Tough loss, Kosuke owns Chicago

His day was good, his new fanbase energized. And then he tied the
game with a three-run shot. Welcome to Chicago, please take a curtain
call.

We're not booing, we're Fuking

First pitch, line drive double for Kosuke

Zambrano looks great, very smooth.

Field is dry, very impressive

Tarp Off

Time to settle our tab and head in.
Go Cubs Go

Opening Day - Sheets v Zambrano

Misty and a cool 43°, it is expected to be in the low 50's and cloudy at game time. Showers are possible all afternoon.

If you go to my 2008 PITCHf/x post on the whole staff, you'll find a couple Sheets v Zambrano pieces in Carlos' list.

I'll be posting live from section 433 during the game, and I'll have a post on the data from today's game later. After I have some post-game coffee. Off to Merkle's for some pre-game refreshments.

Cubs Opening Day Weather

From the Weather Channel - wet, but warm.

2008 Cubs PITCHf/x - Pitchers

What You'll Find Here

All data presented in this post is from 2007 games in Wrigley Field, unless otherwise noted. Many of the pitchers have been covered previously, so some of the following sections will be comprised of a link.

Explanation of the Charts

These charts are all from the catcher's perspective.

PFX - spin movement in inches
The two dimensions (pfx_x and pfx_z) tell you how much the ball moved based on spin alone - not trajectory or arm angle. It is impacted by weather and altitude.

The "x" tells you horizontal movement (in inches) and the "z" is vertical. Gravity is taken out of the calculation for pfx_z, so the movement is how much the ball moved up or down due to spin as opposed to gravity alone. A positive number does not mean the ball is literally rising. But it may be perceived as such by hitters. A number close to, or below, 0, for pfx_z is a pitch that drops quite a bit. In general, note the pfx_z value for a pitcher's fastest pitch, and consider the number of inches of difference between that and their other pitches.

Release Points and Plate Location (feet)
pretty much self-explanatory, measured as x0 and z0 (x and z location at time 0). Release points for all data in this analysis is from 50ft out (y0=50) - not exactly release point, but shortly thereafter. The black bar on the release charts shows the pitcher's height + 10 inches.

Plate location is when y=1.47ft. It's values (px and pz) are shown in the tables, charts are part of a later edition on hits and outs.

---

Starting with the injured Scott Eyre. Eyre throws a fastball (90-91), a slider (82-83) and a cutter/change-up (80-81).

---

Jon Lieber
Very limited data available, see here for a brief "analysis". I'll chart Jon once 2008 numbers pour in.

---

Bob Howry has either one, two or three fastballs. You be the judge.

---

Trip down memory lane (to September) for Carlos Marmol - here is an analysis of his two pitches. I call his slider a curve ball, but it is still nasty as all git'up. I need to revive the 5th graph from that post. Update: I've found some other analysis, more recent, that I forgot that I ran. He appears to have three pitches. I'll link that up later.

---

Our closer, Kerry Wood. Don't expect much of pitch #4 this year.

---

Carmen Pignatiello was covered recently right here.

---

Kevin Hart is on the team after a good showing last year and strong performance in camp. For now, I'll call it three pitches, but it could be two fastballs up there. I'll see what 2008 shows us.

---

Michael Wuertz is coveted by other teams, like the Tigers, as he his a key man in the bullpen, but keeps a low profile. He's got a fastball-slider-curve combo that is very effective.

---

The starters have all been covered before. Here they are

1. Carlos Zambrano
   
   
   1. vs. Sheets 1
   
   
   2. vs. Sheets 2
   
   
   3. Pitch ID (posted at AnotherCubsBlog.net)
   
   


2. Ted Lilly



3. Ryan Dempster (posted at AnotherCubsBlog.net)



4. Rich Hill Got plenty'o'Rich
   
   
   1. Four pitches
   
   
   2. Numbers
   
   
   3. Plate
   
   
   4. Fool
   
   
   5. vs. Marshall
   
   
   6. Clusters
   
   
   7. Weather and Curves
   
   
   8. Hill vs Bedard Curves
   
   
   9. Hill vs Bedard Fastballs


5. Jason Marquis

I've got more, but that's good for now.

M&M will Melt in Iowa

Matt Murton and Sean Marshall were optioned today, leaving Carmen Pignatiello as the final man on the roster. The Cubs have not been able to find a suitable trade for Murton, yet.

PITCHERS (12 + 2 D.L.):

21-Jason Marquis, RHP
22-Kevin Hart, RHP
30-Ted Lilly, LHP
32-Jon Lieber, RHP
34-Kerry Wood, RHP
37-Angel Guzman, RHP (60-day DL)
38-Carlos Zambrano, RHP
43-Michael Wuertz, RHP
46-Ryan Dempster, RHP
47-Scott Eyre, LHP (15-day DL)
49-Carlos Marmol, RHP
53-Rich Hill, LHP
62-Bob Howry, RHP
63-Carmen Pignatiello, LHP

CATCHERS (2):

18-Geovany Soto
24-Henry Blanco

INFIELDERS (7):

2-Ryan Theriot
5-Ronny Cedeno
7-Mark DeRosa
16-Aramis Ramirez
17-Mike Fontenot
25-Derrek Lee
33-Daryle Ward

OUTFIELDERS (4):

1-Kosuke Fukudome
9-Reed Johnson
12-Alfonso Soriano
20-Felix Pie

Decision Day

The Cubs flew in from Vegas, 27 strong. Two guys have to go.

Matt Murton will be traded or optioned to Iowa. There's been nothing fresh from the rumor mill in a couple days.

Sean Marshall and Carmen Pignatiello will learn their fate today - one will make the team, the other won't. The job isn't a long-term one, since Scott Eyre is eligible to return in about five days.

The Cubs will decide today if Carmen Pignatiello, a 25-year-old left-hander, will begin the 2008 season with the parent club or in Triple A Iowa.

It makes almost no sense to convert Marshall into a reliever for the week that Eyre will be out, and Piggy has pitched very well all Spring.

More on Yesterday's Pitch ID's

Here's the whole kit-and-kaboodle, by pitcher. See here for definitions.

first	last	CH	FA	SL	KN	FF	SI	FC	FS	CU	All
Jonathan	Albaladejo	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Brian	Bannister	1	25	19	1	0	0	9	2	14	71
Adam	Bass	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Denny	Bautista	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Joe	Beimel	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Rafael	Betancourt	0	11	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	13
Chad	Billingsley	1	48	7	0	0	0	12	0	9	77
Jeremy	Bonderman	7	31	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	53
Joe	Borowski	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Dallas	Braden	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Andrew	Brown	0	11	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Jonathan	Broxton	0	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Jason	Bulger	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Shawn	Camp	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Fausto	Carmona	4	12	6	0	0	1	0	3	0	26
Bartolo	Colon	2	39	16	0	2	1	0	0	0	60
Manny	Corpas	0	8	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Juan	Cruz	1	7	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Matt	Daley	4	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	25
Chad	Durbin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Brian	Fuentes	3	19	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	28
Eric	Gagne	2	8	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	12
Geoff	Geary	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
Chris	George	0	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Enrique	Gonzalez	0	9	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	14
Mike	Gosling	0	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	7
Cole	Hamels	4	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11
Fernando	Hernandez	1	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	6	13
Lincoln	Holdzkom	0	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17
Hunter	Jones	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Todd	Jones	2	6	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	12
Logan	Kensing	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Steve	Kline	4	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Tim	Lincecum	11	45	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	63
Greg	Maddux	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
Ron	Mahay	3	8	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Ryan	Mattheus	2	8	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Brandon	Medders	0	11	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	18
Cla	Meredith	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
Andrew	Miller	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
Justin	Miller	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
Guillermo	Mota	4	9	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	17
Leo	Nunez	0	7	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	10
Vladimir	Nunez	0	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Darren	O'Day	0	13	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	19
Will	Ohman	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
Jailen	Peguero	0	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Rafael	Perez	0	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	11
Scott	Proctor	2	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Jeff	Ridgway	2	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	20
Royce	Ring	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11
Connor	Robertson	0	5	10	0	0	0	7	0	0	22
Wandy	Rodriguez	1	47	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	65
Glendon	Rusch	0	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Brad	Salmon	0	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Joe	Saunders	0	15	8	0	0	0	0	4	0	27
Bobby	Seay	0	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Alex	Serrano	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Greg	Smith	34	26	4	0	0	0	1	0	6	71
Joakim	Soria	1	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	9
Jeff	Suppan	21	37	17	0	0	2	2	4	10	93
Jack	Taschner	2	20	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	25
Julian	Tavarez	9	22	6	0	0	0	0	0	3	40
Joe	Thatcher	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Salomon	Torres	1	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	10
Ramon	Troncoso	0	17	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	20
Derrick	Turnbow	1	13	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15
Woody	Williams	5	11	17	0	0	0	0	0	14	47
Brian	Wilson	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5
Brian	Wolfe	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Wesley	Wright	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Yasuhiko	Yabuta	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5
-	-	164	750	205	4	3	4	45	20	126	1321

Gameday Pitch ID's - early returns

Taking a look at two pitchers is by no means conclusive, but, so far, the pitch identification in place on Gameday 2008 is off a bit. No surprise, this is new stuff.

Here's a quick example, using Bartolo Colon and Joe Borowski.

Bartolo on the left, Borowski on the right.



Based on spin movement (in inches), it is hard to agree with the "SI" (sinker) applied to one pitch by Colon. The split of Borowski's change is rather suspicious.

I'll keep track of this stuff over time to see how it improves.

PITCHf/x and the Reds

Doug Gray has launched a new blog, Reds PITCHf/x. He's started out with Edinson Volquez, in two parts. Dude throws hard.



Doug will give us a chance to enjoy PITCHf/x analysis, before and after the moment Johnny Cueto's arm falls off.

Gameday Enhanced - New PITCHf/x Goodies

Awesome stuff coming soon from MLB.com Gameday

In addition to expanding this technology to include all games, MLB.com will be the first provider ever to offer real-time pitch identification (fastball, curveball . . . even knuckleballs) for every pitch thrown in every game. We have worked closely with several MLB clubs to develop this feature and believe it will provide an entirely new way to enjoy the game and appreciate the incredible ability of Major League pitchers.

Finally, later this season, MLB.com will introduce a fully functional 3D pitch environment with a new set of features that will present the pitch data like you never have seen before. You will have the ability to select the camera angle, zoom in and out, pan across the field, and isolate different pitches.

That's PITCHf/x they're talking about. Very nice. I hope to learn more about this in San Francisco at the PITCHf/x Summit (feel free to click the "Donate" button at the top right of my site, nudge-wink).

Update
The system is on in Houston right now. Here's something new.

pitch_type="FA" type_confidence="0.8992467658127579

That's a Fastball from Wandy Rodriquez, and a measure of how confident the system is about that diagnosis. Sweet.

Update again
I've updated my scripts to load the new data. I added two fields to by pitch table (a char(3) and a float) and discovered the need to modify the existing "type" field. Currently a char(1), I changed it to char(3), although the values are two characters (so far). The pitch-type is being repeated in that field, so, if you've been using "type" for something in your queries, you'll need to adapt to the change.

Updated again again
Pitch types found in yesterday's data - FF seems to come up on the Gameday display as Fastball, so I'll just call it that for now. I think this is what we've got so far:

Brian Dopirak - released by the Cubs

A former top prospect and Cubs' minor league player of the year, Brian Dopirak was released from the Cubs minor league roster today.

“Brian was a real difficult release,” said Cubs Vice President of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita. “He had been with this organization for a very long time.”

It's been all downhill since 2004, unfortunately.

Tim Lahey Waived and Claimed

Tim Lahey is now a member of the Phillies.

In other news, the Braves wisely claimed Ruben Gotay, who was foolishly waived by the Mets.

Sunday TV Viewing

Got this email from ACTA

Baseball legend Bill James to appear on 60 Minutes

Bill James, author of the new Bill James Gold Mine 2008, will appear on the
CBS TV news show 60 Minutes this Sunday night, March 30. The program will
air at 7:00pm ET/PT.

Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew interviewed Bill James over the course
of three days at the World Champion Boston Red Sox spring training camp a
couple of weeks ago. They also filmed segments with Red Sox staff, including
manager Terry Francona and general manager Theo Epstein.

Check your local listings, and wait patiently for the basketball games to end.

Talking Chop "gets" Murton; plus Orel Brent

Red still has fans in Georgia.

Matt Murton is a very similar hitter to Diaz in the numbers he puts up -- not quite as good average wise, but he probably has more power. For whatever reason, Lou Pinella never seemed to take to the red headed outfielder and the Cubs seem to constantly find reasons to bring in other options in the outfield year after year.

gondee offers us Royce Ring.

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Chicago residents, fear not, we won't be subjected to Brent Musburger.

He will partner with Orel Hershiser to call Brewers-Cubs. Unfortunately his audience will not include a soul in Chicago, where the ESPN telecast will be blacked out as the game is carried on WGN-Ch. 9.

Here's the latest forecast from weather.com

Picking Apart Pignatiello's Pitches

Carmen Pignatiello, who is vying for the final job (LOOGY while Eyre is out) for the 2008 Cubs, throws three pitches. Fastball, the occasional change-up, and a breaking ball.



I thought the fastball/change could also be a 4-seam and a 2-seam fastball, but spin-rate is much lower for the 2nd pitch and a 2 seamer should break the other way. Breaking ball is more slider-ish, rather than a curve (spin rate is low). I'll stick with fastball/change/breaking ball.

There are only 23 pitches for Carmen in the 2007 data, and 3 of those are possibly for another, right-handed, pitcher. I tossed those out, leaving just 20 pitches.



Each chart is from the catcher's perspective (viewer's left is inside to a right-handed hitter). PFX is spin movement, and that is in inches. Plate location and release point are measured in feet.

Also included in the tables within each chart are spin direction (degrees) and rate (RPM). The MPH is for the speed at release. The table is also shown above.

The tables indicate average pitch for each type, and those are shown in the charts as the white bubbles (with tiny polka-dots).

Release Points (ft)



Spin Movement (in)



Plate Location (ft)



Looks to be pounding the strike zone. Very limited sample, but that breaking ball isn't that effective. The change, on the other hand, looks alright - not much speed difference from his "fastball", but kept it down, and moving down (relatively).

Hopefully I'll be gathering more data from him next week.

Battling for the last spot, Pignatiello has the edge

Before seeing Sean Marshall pitch today, Lou Piniella already knew that Carmen Pignatiello was going to make it tough to give the LOOGY job to Sean Marshall.

"The way Pignatiello is pitching, it's starting to make you review your choice a little bit," Piniella said. "Not that we don't like Marshall -- we do like Marshall. This young man [Pignatiello] has really pitched well this spring and he's pitching with confidence and he's done that role before."

Yes, you like Marshall, the same way you like Matt Murton.

Lou's mention of Pignatiello's confidence seems noteworthy (the emphasis above is mine). As a lefty starter, with Hill and Lilly already locking down spots, Marshall only had an outside chance at a rotation spot. Last year, he appeared to lose Lou's confidence down the stretch, too.

With Scott Eyre going on the DL (officially now), someone will emerge from Vegas with a job in the bullpen. While both Marshall and Pignatiello are set to pitch against the Mariners, Sean got in for a two innings today.

Sean Marshall...escaped a jam in the fourth inning when he got Martin Maldonado to line into a double play....gave up an RBI double to Mike Rivera in the fifth...walked three and gave up one hit

Not a great outing, and a line drive double play is a lucky break, to put it mildly.

If Carmen pitches well tomorrow, I think it will be really tough for Marshall to get the job done, no matter what he does on Saturday.

1. Pignatiello has pitched very well in relief all Spring


2. Pignatiello has more experience in that role than Marshall


3. Marshall provides great depth if he stays stretched out in Iowa


4. Eyre will be back in a couple weeks, most likely, so why throw Sean out of whack for minimal benefit?


5. Sean did himself no favors today


6. Lou was already backing off from the Sean's-job-to-win attitude.

That's a half-dozen rationalizations reasons for me to stick to the "Carmen makes the team" claims I've made all Spring.

Bobby Fukubreu Heading to the Strip

Keith Law's blog has his thoughts on Tuesday's batting practice (sub. req.)

Fukudome spent most of his session hitting the ball to left field, flicking the bat out and trying to make solid contact ...... last few swings, he stayed back a little longer and drove the ball to right, finally hitting one out on his last swing ...... the Bobby Abreu comparison holds
Felix Pie ...... has a lot of excess motion in [his swing] ...... His path to the ball isn't long and when he makes solid contact, the ball takes off
Geovany Soto ...... hits off his back foot with almost no weight transfer ...... an unusual approach to say the least
Matt Murton is being wasted on the Cubs' bench ...... drawback is his platoon split

The team travels to Las Vegas tomorrow, while the minor league camp takes on the Brewers. Ted Lilly starts on Friday against the Mariners. He'll face Carlos Silva, while Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista will face Ryan Dempster on Saturday.

Reed Johnson by Pitch Location

Here's a little more than you ever needed to know about your 4th outfielder. The news isn't all that great. He likes the ball down and shouldn't.

Each table in the image below (click to enlarge) is from catcher's perspective.



Got all that?

Basically, he handles the ball inside and/or up pretty well. Problem is, he swings at pitches down quite a bit, but with very little success.

How does he match up against other hitters? If you check out this post on low ball hitting, you can find a more (i.e. how I did it), but I'll repeat much of the data here, and then dig into Reed with the same filters.

Swing Rate - Pitches in Dirt
Alfonso Soriano 40.0%
Ichiro Suzuki   20.8
Luke Scott      20.0
Mark Teahen     20.0
group average    7.1

Contact (or lack thereof) at the original Ankles and Dirt post). Reed didn't make the cut (< 10 dirt balls seen), but I ran his numbers anyway. He got four pitches in the dirt (pz <=0, not by the human generated "in the dirt" notation from the PITCHf/x system), took three, whiffed on one.

Moving on, and up, to "Ankles" and below.

Swing Rate - Pitch at Ankles
Alfonso Soriano 44.9%
Alex Cintron    44.0
Garret Anderson 40.2
Jay Gibbons     40.0
Kendry Morales  36.8
Ichiro Suzuki   36.5
Geoff Jenkins   36.4
Matt Diaz       35.7
Jason LaRue     35.7
Delmon Young    35.4
Felix Pie       35.3
group average   13.0

Reed is at 27.3%, so not the worst offender, but still twice the average for the group I selected (based on # of pitches seen).

Contact Rate - Pitch at Ankles
Ichiro Suzuki   55.3
Alex Cintron    54.5
Ivan Rodriguez  45.5
Alfonso Soriano 41.9
Aaron Miles     40.0
group average   21.2

Reed is at 16.7%, well below league average.

Cubs numbers for Ankles on down, with Reed and without Cintron. Click and sort.

last	first	thresh.	zone	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR	pz	count	swings	swrt	contact	crate
Soriano	Alfonso	0.76	1.52	38	0	18	8	5	0	0.30	69	31	44.9%	13	41.9%
Pie	Felix	0.81	1.62	11	0	2	2	2	0	0.26	17	6	35.3%	4	66.7%
Ramirez	Aramis	0.84	1.68	32	0	3	3	0	0	0.35	38	6	15.8%	3	50.0%
Theriot	Ryan	0.73	1.45	26	0	2	0	1	0	0.24	29	3	10.3%	1	33.3%
Lee	Derrek	0.88	1.75	76	1	7	1	0	0	0.42	85	8	9.4%	1	12.5%
Fontenot	Mike	0.73	1.46	25	0	4	0	0	0	0.30	29	4	13.8%	0	0.0%
Murton	Matt	0.74	1.47	19	0	0	0	0	0	0.43	19	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Johnson	Reed	0.70	1.41	16	0	5	0	1	0	0.35	22	6	27.3%	1	16.7%

As you can see, Reed Johnson is prone to swing low as much as any Cub, except Pie and Soriano. Thing is, his contact rate is horrific on those swings.

Cintron Cut - Murton Next?

Alex Cintron was given his release and is no longer with the Cubs. Lou has decided to keep Ronny Cedeno and Mike Fontenot on the bench. The question now is what exactly will happen to Matt Murton.

"I don't know," Piniella said.

OK, can you speculate a little bit?

"If Matt's not here with us, I hope we can find a Major League job for him, because he's a good player, and he deserves that," Piniella said. "I'm sure that, if he's not going to be here, that Jim will try to accomodate [sic] him as much as possible."

I don't trust the live box scores, but looks like Matt pinch-hit and played the field and got a 2nd PA (drew a walk and scored).

With Scott Eyre headed for the DL, the LOOGY job is Sean Marshall's to lose. He'll make two appearances from the bullpen before Opening Day.

"If [Marshall] can do that, and we're comfortable he can do it, and he feels good about it, he'll come with us and be our left-hander out of the bullpen," Piniella said. "If not, we'll send him down for some work and bring [Carmen] Pignatiello with us."

I don't like this plan. I think Marshall, and the Cubs, are better served with him in Iowa staying stretched out as a starter. Pignatiello looks ready to my amateur eye. The depth Marshall can provide to our rotation has more value, to me, than he could in a limited relief role.

Are You Ready Yet?

The Cubs made room for Reed Johnson on the 40-man by putting Angel Guzman on the 60-day DL. The roster was trimmed a little closer to 25, sending down five players.

Sam Fuld and Eric Patterson were sent to AAA, while Les Walrond, Casey McGehee and Micah Hoffpauir were assigned to the Minor League camp. According to TCR has one less pitcher than Cubs.com (which says nothing more than "17"), and I can't come up with another.

This leaves 31 players with the big team.

Catchers (2)
Geovany Soto, Henry Blanco

Infielders (8)
Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Daryle Ward, Ronny Cedeno, Alex Cintron (NRI)

Outfielders (5)
Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Murton, Alfonso Soriano, Reed Johnson, Felix Pie

Pitchers (16)
Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis, Bob Howry, Scott Eyre (DL soon), Carmen Pignatiello, Kerry Wood, Michael Wuertz, Carlos Marmol, Kevin Hart, Tim Lahey, Chad Fox (NRI)

Lahey, Fox, Eyre and Marshall should all be out of the way before Vegas (or Piggy instead of Marshall). The Cubs will still need to shed two position players - probably Fontenot and Cintron.

Murton could be traded, which would let the Cubs keep an extra infielder. As much as I like Murton, we just don't need him anymore, beyond depth. He may have more value to the club in a trade, however.

That said, the Cubs really don't need to do anything else with this team. I may not like the batting order, but this is a solid club with few weaknesses that are presently apparent. There is depth in the rotation and from both sides in the bullpen. Reed Johnson's signing just rounds out the roster to perfection. It is just five days to Opening Day, and I'm finally get that excited feeling in my stomach. Maybe it was the glimpse of Boston and Oakland this morning, too, since today is the first day of the season. But I'm ready.

Johnson Signed

Well, we're down to Cedeno v Cintron for the last job (plus a replacement, assuming Eyre is DL bound).

Will Hill find his Form? More on Reed Johnson

Rich Hill starts today and needs a good one to get himself back on track. To date, his Spring numbers have been ugly. He is yet to make it through four innings, let alone six, which is what I hope he can make today. After 3 k's and no walks in his first Spring appearance, Rich has given up 14 walks and has struck-out only 5 in 10.2 innings of work.

He'll have a full bullpen backing him up.

Kevin Hart
Bob Howry
Tim Lahey
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall
Carmen Pignatiello
Michael Wuertz

Freshly minted closer Kerry Wood has today off.

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The Reed Johnson pursuit is just ramping up. MLB Trade Rumors (and here) has these teams looking at Johnson:

Cubs
Mets
Red Sox
Rays
Rangers
Padres

Jayson Stark (sub. req.) has this today

Two baseball men we spoke with Monday described Johnson as "the perfect fit" for the Cubs....If the Cubs do reel in Johnson, it could free them to trade Matt Murton in the next few days. We're hearing that the Mets, who have scouted Johnson extensively, are not interested.

There are conflicting reports regarding the Mets and Reed, so we'll see how this plays out.

Five to Go

Five more make-believe games before Opening Day. The Cubs hit the road for two straight. Tuesday it's Scottsdale where Rich Hill goes up against fellow lefty Jonathon Sanchez. I previewed Sanchez last night. The "road trip" wraps up against the Angels.

In Tuesday's game against the Halos, Carlos Zambrano squares off against Jered Weaver. It will be a short outing for Carlos, he'll get plenty of rest for the start on the 31st. We've seen Weaver in the Cactus League already. You can see his pitch arsenal here.

The last 2008 game at HoHoKam will be Thursday. The Brewers will be visiting, so the Cubs won't show much in terms of regular season pitching talent.

The final two games will be in Las Vegas against the Mariners. The Cubs will be the "visitor" on Friday before getting last-licks in the finale. After the that, the Cubs get a day off. After that, I take one off while they get their first real working day of 2008.

Roster Still Unsettled, After All

Lou isn't done making up his mind yet. In this Cubs.com piece, two names are conspicuous in their absence. One is a surprise.

If Scott Eyre is hurt, there are three candidates for the job. The third is not the one I expected.

The candidates include Carmen Pignatiello, who has not given up a run or walked a batter this spring; Sean Marshall, who will be tested in relief this week; and Les Walrond.

Neal Cotts, where are you?

The bench is more mysterious than I imagined. I know Ronny Cedeno and Alex Cintron were battling for one spot, and Hendry is hunting down a center (reed) fielder.

The bench also has yet to be finalized. Piniella said he didn't like keeping people in limbo. Henry Blanco and Daryle Ward will be on the bench, but the other spots have yet to be determined.

And Matt Murton is not on the list, so I guess that puts him in limbo.

EP is done.

Eric Patterson has played well all spring, getting time at both second base and in the outfield, but Piniella said he was "on the outskirts."

So, is Matt Murton in limbo or on the outskirts? Where are they in relation to each other? If the Cubs get Reed Johnson, does this make you switch out for Sam Fuld?

Murton, unlike Cedeno, has options left. Sam Fuld has plenty, too. The Cubs can move him up-and-down through 2010.

I may be (over-) reading into Muskat's article, but Iowa may be a suitable place for Murton while the Cubs try and trade him - assuming they sign Johnson or facsimile thereof.

Clinging to a Reed

The roster is almost settled. The Cubs need another outfielder, and have to finalize the utility infield spot. Ronny Cedeno, no longer a consideration for center field, has the edge over Alex Cintron.

Ken Rosenthal is reporting on something that is no surprise

The Cubs are showing the heaviest interest in outfielder Reed Johnson, envisioning him as the right-handed-hitting counterpart to center fielder Felix Pie, major-league sources say.

Even Muskat has a clue on this one

The Cubs have looked at Texas' Marlon Byrd, who started in right field on Monday against them, but were believed to be leaning more toward Reed Johnson

If I were Reed Johnson, I'd be thanking the Blue Jays for signing Shannon Stewart and cutting me free to join the Cubs.

Given this news, and the apparent demise of the Roberts deal, let me delve into Reed Johnson's projected numbers

avg/obp/slg (ab) hr-rbi-r-sb

Bill James 272/345/387 (279) 5-28-41-4
CHONE      267/336/388 (389) 7-45-48-4
Marcel     275/343/408 (363) 7-38-53-6
MINER      262/330/375 (168) 3-15-22-2
ZiPS       272/341/400 (320) 6-32-47-3
CBS        273/342/407 (275) 6-40-40-3
PECOTA     261/322/385 (347) 6-38-43-4

This gives him a projected OPS of around .730, which should be conservative if he's a platoon player.

He'd be a good pick-up , but it wouldn't really solve the Cubs depth issues in the outfield, center field in particular. Organizationally, this is a gap that we haven't seen the last of.


sources:
fangraphs.com
sportsline.com
baseballprospectus.com

Pitching Settled - No Surprises

Kerry Wood woke up with his arm attached, and Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster get the 3rd and 5th spots in the rotation. Jon Lieber joins the bullpen. Kevin Hart, as expected, also gets a job. The remaining question is around Scott Eyre - if he's hurt, either Neal Cotts or Carmen Pignatiello, or Sean Marshall.

Open questions remain for the remaining utility and back-up CF jobs

The Cubs still have to determine the utility players for the bench, and Piniella hoped to settle that before the team goes to Las Vegas, Nev., for its final two exhibition games against the Seattle Mariners. Alex Cintron is in the mix, but has been hampered by a sore hamstring.

2009 WBC Set

I enjoyed the 2007 World Baseball Classic, despite the headaches is caused teams. Fukudome was part of the winning team, and I imagine he'll be one of several Cubs competing next time.

The tournament will switch to double-elimination in the first round.

_China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will play in Group A at the Tokyo Dome from March 5-9.

_Australia, Cuba, Mexico and South Africa will play in Group B at Mexico City's Foro Sol Stadium from March 8-12.

_Canada, Italy, United States and Venezuela will play in Group C at Toronto's Rogers Centre from March 8-12.

_Dominican Republic, Netherlands, Panama and Puerto Rico will play in Group D at San Juan's Hiram Bithorn Stadium from March 7-11.

It's good to see Puerto Rico hosting, they need a boost after their Winter League fell apart this past year.

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Kason Gabbard Preview

Kason Gabbard faces the Cubs on Monday in Mesa. Here's the same stuff as the Jonathon Sanchez preview. Add'l info in this post (in some of the tables, charts are otherwise the same) includes px/pz (plate location) and x0/z0 (release points).

Gabbard's got a fastball, a straight change with good speed drop-off, plus a curve.

Pitch Characteristics

#	x0	z0	px	pz	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	SpinDir	SpinRate
1	2.111	6.374	0.545	2.288	80.754	9.174	5.444	120.705	1197.608
2	2.078	6.436	0.065	2.605	87.332	9.836	7.508	127.303	1509.618
3	1.945	6.739	0.116	2.195	76.377	-3.15	-7.287	156.065	826.486

The PFX numbers are spin related movement in inches. z is vertical, x lateral. Spin direction is in degrees, rate in RPM.

Pitch Events

#	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
1	40	15	17	13	20	0	105
2	88	37	5	17	35	1	183
3	49	22	13	23	16	1	124
	177	74	35	53	71	2	412

"X" is in play

Event Frequencies

#	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
1	38.1%	14.3%	16.2%	12.4%	19.0%	0.0%	25.5%
2	48.1%	20.2%	2.7%	9.3%	19.1%	0.5%	44.4%
3	39.5%	17.7%	10.5%	18.5%	12.9%	0.8%	30.1%
	43.0%	18.0%	8.5%	12.9%	17.2%	0.5%

Rates

#	SwRt	Whiff	B:CS
1	47.6%	34.0%	2.67
2	31.7%	8.6%	2.38
3	42.7%	24.5%	2.23
	39.1%	21.7%	2.39

Swing Rate (SS+F+X+HR)/All
Whiff Rate (SS)/Swings
Balls to Called Stikes

The charts, starting with release points (in feet), spin movement (inches) and plate location (feet again). All charts from the catcher's perspective. You can see the scatter of every pitch and the average by cluster (pitch type) for all three.

Release Point





Spin movement





Plate location

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Jonathon Sanchez Pitch Preview

The Cubs have six more exhibition games before a day off on the 30th. Monday the 31st, of course, is Opening Day.

Tuesday the Cubs face Jonathon Sanchez and the Giants (Muskat has me all screwed up with her scheduled pitcher updates). Monday, the Cubs play the Rangers and Kason Gabbard. Check out Gabbard's preview, too.

Jonathon Sanchez Pitch Preview

Sanchez looks to be a three-pitch guy. I'll call it fastball, change and curve.

Pitch Characteristics

#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	SpinDir	SpinRate
1	90.9	9.88	8.08	129.7	1609.1
2	83.6	10.45	2.49	103.8	1259.8
3	81.1	0.13	-3.45	194.8	484.1

The PFX numbers are spin related movement in inches. z is vertical, x lateral. Spin direction is in degrees, rate in RPM.

Pitch Events

#	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
1	64	37	17	30	24	2	174
2	21	7	7	13	14	1	63
3	8	3	2	8	2	0	23
	93	47	26	51	40	3	260

"X" is in play

Event Frequencies

#	B	CS	SS	F	X	HR
1	36.8%	21.3%	9.8%	17.2%	13.8%	1.1%	66.9%
2	33.3%	11.1%	11.1%	20.6%	22.2%	1.6%	24.2%
3	34.8%	13.0%	8.7%	34.8%	8.7%	0.0%	8.8%
	35.8%	18.1%	10.0%	19.6%	15.4%	1.2%

Rates

#	SwRt	Whiff	B:CS
1	42.0%	23.3%	1.73
2	55.6%	20.0%	3.00
3	52.2%	16.7%	2.67
	46.2%	21.7%	1.98

Swing Rate (SS+F+X+HR)/All
Whiff Rate (SS)/Swings
Balls to Called Stikes

His fastball looks to be his most effective pitch for getting a strike, and not much is done against his curve.

The charts, starting with release points (in feet), spin movement (inches) and plate location (feet again). All charts from the catcher's perspective. You can see the scatter of every pitch and the average by cluster (pitch type) for all three.

Release Point





Spin movement





Plate location

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Piggy to the 'Pen? Eyre to DL? Johnson or DaVanon to Cubs?

Scott Eyre is hurting, Neal Cotts was cut, so Carmen Pignatiello and Sean Marshall have shots at a job on Opening Day.

Scott Eyre came up with elbow soreness at an unfortunate time and could force the Cubs to put him on the disabled list to start the season.

That's not good, but hence the pitching depth.

This I like

The Cubs are also looking at adding a right-handed hitting outfielder, and Piniella said that either Reed Johnson or Jeff DaVanon could draw the Cubs interest. DaVanon, 34, was released by San Diego on Saturday, and has a .295 career average in 528 games. Johnson, 31, was released by Toronto on Saturday and is a .298 career hitter.

Two good options, very cheap, no prospects lost etc. We'll see what happens.

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Cubs/Padres line-up

Fukudome in center, Theriot batting 8th. Here are my Pitching Previews

Kerry Wood will throw today, if it goes well, and he's fine afterwards and tomorrow morning, we'll have a closer. Lou also plans on announcing the rotation tomorrow, but I wonder if that is coming later, after tomorrow's game.

Cubs line-up from Gameday

Patterson  2b
Soriano    lf
Lee        1b
Ramirez    3b
Fukudome   cf
Hoffpauir  rf
Soto        c
Theriot    ss
Marquis     p

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Is this Cedeno's Break-out season?

Mike Fontenot and Ronny Cedeno are fighting for a spot on the final roster. Both guys have hit well this Spring, but does it mean anything?

Several blogs have recently cited a 2006 John Dewan article on Spring SLG averages. Here's Tim Dierkes on the subject.

John Dewan came up with this piece of info a few years back:

A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.

John was kind enough to reply to my email asking for clarification on his statement. He told me he'd use a sample size of 35 ABs or more and that "better than normal" relates to SLG primarily.

Let's take a look at some of the younger and/or less established Cubs

Hitter	sSLG	cSLG	dif
Ronny Cedeno	0.588	0.349	0.239
Mike Fontenot	0.511	0.398	0.113
Felix Pie	0.458	0.333	0.125
Ryan Theriot	0.418	0.379	0.039
Geovany Soto	0.302	0.525	-0.223
Matt Murton	0.434	0.455	-0.021

Ronny only has 34 ABs, but close enough. I don't know if this matters or not, but here are some other numbers - ISO (slg - avg) and Bases per Hit (slg / avg). They may suggest Fontenot is doing very well, too.

Hitter	sISO	cISO	dif
Ronny Cedeno	0.264	0.102	0.162
Mike Fontenot	0.244	0.120	0.124
Felix Pie	0.187	0.118	0.069
Ryan Theriot	0.073	0.103	-0.030
Geovany Soto	0.069	0.200	-0.131
Matt Murton	0.076	0.159	-0.083

Hitter	sB/H	cB/H	dif
Ronny Cedeno	1.815	1.413	0.402
Mike Fontenot	1.914	1.432	0.482
Felix Pie	1.690	1.549	0.141
Ryan Theriot	1.212	1.373	-0.162
Geovany Soto	1.296	1.615	-0.319
Matt Murton	1.212	1.537	-0.325

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Padres on Easter Sunday

How appropriate, the Padres play the Cubs today. Maddux and Marquis - you've seen them here before, follow those links if you haven't for their pitching profiles. We'll look at Trevor Hoffman here instead.

In this post you can see that Trevor throws strikes like a mad man. He leads all pitchers covered with a Ball-to-Called-Strike ratio of 1.41:1 and less than 29% of his pitches are taken for a ball - bested only by Rafael Betancourt.

Hoffman throws three pitches - a fastball, a slider (only to righties) and his dreaded change-up. It is nasty, we're talking 12 MPH off his fastball. He works both sides of the rubber. From the catcher's perspective, he's to the left against lefty batters (who, remember, are to the catcher's right). He takes the opposite, more towards the middle of the rubber, against righties.

You can see what I mean here - his release points (in feet)



Here's the spin movement (in inches) - first for all three pitches, all batters



And now, dropping the slider, and splitting it by release point group



As you can see above, the movement doesn't vary by release point group, but the plate location sure does - the change is mostly kept away.



He doesn't seem to miss much with that slider.

He'll get some work against the Cubs today. Just another Spring tune-up in a Hall of Fame career.

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Just One More Thing

Kerry Wood has a chance to cement his role as Cubs closer tomorrow

"This will be a real nice test for him, because he'll pitch back-to-back days and three out of four days, and that's as good a test as you can give anybody," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said.

Lou's confidence appears well placed, as Kerry buzzed through one inning today with just eight pitches.

Tomorrow's game is a Spring rematch of Jason Marquis and Greg Maddux. The Cubs kept coming back in today's 10 inning tie against the White Sox, so we can hope for some momentum, perhaps. Winning, they say, is a habit. Time to get into it.

The Cubs line-up is set for 2008, barring a trade. They way Lou talked today in the pre-game with Santo, it sounds like the only concern is the back-up center fielder. But here's how it has been the last few games, and how it will stay until further notice.

Theriot    SS
Soriano    LF
Lee        1B
Ramirez    3B
Fukudome   RF
DeRosa     2B
Soto        C
Pie        CF

Lou commented on Mike Fontenot's Spring during his conversation with Ron, and mentioned how pleased the staff was with Mike's play at short. Nonetheless, it sounds like Cedeno is the utility guy, and Cintron and Fontenot could provide depth from Iowa.

The rest of the pitching staff poses an interesting question. I suspect Rich Hill's meeting with Hendry was more than "relax, no worries". He could end up in Iowa, along with Sean Marshall. Or Hill and Marshall could both make the team, with Sean as the 2nd lefty with Eyre, and Marquis gets traded to keep space for Hill. Or Marshall goes to Iowa, and Lieber slides to the bullpen, with Hill keeping his spot along with Marquis. Or Mark Prior gets traded back and Angel Guzman is ready, miraculously. Whatever happened to Bobby Brownlie?

This week should be interesting, starting with Lou's announcements, expected by Monday morning. The pitching staff will be known. And it ends with what should be a settled roster headed to Las Vegas. Since the only battle is the utility job, and he sounds ready to hand that to Cedeno, I expect no major news after Thursday.

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