. I couldn't agree more.
Marmol isn't going to Arizona with a shot at closer, Howry thinks he's the man.

Howry will be battling with Kerry Wood to replace Dempster as closer, with Carlos Marmol remaining a set-up man.

And Dempster expects to start. No mention of Wuertz and where he fits.

Update: Carrie Muskat is also reporting (more here) on the Byrd deal as the big news out of the convention, so far. She also drops Hart from the contenders for a rotation spot.

In her notes column (be sure to click thru and read the "Extra bases", at least), she reports Ted Lilly will be the opening day starter, according to new Cubs manager, Carlos Zambrano.

"I will talk to Lilly, and I will give him the day to pitch Opening Day," Zambrano said on Friday.

In other news, Joakim Noah will pitch middle relief.

Gerald Perry is still trying to sell us Felix Pie

"We want to get him to stay inside on the ball and use more of the middle of the field and the opposite side of the field and use his legs and try to shorten his stroke some," Perry said. "The time I was down there, he did extremely well. He got off to a terrible start, so his overall average wasn't that great."

"He was very receptive," Perry said. "I'm really looking forward to Spring Training to do some stuff with him and work with him and for him to take off. I think he's going to be fine."

Also, Pie has left Licey and is partaking of the convention experience.

Lots of stuff from Lou and Hendry on the load-up of pitching. Clearly the main topic at hand. Lou said Hart is likely to end up in middle or long relief. He rattled off Lieber, Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Dempster, Marquis and Marshall as rotation candidates. I didn't see/hear/read anything about Gallagher. He asked someone off camera if he forgot anyone, and the response was "Hart". He said, umm, maybe, and continued to explain what's probably best for a younger pitcher. He said they'd give Dempster a chance, but there wasn't any air of certainty. Lou also mentioned "letting the veterans compete".

When Hendry talked about the load-up of pitching, he mostly stuck to having lots of ready-to-go guys. As opposed to '07, where he said they went to Arizona thinking they'd have to rush Miller or go with Marshall who wasn't ready yet. When a follow-up question came about adding Lieber to facilitate a trade, Hendry agreed that is "part of the thinking".

Add it all up, and I think I was:
- right about Hart <<pats self on back>>
- might be right about Dempster going back to the pen (no hints on what role)
- wrong on Marquis
- might be right on the Seans and Baltimore

I make this last point because Hendry and Lou both talked a lot about not being done yet. Without setting a make-or-break expectation, they both talked about wanting to add another player. I just gotta believe the Roberts deal is going to happen.

As I find more news I will update this post.

What's he worth?

Three pitchers. Three 2008 salaries

A $4,200,000
B $4,000,000
C ??????

How'd they do last year, basic stats?

A 24.3 IP 3.33 ERA 1.27 WHIP
B 81.3 IP 3.32 ERA 1.16 WHIP
C 72.3 IP 3.48 ERA 1.36 WHIP

Pitcher C is Michael Wuertz, who is asking for $975,000. A is Woody and B Howry. Clearly, Wuertz is not a free agent, but the Cubs are going to arbitration with an offer of $750,000.

Most likely, they'll settle before it gets to a hearing. But, still, I think they can kick-down a quarter mil for a guy who is likely to provide nearly the same value as the other two.

According to BP, the three were very close in Value over Replacement Player (VORP) last year.

Wood 7.1
Howry 22.7
Wuertz 17.8

Remember, Wood only threw about 1/3 of the innings as the other two, so the numbers are really close rate-wise. If these guys all manage to get the same amount of work in '08, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Wuertz bested one, or both, of them.

Bullet dodged; Mr. Zero signed

The Cubs signed former White Sox reliever Shingo Takatsu. He's 39, and had a 6.17 ERA last year - in Japan. Not sure I get this one.

Also, Omar Infante broke his hand, so that trade is working out well for us already.

Pie returns, Marmol rolls

Licey no-hit Estrellas on Monday. Marmol got the last four outs for the save, striking out 3. Damaso Marte is now setting-up for Carlos.

Felix was back on the field, went 0-3 in the 8th spot in the lineup, with a stolen base and an RBI. He reached, and drove in a run, on a grounder to first with runners at the corners. His first two at bats both resulted in 4-3 grounders.

Last night, Los Tigres did it again, this time 7-0 and three hits allowed. Marmol had the night off. MLB.com has the box score. Felix was 0-4 with a SO and an RBI ground-out. He flew out twice.

Lieber Projections and In-Play Data

As I mentioned earlier, I recall Lieber throwing a lot of ground balls.

The great site Fan Graphs provides what we're looking for. Here's his numbers from 2002/2007/total - 2002 being his last with the Cubbies, total being 2002-2007 (remember, Jon didn't pitch in 2003, the first year of his contract with the Yankees). He still is a ground ball pitcher, even more now than in 2002. He is giving up more line drives.

	2002	2007	'02-'07
GB%	.427	.438	.450
FB%	.345	.287	.335
LD%	.228	.275	.215
HR/FB	.094	.095	.117

Lieber appears to have adapted well to Philly's band-box, as he managed to lower his fly ball rate, and his homer per fly ball rate, during his stay. His FIP dropped half a run last year as a result. All told, Jon has given up a little since his best days in Chicago, but much less than I expected. His even improved ability to keep the ball down should serve him very well.

His projections:

source	IP	ERA	WHIP	K9
CHONE	134	4.63	1.39	5.44
Marchel	114	4.74	1.39	5.92
Bill James	167	4.04	1.28	5.77
CBS	125	4.82	1.31	5.40
ZiPS	166	4.75	1.30	5.75

I'll take it. Beats Marquis, I bet. I will dig into him next.

Old Friend

Welcome back, Jon Lieber. I remember you well. A lot of innings, and even a couple Cy Young votes. Getting you for Brant Brown - that was awesome.

Now he's back, one year, $3.5 million plus $4 million in incentives. This says a few things, some or all of which may be true. Or none.

1. Marquis is on his way out - with the Cubs picking up most of his contract


2. Dempster is back to the bullpen, but not as closer


3. Marshall to Baltimore


4. Gallagher to Baltimore


5. No one seriously considered Kevin Hart for a spot

Who knows, the next move will be the most telling.

For now, I'm left wondering what the guy throws. A lot of ground ball outs, if I remember correctly....

I ran a couple passes thru the one and only one game of PITCHf/x data we have for Lieber. y=55, n=104

First, eyeballing it....




Ummm, OK. Not sure what I see here - perhaps 3 pitches. Perhaps 10.

Tried another old friend, k-means cluster analysis, nothing satisfying there.

Using an even older friend, I went to my book shelf and pulled out The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers and found this, on page 280, right between Ted Lewis and Kerry Ligtenberg.

1. Sinking Fastball 2. Slider 3. Change

They cite The Scouting Notebook 2000.

Checked one new friend, the PITCHf/x tool by Josh Kalk - his technique finds two pitches. Scroll down at the link to see the table with the pitches. For your immediate viewing pleasure, here's the pitch location chart, also available at the link.



Once the season gets going, we'll revisit Lieber and see what his 2008 stuff looks like to a computer and a bunch of cameras.

Roberts deal still simmering

I may have to realize this trade, whatever it is, won't go away. Roch Kubatko of the Baltimore Sun asked Andy...

I asked MacPhail about reports that talks between the Orioles and Cubs are dead, and he replied: "We haven't closed any doors."

However, don't look for any deals to go down tomorrow. It doesn't appear that the Orioles are that close to finalizing anything.

BTB took a look at Roberts and Eric Patterson - but they only look at PECOTA, which was crazy optimistic on Patterson.

Here are some other projections. ZIPS isn't out for the Orioles yet, and Bill James didn't project Patterson.

Patterson:
CHONE 264/326/402
CBS 276/311/437
MARCEL 278/343/433
PECOTA'07 289/354/472
ZIPS 264/318/406

Roberts:
CHONE 282/366/416
MARCEL 289/362/436
CBS 285/374/427
PECOTA'07 269/343/402
BILLJAMES 285/364/471

EP gives up a lot of OBP, but has good power projections. Well, ZiPS doesn't like hm. Bill James loves Roberts.

Fan Graphs has CHONE, MARCEL and Bill James on every player's stat page. Check it out.

RIP Don Cardwell

Don Cardwell threw a no-hitter in his first start for the Cubs on May 15, 1960. He won a total of 30 games for the Cubs, departing after the 1962 season. He was part of the 1969 Mets, throwing one inning in the World Series.

Don passed away at the age of 72, after a long illness.

Analyzing the Mailbag

Carrie Muskat's latest is up at Cubs.com.

Sounds, to me, like the Roberts deal is dead

reports out of Baltimore are that Orioles general manager Andy MacPhail has very specific requests ... The Cubs don't need a second baseman because they have Mark DeRosa

Translation: He's demanding players we won't part with.

Center field is wide open

As for center field, the Cubs head into Spring Training with Felix Pie and Sam Fuld contending for the starting spot. There is another candidate ... Oneri Fleita, the Cubs player development director, said the reports he received were that Cedeno looked like a natural in center

Cedeno has no more options, and is making a case to back-up at short and platoon (gasp) in center. Not that I'm a fan of that, but it kinda sounds that way.

Marmol rocks

in the Dominican playoffs currently under way, Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol has 11 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in six games for Licey, while Pie is batting .296 (8-for-27) in seven games for the same team.

What she doesn't mention is that Pie hasn't played lately.

Byrd Pitch Preferences

My third post on Marlon Byrd, finally some PITCHf/x data.

Oops, bad numbers - new post coming

Observations:

1. Much bigger sample size


2. Byrd sees more pitches down-and-away, but likes down-and-in a little more


3. His contact rate in the zone and outside pitches that are zone high are comprable to Murton's


4. He shouldn't swing at the down-and-in stuff as much - looks like a good place for a pitcher to get a whiff

Check out Josh Kalks' site for a visual representation.

Byrd Deux

Here's a run-down of projections for Marlon Byrd. ZIPS is park-specific, so that would be changed if he moved to Wrigley. I decided not to include PECOTA '07 since the projections are very pessimistic - and he out-performed them last year.

ZIPS 288/344/443
CHONE 275/337/428
MARCEL 275/336/414
JAMES 279/339/420
CBS 273/334/396
average 278/338/420

Again with the 760 OPS.

He's a below average hitter - only breaking 100 in OPS+ twice - last year, and 2003. Heck, those were the only years he broke 87.

To look at fielding, I chose David Pinto's PMR. I threw in a few other CF's for reference.

Felix Pie 106.43 (3rd of 42)
Melky Cabrera 98.71 (27)
Nick Swisher 95.90 (36)
Marlon Byrd 95.25 (37)

Not good. Hopefully this is all just a bogus rumor. I'd rather they put Fukudome in center against lefties, with Murton getting the start in right.

Will Texas flip us the Byrd?

Several blogs are reporting the end of the Roberts deal - this is from Tim Dierkes.

The Orioles were apparently asking for Tyler Colvin or Felix Pie plus multiple pitchers, and the Cubs wouldn't do it. [ESPN Radio's Bruce] Levine says the Cubs may turn their attention to the Rangers' Marlon Byrd or free agent Jon Lieber.

Marlon Byrd as a platoon partner is interesting. I'll deal with our old friend Jon later.

First, the splits on Byrd.

Oddly, his home/away splits from 2007 scared me away at first, but combining them with the lefty/righty splits muddied the waters.

Lefty/Righty
	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
RHP	1392	270	331	386	717
LHP	516	282	342	414	756
RHP '07	339	300	348	461	809
LHP '07	115	327	374	452	826
Home/Road
	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
HOME	928	285	356	407	763
AWAY	980	263	313	382	695
HOME'07	224	356	406	510	916
AWAY'07	230	259	304	410	715
Home/Road/Lefty/Righty
	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
H-LHP	265	279	348	408	756
A-LHP	251	285	336	421	757
H-RHP	585	287	359	407	766
A-RHP	729	255	305	369	674
H-LHP07	57	302	333	434	767
A-LHP07	58	353	414	471	884
H-RHP07	167	376	431	537	968
A-RHP07	172	230	267	391	659

As you can see, he had a strong platoon benefit on the road last year, but a reverse effect at home. Career-wise, there's no difference, home or away, against lefties (in OPS).
Looks a 760 OPS against lefties is a reasonable expectation next year. Not very impressive, not horrifying. As a center fielder, there is another thing - how's his defense?

I'll be back with more numbers - PITCHf/x and fielding - on Mr. Byrd.

Roberts for Pie?

OK, just when I thought I was going to move Roberts v Patterson, I stumble upon this

Names that the Orioles are reportedly asking for include Rich Hill and several much more highly regarded players that could include Felix Pie, minor league standout outfielder Tyler Colvin, and others. Sources also tell me that GM Jim Hendry will not part with Hill in any deal

and this

Baltimore executive Andy MacPhail still needs a shortstop, a center fielder, a closer and a durable starter. MacPhail said he will wait until the end of January to fill those roles from what remains of the free-agent class. Until then, he will consider trades, with second baseman Brian Roberts to the Chicago Cubs still a distinct possibility. MacPhail likely would want center fielder Felix Pie as part of the return.

which just makes this even scarier

The Cubs may have a surprise outfield candidate in Ronny Cedeno.

Oy.

They also have doubts?

Ken Rosenthal notes

The Cubs are on the fringe of the [Mike] Cameron pursuit

and

[Melky] Cabrera ... could fit for several teams that are in the market for a young, affordable, switch-hitting center fielder. Those teams include the Cubs, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

(ht RotoWorld)

ZIPS and In-Play data for Murton and Pie

OK, I can't get enough of Pie v Murton, so be it.

Dan Szymborski has posted his ZIPS projections for the Cubs (read the comments for Dempster as a starter projection and a correction on Fukudome's SB/CS). Let's take a look.

Name	P	Age	AVG	OBP	SLG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS
Felix Pie*	cf	23	.269	.321	.429	148	539	71	145	27	7	15	61	40	122	20	9
Matt Murton	lf	26	.289	.360	.465	156	471	71	136	27	1	18	63	51	67	3	0

This all matches up well with the other projections. A closer look shows that ZIPS likes Murton more (walks and power are up compared to the others). It gives him a BB:K ratio of .93 and boosts his SLG/AVG to about 1.6, about the same as Pie's.

When you check out Dan's full post, see the "optimistic" on Pie in the "spotlight" section - wow.

Projections are great, but so is real data. Check out the batted ball data over the past few years for Matt and Felix.

Matt	BABIP	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	LD%	POP%
2005 AA	.376	60.3%	25.2%	12.1%	11.8%	2.7%
2005 AAA	.440	53.8%	23.1%	16.7%	23.1%	0.0%
2005 MLB	.342	61.7%	21.7%	25.9%	11.7%	5.0%
2006 MLB	.321	58.4%	20.1%	15.7%	17.0%	4.5%
2007 AAA	.331	53.7%	26.9%	16.7%	16.4%	3.0%
2007 MLB	.309	48.5%	26.5%	15.7%	18.9%	6.1%
Felix	BABIP	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	LD%	POP%
2005 AA	.352	43.9%	34.5%	16.9%	17.5%	4.1%
2006 AAA	.342	47.7%	30.2%	11.8%	15.4%	6.7%
2007 AAA	.416	48.0%	26.8%	18.8%	18.5%	6.7%
2007 MLB	.273	48.9%	24.4%	5.9%	18.3%	8.4%

Observations

1. Pie got lucky in 2007 at Iowa - that BABIP is absurd.


2. Pie's HR/FB rate dropped off 3-fold. That's got to improve. Right? Please?


3. As noted in a previous post, Murton likes the ball up-and-in. It shows, as a trend.


4. Meanwhile, Pie has been hitting more grounders and line drives. But he doesn't appear to be hitting the ball with much authority, based on the ugly 5.9% HR/FB rate.

More on Pie and Murton

In the comments of the previous post, Robert noted

....talent and upside are a factor. You have to give Felix a chance....

To which I responded

Pie has tools, but no track record of hitting

Which is bogus. Basically, Pie has hit as well as Murton at every level, at a younger age, until AAA and the Majors.

Why does he hit the wall? I think it is he reached a level where he could no longer hide his weakness, and hasn't adjusted. He's had a lot of time to do so. He is young, so he has that on his side, but he has nearly 900 PA's at AAA already.

Take a look at some comparable numbers - they both played in the same minor leagues (if not organizations) from A+ to AAA. I also include a few projections, first as-is, and again, normalized to 600 PA's.

You'll see that they have virtually equivalent power (if not by ISO, but by SLG/AVG), but wildly different strike-out rates. He's likely to develop more power than Murton ever will, but I don't know if he'll make so many outs that it won't matter.

A+ FSL	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	505	455	73	13	63	50	71	.292	.362	.437	.799	.70	.145	1.50	22	14.1
Pie	450	412	79	8	47	38	113	.299	.358	.442	.800	.34	.143	1.48	19	25.1
AA SOU	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	350	313	46	8	46	29	42	.342	.403	.498	.901	.69	.156	1.46	23	12.0
Pie	262	240	41	11	25	16	53	.304	.349	.551	.903	.30	.247	1.81	20	20.2
AAA PCL	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	210	185	34	7	30	22	26	.335	.410	.557	.967	.85	.222	1.66	25	12.4
Pie	873	788	129	24	100	65	166	.306	.361	.484	.845	.39	.178	1.58	22	19.0
MLB	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	max age	K/100 PA
Murton	929	830	124	28	98	87	123	.296	.365	.455	.820	.71	.159	1.54	25	13.2
Pie	194	177	26	2	20	14	43	.215	.271	.333	.604	.33	.118	1.55	22	22.2
Marcel	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	381	340	51	11	42	36	54	.291	.360	.450	.810	.67	.159	1.55	26	14.2
Pie	297	266	40	6	35	25	55	.256	.320	.402	.722	.45	.147	1.57	23	18.5
BILL JAMES	PA*	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	244	220	33	7	28	23	30	.305	.373	.468	.841	.77	.163	1.53	26	12.3
Pie	573	533	82	16	62	40	111	.283	.333	.456	.789	.36	.173	1.61	23	19.4
CHONE	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
murton	466	420	60	14	59	43	61	.288	.358	.455	.813	.70	.167	1.58	26	13.1
pie	536	496	65	13	65	38	107	.272	.326	.433	.759	.36	.161	1.59	23	20.0
Marcel	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	600	535	80	17	66	57	85	.291	.360	.450	.810	.67	.159	1.55	26	14.2
Pie	600	537	81	12	71	51	111	.256	.320	.402	.722	.45	.147	1.57	23	18.5
BILL JAMES	PA*	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
Murton	600	541	81	17	69	57	74	.305	.373	.468	.841	.77	.163	1.53	26	12.3
Pie	600	558	86	17	65	42	116	.283	.333	.456	.789	.36	.173	1.61	23	19.4
CHONE	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB: SO	ISO	SLG/ AVG	age	K/100 PA
murton	600	541	77	18	76	55	79	.288	.358	.455	.813	.70	.167	1.58	26	13.1
pie	600	555	73	15	73	43	120	.272	.326	.433	.759	.36	.161	1.59	23	20.0

Felix and Matt - Pitch Preferences

Following up on where I began with Mr. Pie and his PITCHf/x data, I decided to compare him to Matt Murton.

Despite the small and differing sample sizes (342324 pitches for Pie and 555 pitches for Murton), I think there's a picture of their differences that's already clear.

I've flipped the columns to match-up the lefty/right difference. I can also split out by pitcher hand, but the data sets get too small.
These numbers are wrong - new post coming

1. Felix gets worked away a lot more, and doesn't get much inside


2. Matt sees a more even distribution around the zone


3. Felix chases the low and away stuff, with poor contact rates


4. Matt does like pitches up-and-in, with amazingly consistent contact

Who would you like to see get 400 AB's next year?

Another Slice of Pie

Another look at DWL stats for Felix Pie, before I get back to his PITCHf/x data.

The regular season finished and the playoffs are underway. Felix finished 15th in OPS, 6th amongst outfielders. Without that context, his numbers are not impressive.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Regular Season	36	127	19	31	8	1	2	14	47	11	30	6	3	.314	.370	.244	.684
Playoffs	7	27	5	8	1	1	0	2	11	1	4	0		.321	.407	.296	.728

In the Fuld?

Looks to me like the competition for the 5th outfield spot just ended.

The Cubs dealt Angel Pagan to the New York Mets on Saturday for two Minor Leaguers, reuniting the outfielder with the organization which had originally developed him.

CCB agrees.

I do think sending Pagan to the Mets is clearly just a way to clear up a spot on the 40 man roster. It will also make Sam Fuld making the team as a 5th outfielder a lot better.

As I've mentioned once or twice, Fuld has made a serious case for a roster spot, particularly in light of his AFL performance. He won both the MVP and Stenson Award.

And he made this catch against the Pirates on 9/22.

Pie Projections

Looking ahead, it seems Felix is in line to be at least a platoon centerfielder for the cubs in '08. A few projections are already available, with PECOTA and ZIPS due soon. I think they're optimistic, so far.

First off, Bill James
Based on 593 PAs, Bill predicts a pretty blah season at the plate (avg/obp/slg hr-rbi-r-sb)
283/333/456 16-62-82-23

Chone comes up with similar, but weaker, numbers (536 PA)
272/326/433 13-65-65-22

Marcel is even more pessimistic (594 PA, adjusted from 297)
256/320/402 12-70-80-16

Here are PECOTA numbers from last year - the 2008 is part of the 5-yr. forecast and will be updated based on 2007's actuals. (579 PA)
280/336/469 20-69-87-19

Just taking an average of these numbers gives us a decent idea of what Felix may be able to achieve as an everyday player.

576 PA
273/329/440 15-67-79-20

Nothing special, acceptable if he can bat low in the order. It may be crowded down there if Theriot and Cedeno continue to take ABs away from DeRosa. A platoon with Murton, with Fukudome spending some time in center, or Soriano for that matter, might actually work.