Cubs Announce First Call-Ups

According to mlb.com, the Cubs will have several extra players available tomorrow.

...Micah Hoffpauir, Koyie Hill, Michael Wuertz and Casey McGehee from Triple-A Iowa, and activate Jon Lieber and Angel Guzman from the disabled list.

McGehee is the only surprise, and Kevin Hart is also expected to get the call at some point. The extra right-handed bat off the bench is needed, and McGehee's on the 40-man roster already (Jason Dubois, who has been hitting bombs in AAA, is not), and three extra arms is probably enough for Lou and Larry to keep busy. Hopefully. Felix Pie may still get the call before the end of the month.

Two Dead Arms?

Updated

According to Lou Piniella in the post-game press conference, the decision to push back Carlos Zambrano and his dead arm came Saturday night. Ryan Dempster will get an extra day of rest, as Carlos will follow Jason Marquis against the Astros. Rich Harden will be skipped this time around, altogether, due to what is apparently some fatigue.

---

Looking at Rich Harden's August 29 outing, there are a few fastballs from the beginning of the 1st and 2nd innings that aren't fast at all. Even putting those aside, you can see Harden lost some velocity, as compared to his previous two starts (all at Wrigley). He also failed to do something I've come to expect - dial it back up towards the end of his day.





Here's a look at the numbers - you can sort the table by clicking the headers (unless you're reading this somewhere besides cubsfx.com).

Rich Harden Fastballs

date	inning	max	avg	min
2008-08-19	1	94.7	90.9	88.6
2008-08-19	2	95.6	91.5	86.9
2008-08-19	3	93.7	90.3	87.7
2008-08-19	4	94.6	91.7	89.3
2008-08-19	5	92.4	90.5	89.2
2008-08-19	6	92.7	90.3	88.3
2008-08-19	7	95.9	93.2	88.7
2008-08-24	1	94.7	90.6	87.8
2008-08-24	2	96.1	93.4	89.9
2008-08-24	3	93.8	92.1	89.5
2008-08-24	4	94.5	93.1	90.7
2008-08-24	5	94.5	91.5	89.0
2008-08-24	6	95.7	91.6	87.8
2008-08-24	7	97.4	94.2	91.9
2008-08-29	1	93.7	89.7	84.6
2008-08-29	2	93.1	89.6	83.5
2008-08-29	3	93.6	91.1	86.7
2008-08-29	4	92.2	89.9	86.6
2008-08-29	5	92.4	89.8	87.3

It really does look like Rich Harden lost some zip on the fastball, although he didn't get past the fifth inning in that last start. Hopefully skipping a turn will allow him to get back on track, assuming he's off track at all.

---

Up Next
Carlos Zambrano, meanwhile, is now scheduled to pitch Tuesday so I guess his arm is less dead, and/or his shoulder's health is not suspect, as compared to Harden. After some holiday fare, I'll look at Zambrano's last couple starts to see if the Big Z dead arm impacted his stuff as much as I think it did (I believe he lost a few MPH) and, out of sheer curiosity, check out Dempster's stuff, too.

---

Update
Harden's release points for fastballs, last three starts. There are some unusual ones from the 29th, I'd say.

Rich Harden Set to Get Extra Rest

Not only is Carlos Zambrano getting pushed back, so is Rich Harden.

It's also possible Rich Harden won't pitch until Saturday in Cincy, as the Cubs try to protect arms.

I'm OK with the rest, but, unfortunately, it seems more reactive than proactive in both cases.

Zambrano Pushed Back

Carlos Zambrano's dead arm is getting a couple extra days off. Big Z will probably pitch Wednesday against the Astros. Sean Marshall gets the Sunday start in his place.

Matt Stairs in Wrigley - Lilly vs. Myers

Back in 2001, the Cubs had a veteran lefty make a big contribution. Playing first and some outfield, Matt Stairs was tied for 2nd on the team with 17 home runs. Just a hair behind some guy named Sammy Sosa. The margin was just 47 home runs.

This morning, the trade between the Phillies and Blue Jays was finalized, and Matt Stairs is supposed to be in town and available to play for the Phils.

Don't be surprised to see him off the bench in the late (post-Lilly) innings. I have a hard time imagining Stairs in the field at the moment. He has played a little bit in both left and right for the Jays this season, so you never know. Maybe he gets to start against Zambrano on Sunday.

---

Ted Lilly gets the ball for the Cubs today. He's thrown well lately, actually lowering his ERA a half run in the last month. With eight straight starts of at least six innings, he's given the Cubs arguably the best #4 guy in the league. I could look that up, but I'll just declare it and move on.

Lilly's curveball continues to get lost occasionally. Last time out, he barely used it, until the 7th inning, his last of the game

Ted Lilly Curveballs by Inning 8/25/08

I   #
1   0
2   2
3   0
4   1
5   0
6   1
7   6

In the 7th, Ted threw two change-ups (~80mph) and a first pitch slider (cutter) to Freddy Sanchez that finished the inning. The other dozen from that inning were split evenly between the heater and yakker. Luis Rivas got three hammers, including two in a row.

Why the sudden use of the curveball? Tired?



Fastball speed was fine. As usual, Ted started the last inning a little slow and picked up speed. Slider command? No, after the first and second innings, he didn't miss the zone with more than one slider in any inning.

In the 6th, Lilly was moving his change-up around, but threw four balls out of seven pitches with it. It generally isn't meant to be a strike, but, for whatever reason, he basically dropped it, along with the slider, and went Fastball/Curveball for the final inning. Maybe he suddenly felt the curve working in his warm-ups? Who knows.

Today, Lilly's not the only guy with a good curveball on the hill.

---

Brett Myers has had an interesting season. Interesting enough to have part of it in AAA. Meyers has an impressive curveball and a sinking change-up (splitter?) to complement a hard, sweeping slider and a low 90's fastball.

Before the demotion, Meyers only had one or two good games after an solid appearance against the Cubs in April. Since returning to the majors on July 23, he's put up a 1.66 ERA in nearly 50 innings of work. He's allowed only two home runs while striking out 38 and walking just 13.

Still, Brett's three best starts in that time came against the Nationals and Pirates, and two more were against the Dodgers. The Cardinals and the Mets fared the best against the right-hander, although the Mets were his first opponent after his recall.

We'll see how Meyers handles the league's best offense, or how long he can last before turning over to the soft underbelly that is the Phillies bullpen. Except for Brad Lidge, who will probably get in the game today, no matter what, the Cubs are expected to continue feasting on Philadelphia relievers.

Lidge f/x

Fastball, Slider. Some cutters and two-seamers, mixed in with the four-seamer, all labeled FA.

cfx	#	SwRt	WhiffRate	B:CS	IZRate	PaintRate	ChaseRate	WatchRate
FA	634	0.383	0.148	2.9	0.377	0.120	0.230	0.364
SL	730	0.497	0.510	1.7	0.440	0.099	0.416	0.399

		Pitch Speed (mph)			Spin Movement (in.)		Spin Directon/Rate
cfx	#	max	avg	min	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
FA	634	100	96	90	-4.5	9.5	204.1	1468.5
SL	730	91	86	80	0.4	1.4	175.2	359.5

The slider is brutal, that whiff rate tells you he's one of the best. He throws it for more strikes than the fastball (sound familiar?) but, when you throw that hard, and you have some movement (more than indicated in the charts below), you do alright.





He can have command issues, so he can be beat some nights, although he is 31 for 31 in save opportunities this year. He'll throw almost all sliders some nights, which should also sound familiar.

Here are three shots of lidge. First two are four-seam fastballs, last one looks like a slider to me.

Cubs to Phace Phillies

Cole Hamels against Ryan Dempster tonight at Wrigley Field. I've looked at Hamels here before, but now I've updated him - all pitches have identified. I have not been able to reliably ID cutter, so I'll leave them in the with rest of the fastballs (FA). Otherwise, he's change-up (CH) and curveball (CU).

	Pitch Speed (mph)			Spin Movement (in.)		Spin Directon/Rate
cfx	max	avg	min	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	87	80	71	6.1	7.6	142.0	1157.6
CU	84	76	67	-1.5	-3.4	165.8	496.5
FA	97	91	82	1.7	11.6	171.9	1555.4

The change is his nastiest pitch. Thrown for lots of strikes, and very tough to pick-up. Check out these flight paths to see why. Click to enlarge



Next up, swings and such. SwRt is swing rate, whiff rate is whiffs divided by swings, IZRate is pitches in the batter's strike zone, paint rate is off the plate but about 1 ball width max, ChaseRate is pitches swung at when out of the hitter's zone, and watch rate is takes on pitches in the zone.

cfx	#	SwRt	WhiffRate	B:CS	IZRate	PaintRate	ChaseRate	WatchRate
CH	1157	0.592	0.368	1.8	0.535	0.112	0.435	0.271
CU	484	0.351	0.229	2.4	0.405	0.081	0.198	0.424
FA	1836	0.497	0.126	1.7	0.448	0.141	0.371	0.348

That's impressive control, especially when you consider the movement on the change-up. Here's a spin movement graph (deviation from the path of a spin-less ball).



That's about five inches of lateral movement, plus a ball or so of drop, compared to his average fastball. Cole Hamels will be tough to hit, as usual.

His approach to hitters by count - click to sort:

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	CU LHH	FA LHH	RHH	CH RHH	CU RHH	FA RHH
944	0	0	213	0.1972	0.2394	0.5634	731	0.3174	0.1601	0.5226
460	0	1	94	0.2340	0.2340	0.5319	366	0.2650	0.1366	0.5984
279	0	2	70	0.1714	0.2857	0.5429	209	0.2488	0.1866	0.5646
356	1	0	85	0.3412	0.0471	0.6118	271	0.4096	0.0590	0.5314
354	1	1	86	0.2674	0.1744	0.5581	268	0.3396	0.1716	0.4888
374	1	2	93	0.2903	0.2473	0.4624	281	0.3772	0.1281	0.4947
101	2	0	17	0.4706	0.0588	0.4706	84	0.4405	0.0238	0.5357
155	2	1	36	0.3611	0.0556	0.5833	119	0.3361	0.0504	0.6134
240	2	2	60	0.3500	0.0833	0.5667	180	0.5056	0.1333	0.3611
29	3	0	4	0.2500	0.0000	0.7500	25	0.2800	0.0000	0.7200
62	3	1	9	0.4444	0.0000	0.5556	53	0.4528	0.0377	0.5094
123	3	2	27	0.6296	0.0000	0.3704	96	0.5208	0.0313	0.4479

Zach Duke Release Points - Follow-Up

Earlier this week, I checked up on Zach Duke's release points, based on news of his modified wind-up. Using PITCHf/x data from two games in Milwaukee, I found he had moved over on the rubber and maybe altered his arm angle. Now that he has a before and after home game, the latter against the Cubs, there's another opportunity to compare games from the same park. Keep in mind, I've adjusted the release points to 55 ft. from home plate, so they'll vary from the raw data available from mlb.com, which is 50ft.

The big difference in Milwaukee was Duke's spot on the rubber, but it's the same for the two Pittsburgh starts. That makes a slight change in release point pretty clear.

Comparing the August 16 and August 27 starts, I found a group of pitches that, between release point and spin movement, really stood out. After some sorting, I've put the following charts together. "x" and "y" are just references to the pitches from 8/16 that I split out. All of 8/27 are together as a single group.





Another game is needed to track this (perhaps I'll start Bucs f/x), but his release points are distributed the same, but crooked, to use the vernacular. The most extreme examples of the lowered arm slot from 8/16 also show-up, essentially, as the only pitches that differ in terms of spin movement. He's made some adjustments, and the change in the wind-up is helping him keep his form.

2008 Mesa Solar Sox - AFL Rosters Announced

Update - See the latest rosters here for all Winter Cubs here

Baseball America has the goods on the 2008 Arizona Fall League. Ryne Sandberg will be a coach for Mesa, joining the Cubs' allotment of six players. The Solar Sox also get players from Detroit, Atlanta, Florida and Philadelphia.

From the Cubs' organization:

Justin Berg
Rocky Roquet
Donald Veal
Darwin Barney
Nate Spears
Tyler Colvin

Barney is the only player below AA, while Berg the only above AAA, amongst the Cubs players. The rest are with Tennessee right now.

What's Up, Zach?

We have seen a lot of Zach Duke, and I've posted on him before (here). But, what's new with Mr. Duke?

Duke felt encouraged by his performance Friday night, when he used a glove-over-his-head windup designed to loosen his delivery for the first time in a game.

"We're definitely going in the right direction," he said. "The ball had life out of my hand. It's comforting to know that when you're trying stuff to get better that it works. It's a weight off the mind."

Duke is due to start again Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park.

Indeed he is. After two rough nights for the Buccos bullpen, Duke will need to pull his weight against a Cubs team that has seemingly scored at will over two games.

As far as PITCHf/x is concerned, we don't exactly get the wind-up positioning. But we can look to see if his release point has changed.

The Friday night start referred to above was in Milwaukee, on August 22. Duke also faced the Brewers in Miller Park on July 6, so there is a decent chance to compare outings.



y0=55ft.

OK, that's interesting.

There are at least three possible explanations - in no particular order, not mutually exclusive ...

1. System change


2. Change in Duke's release point


3. Change in Duke's rubber location

T.J. Beam and Sean Burnett also appeared in both games for the Pirates (no Brewer pitcher shows up in both). There is a little change in release points for Beam and Burnett, but nothing like Duke's.



Splitting Duke's graph by LHH and RHH and by Fastball/Curveball (skipping sliders and change-ups) ....









Same spread within each game. So, it isn't one pitch, or hitter type, that's skewing his approach. Since his release point has slid in towards his glove side, without a corresponding increase in release height (see the reverse for Barry Zito here and here), he has moved over on the rubber, without any substantial change (if at all) in arm angle.

To double-check his arm slot, here's spin movement (also see Zito here and here), which is a way to read arm angle.



I think it's inconsistent, but he is looking a little more overhand last time out. It's hard to draw the axis since the curveball falls on both sides, but that should correspond with the blur seen in release point.

After Wednesday's game, I'll re-check Duke's release point (arm angle and rubber spot) against his last home start, and bounce spin movement off against release point variance for all four games.

Marmol by Month

If you watch Carlos Marmol enough, you realize the importance of his fastball. While his slurve gets the attention, the heater is his key. When Marmol struggles, he actually finds it easier to throw the slurve for a strike, not the fastball. When Marmol can throw the fastball for strikes, he speeds up his opponent's bat and makes the slurve that much more effective.

I've been saying that for a while now. But I've only validated some of those assertions. Questions I have raised:

1. Does Carlos Marmol throw less fastballs when he's pitching poorly?


2. Does fastball accuracy drop more than slurve accuracy when pitching poorly?


3. When the fastball is thrown for strikes, does he get more whiffs on the slurves?

---

Let's look at some trends, keeping in mind cause-and-effect are not being addressed.

Month     ERA   K  BB
Apr/Mar  1.56  23   5
May      1.93  31   7
June     7.36  12   9
July     3.97  13  10
August   0.71  14   4

I've mentioned concerns about his high walk rate, even in his post-ASG resurgence, but I see that concern can be put aside at the moment.

---

So, there's a pretty clear picture of Marmol's roller coaster ride. How about his pitch mix?

Month     FB   SL   FB:SL
Apr/Mar  147  132  1.11:1
May      141  132  1.07:1
June      93  137  0.68:1
July     101  149  0.68:1
August   115   73  1.58:1

That's pretty much the same roller coaster. So, question #1 is a Yes.

---

Let's look at pitch accuracy a few ways.

B:CS  - called pitches
B:S   - all swings are assumed strikes
ISZ   - in zone rate
SwRt  - swing rate

I'm mostly intrigued by swing rates - hitters can probably tell me a lot of what I need to know.

month	year	cfx	B:CS	B:S	ISZ%	SwRt
Mar/Apr	2008	FA	2.0	0.6	0.456	0.463
May	2008	FA	2.5	0.6	0.397	0.461
June	2008	FA	1.8	0.9	0.387	0.258
July	2008	FA	2.9	0.8	0.455	0.406
August	2008	FA	1.4	0.5	0.513	0.435

month	year	cfx	B:CS	B:S	ISZ%	SwRt
Mar/Apr	2008	SL	1.4	0.6	0.477	0.326
May	2008	SL	1.1	0.7	0.417	0.242
June	2008	SL	1.4	0.7	0.438	0.307
July	2008	SL	1.6	0.6	0.456	0.383
August	2008	SL	1.6	0.6	0.452	0.384

Is it just me, or did he struggle a bit with the slurve in May? In any case, it looks like the fastball swing rate follows "the trend" while the slurve also doesn't.





I'll say Yes to #2, his fastball can't find the zone when his slurve still can, especially so when Carlos is performance poorly.

---

Last, but not least, does an improved (accurate) fastball help get more misses on the slurve?

 FA ISZ%   SL Whiff Rate
  0.456     0.256
  0.397     0.344
  0.387     0.333
  0.455     0.404
  0.513     0.143

Not so much - perhaps. I'll say No to #3.

---

This is rather casual, unsophisticated analysis. Since there's enough validation of my observations, it merits further research. Can we start to find trends in Swing Rate that correspond to impending changes in more traditional performance metrics?

Same thing for pitch selection - if a pitcher (or his catcher/pitching coach) loses "confidence" in a certain pitch, or gains confidence in another, does it indicate a potential shift in his performance?

If someone could recommend a measure of individual game quality - for relievers - I'd be most grateful.

Lieber in the Fall?

Looks like Jon Lieber will be back with the Cubs at some point, or so this news out of Peoria seems to indicate.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Jon Lieber is scheduled to make two rehab starts with the Peoria Chiefs this week, including Thursday night’s regular-season home finale at O’Brien Field.

Man, if I had only joined that low-A head-to-head league, Lieber would be a must start this week.

On the Road Again - Cubs Visit Pittsburgh

The first team to reach 80 wins in 2008 is the Chicago Cubs. No time to let up. The Cubs take on the Pirates, starting Monday night. Ted Lilly will face Jeff Karstens. Karstens baffled the Cubs and the Diamondbacks (perfect into the 8th), but has been less effective in his last two starts.

Heading into his fifth start for the Pirates, Karstens is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA. But, look a little closer. In 28 innings, he has an 11:8 K:BB ratio, which is not healthy. He's also given up four home runs.

As far as PITCHf/x goes, I'll leave you with just his scatter plots for tonight.







The fastball tops out around 93, but sits under 90. The curve is slow, usually around 75, and as little as 67. Karsten's change is usually close to 10 mph under the fastball, and the slider averages just over 81.

Karsten's curveball is thrown for a lot of strikes, while the change-up is effective out of the zone. His slider is similar to the curve in terms of throwing strikes and missing bats. All this good off-speed and breaking stuff is a must, since his fastball isn't overwhelming.

Rich Harden - Two Pitch Pitcher

Last time Rich Harden threw a slider was in 2007. Or, at least in a PITCHf/x game. It is pretty well known, in 2008, that he's left sliders and splitters behind, and throws a fastball and a change-up. The change-up is extra tough, since he can throw it a few ways with a single grip (circle). With no distinguishable difference from his fastball's arm speed, and his ability to dial the fastball up-and-down the speedometer, he can be nearly impossible to hit. He's around the plate, so it does happen (more than his share of home runs), but not often.

The following numbers are for all of Rich Harden's games that are available with PITCHf/x data. They do not include his August 24 start. Tables are sortable, images can be clicked to enlarge.

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	322	362	85.7	-1.0	4.6	191	608	3.0	10.09	57.75	46.84	43.50	17.85	0.7	0.571	1.5
FA	583	617	92.9	-3.6	11.4	197	1,583	2.3	11.08	46.92	19.89	30.09	24.19	0.4	0.443	0.3
SL	3	5	85.0	3.9	0.8	125	511		0.00	37.50	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.0	0.500
	908	984	90.3	-2.6	8.9	195	1,226	2.5	10.68	50.79	31.01	34.92	21.90	0.5	0.486	0.5

The whiff rates are sky high for both of his pitches - there are not enough sliders to comment on here. The B:CS ratio is a above league (2.2 last I checked). The change-up isn't bad considering the movement and intent, but the fastball is on the high side.

The most important image in the next series is probably the last, or the last two.













The flight paths paint a scary picture for hitters.

Here are Harden's Out of Zone/In Strike Zone numbers.

#	iT	iSw	iWh	oT	oSw	oW
1892	288	668	157	641	293	141

izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
0.506	0.699	0.314	0.508	0.235	0.481	0.310

Breaking that down by month, starting with May 2008.

May	y	izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
May	2008	0.537	0.695	0.266	0.496	0.230	0.551	0.310
Jun	2008	0.474	0.713	0.345	0.519	0.215	0.538	0.328
Jul	2008	0.487	0.680	0.341	0.506	0.241	0.465	0.318
Aug	2008	0.513	0.706	0.316	0.516	0.198	0.372	0.250

Now by pitch

cfx	#	iT	iSw	iWh	oT	oSw	oW
CH	684	84	247	85	204	148	100
FA	1200	203	419	72	433	144	40

cfx	#	izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
CH	684	0.485	0.746	0.420	0.578	0.344	0.676	0.468
FA	1200	0.519	0.674	0.250	0.470	0.172	0.278	0.199

And, starting in May, by pitch by month

month	year	cfx	izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
May	2008	CH	0.514	0.716	0.329	0.528	0.377	0.826	0.513
Jun	2008	CH	0.447	0.763	0.489	0.612	0.310	0.739	0.500
Jul	2008	CH	0.470	0.757	0.457	0.598	0.359	0.642	0.473
Aug	2008	CH	0.455	0.775	0.354	0.545	0.258	0.529	0.354

month	year	cfx	izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
May	2008	FA	0.549	0.683	0.228	0.478	0.147	0.308	0.182
Jun	2008	FA	0.491	0.684	0.246	0.461	0.154	0.265	0.184
Jul	2008	FA	0.497	0.634	0.264	0.448	0.156	0.261	0.187
Aug	2008	FA	0.539	0.680	0.295	0.503	0.171	0.269	0.198

That's a lot of numbers. He looks consistent with the fastball, especially when you consider the small-ish sample size for August. The change-up seems to be getting less misses out of the zone, but, you're dealing with small numbers at that point, as seen in this next table.

month	year	cfx	oSw	oW
May	2008	CH	23	19
Jun	2008	CH	46	34
Jul	2008	CH	53	34
Aug	2008	CH	17	9

The Cubs acquired Harden in early July, so, if you squint and think of the May/June as AL and July/August as NL, you could make the claim that NL hitters chase change-ups less than AL hitters. Not saying that I'm making that claim, but you can.

Just One More Thing

To clarify those now retired sliders, here's a comparison of the change-ups and sliders from 7/7/2007 - the only game where the slider appears.

---

Two Front Teeth

A rotation with bite in the playoffs needs a solid one-two punch at the front. So says conventional wisdom. Last night, in the Boston Herald, Tony Massarotti mentioned the impressive win totals for the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks top two starters. While wins aren't a useful gauge of a pitcher's actual quality, it's still fun to look at how different teams stack up.

The following totals are nothing but the combined wins for each teams' leaders (excluding relievers). In some cases a pitcher has moved to another team, but his wins don't tag along.

33 Diamondbacks
31 Blue Jays
29 Yankees
28 Cubs
27 Red Sox
   Angels
26 Reds
25 Indians
24 Rays
   White Sox
   Mets
   Cardinals
22 Tigers
   Phillies
   Braves
   Dodgers
   Giants
21 Twins
   Brewers
   Rockies
20 Astros
19 Royals
   Rangers
   Marlins
18 Orioles
   A's
15 Nationals
   Padres
14 Pirates
13 Mariners

Here's the same list, but in order of each division's standings, and with the leading pitchers (and # of wins)

Rays
24 Sonnanstine (13) Shields (11)
Red Sox
27 Matsuzaka (15) Lester (12)
Yankees
29 Mussina (16) Pettitte (13)
Blue Jays
31 Burnett (16) Halladay (15)
Orioles
18 Guthrie (10) Olson/Cabrera (8)
Twins
21 Perkins (11) Hernandez/Slowey (10)
White Sox
24 Floyd (13) Buehrle (11)
Tigers
22 Galarraga (12) Verlander (10)
Indians
25 Lee (18) Byrd (7)
Royals
19 Meche (10) Greinke (9)
Angels
27 Saunders (14) Santana (13)
Rangers
19 Padilla (12) Millwood (7)
A's
18 Duchscherer (10) Eveland (8)
Mariners
13 Hernandez (7) Bedard (6)
Mets
24 Santana (12) Pelfrey (12)
Phillies
22 Kendrick/Moyer/Hamels (11)
Marlins
19 Nolasco (12) Hendrickson(7)
Braves
22 Jurrjens (11) Hudson (11)
Nationals
15 Redding (8) Lannan (7)
Cubs
28 Dempster (15) Zambrano (13)
Brewers
21 Sheets (11) Parra (10)
Cardinals
24 Lohse (13) Looper/Wellemeyer (11)
Astros
20 Oswalt (11) Moehler (9)
Pirates
14 Maholm (8) Gorzelanny (6)
Reds
26 Volquez (15) Arroyo (11)
Diamondbacks
33 Webb (19) Haren (14)
Dodgers
22 Billingsley (12) Lowe (10)
Rockies
21 Cook (15) de la Rosa (6)
Giants
22 Lincecum (14) Cain/Sanchez/Zito (8)
Padres
15 Peavy (9) Maddux/Wolf (6)

The Pettitte/Mussina pairing takes me back to another time .... Aaron Cook and Cliff Lee are the NL and AL "I work alone" men, respectively. Felix Hernandez owns the lowest win total of any "leader" with seven (not enough to make the Top 2 on 22 teams). Jake Peavy's top supporter (pick one - Maddux or Wolf - they're both gone) would join Jorge de la Rosa, Tom Gorzelanny and Erik Bedard with the least wins of any pitcher on the list, with six.

Source: Baseball Reference

Cubs vs. Nats - Bergmann f/x

Rich Harden and Jason Bergmann in the rubber match at 1:20 CT. I haven't completed Bergmann's pitch IDs, so there is some noise in the data and uncertainty around the cutter. It may be a slider, it may be some of both.





Bergmann's fastball sits around 89-91, but he'll touch 94 occasionally.

35 Brewers?

Continuing the September call-up thread, MLB.com has a long list of potential call-ups for Milwaukee. A few names seem to be sure things.

c
Vinny Rottino

if
Russell Branyan (dl)
Joe Dillon
Alcides Escobar
Hernan Iribarren
Brad Nelson

of
Tony Gwynn, Jr.

p
Mitch Stetter
Mark DiFelice
Tim Dillard

Yovani Gallardo is a big question mark, and there's some mystery meat on the menu.

[Brewer's Ass't GM Gord] Ash said there would be at least one surprise, a la [Mel] Stocker, a Minor League veteran who was promoted all the way from Double-A Huntsville last September mostly to provide speed off the bench.

"I'll leave it to you to figure out who that will be," Ash teased.

You scamp! Luckily, Adam McCalvy speculates for us. It seems the Brewers could try and chase down the Cubs while loaded down with as many as 37 players. Insert your own Prince Fielder and/or C.C. Sabathia punch-line here.

Cubs Send Out Playoff Invoices

Got my email today, a bill for the playoff tickets. I hopefully won't have to get any credits against next year's tickets this time around. I'm not sure what we're getting, but I should, after I split it with my group, see at least one post-season game this year.

I don't know when tickets will go on sale to the public, but my friends at Ticket Solutions might be a good source for Cubs regular season and playoff tickets.

It was nice to get the bill today, a pleasant distraction from the beating the Cubs took from none other than Willie Harris and the Nats. I'll be attending tomorrow's game, hopefully it won't be so ugly.

September Call-Ups, Pawelek Sent Home, Guzman f/x

Updated Aug 31 - first call-ups announced

---

According to the Daily Herald, 2005 #1 pick Mark Pawelek didn't get his passport in time for a trip to Canada, so the Boise Hawks have sent him home for the season. This is probably a good time for him to do some shopping, buy some ties and shoes, and get ready for some job interviews.

It was reported a week or so ago, in various places, that Lou Piniella was only expecting about 5 or 6 call-ups on September 1. Anyone on the 40-man roster is eligible, but the team doesn't feel the need to flood the bench. In the same article, the Herald says the Cubs are expected to bring up catcher Koyie Hill, pitchers Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz and Angel Guzman, along with Felix Pie and Micah Hoffpauir. With the exception of Guzman, all good choices. Let Guzman go down to Arizona and work-out. I'm not sure he's really ready for major league hitters.

Angel did make a 12 appearances as a Cub in 2007, including three starts. PITCHf/x data is available from two appearances in May, one in Petco Park, one in Dodger Stadium. By mid-June, he was on the DL and headed for Tommy John surgery.

Guzman throws, based on very limited data, a curveball, slider, as many as three fastballs (2 seam, 4 seam, cut) and a change-up. He throws from a pretty low arm slot, and probably can do some serious damage with the sinking two-seamer.







Angel's a big guy, 6'3", and will turn 27 this Winter. Since returning to active duty, he's played at three levels, starting with High A Daytona. He started two games while in Florida, totaling just five innings. Guzman moved up to AA, making one three-inning start for Tennessee, before moving to the I-Cubs and doing the same. 11 innings aren't a lot of work, but he'll get some more work in between now and September 1.

His numbers in the minors have been impressive, but the sample size is too small to judge from. But, for what it's worth....

IP 11
K  11
BB  2
ER  2
HR  0

With more ground-outs that fly-outs, it does appear that Angel is on his way back. We'll see what we get if and when he's called up. Color me skeptical, for now.

Mid-Game Thoughts on Big Z

Carlos Zambrano is looking pretty good after six innings, with just four hits and one run (on a home run), but three walks. He's also struck out four and hit a solo homer.

I watched Z's first two frames over lunch, and, while a little wild, again, his arm slot looks fine. The other folks watching the game seemed to agree, for whatever that's worth.

Lilly's Strong Outing Not Enough

Bronson Arroyo slowly worked seven innings to beat the Cubs 2-1. Ted Lilly had a no-hitter until Ryan Hanigan led off the 6th with a double. Hanigan came in to score and Jolbert Cabrera drove home Edwin Encarnacion in the 7th for the difference maker. Again, Lilly was the victim of a lead-off double.

Other than outstanding defense by Mark DeRosa, Ted Lilly was the only thing keeping the Cubs in the game. If you've been here before, you know I'm mildly (overly) interested in Lilly's curveball usage. For a few games, they disappeared after Geovany Soto got the Bulldog to back off the pitch. Tonight, it returned and was, for the most part, effective.

Ted Lilly - Pitch Selection by Start



Hanigan's double came on a curveball just in the bottom of the zone, but in the middle, but Lilly stuck with the pitch to the end. Almost

Ted Lilly - Pitch Selection by Inning 8/20/2008

inning	pitches	FA	CH	CU	SL
1	8	5	1	1	1
2	11	2	5	2	2
3	16	9	2	3	2
4	19	12	0	4	3
5	10	2	4	2	2
6	26	18	2	6	0
7	10	6	2	0	2

It impresses me that Lilly can go with or without certain pitches from game to game - not to mention against lefties and righties - but he never relies on a lot of fastballs.

Will Lilly Throw Any Curves Tonight?

Update: Yes, 3rd hitter, 2nd pitch was a nice yellow hammer

Last time out, Ted Lilly threw just one curveball. One. Since Geovany Soto told him to back off the pitch and use his other (better?) stuff, Ted's really cut back. We'll see what he does tonight.

Basically the same line-ups as Tuesday night, but the Reds swapped out Patterson and Bako for Jolbert Cabrera and Ryan Hannigan. Bronson Arroyo takes the bump for the Reds. I looked at Bronson way back here when I was playing with k-means clusters. Friday is the 1 yr. Anniversary of the first post on this blog, and the pitch id's have become much better. I actually started my PITCHf/x adventure 1 year ago today. I rarely use k-means clusters anymore, in case you were wondering. Once the off-season hits, I'll dedicate some coding time to my emerging algorithm.

Seats Down the Stretch

As the season starts winding up, and the stretch run heats up, tickets are getting tough to come by. Try Ticket Solutions for any baseball game, including Cubs home and away games

Harden v. Cueto at Wrigley - Line-ups Posted

Thanks to Gameday (which goes without saying, as this site doesn't exist without Gameday and the efforts of MLBAM and Sportvision)

Dickerson lf
Keppinger ss
Bruce rf
Phillips 2b
Votto 1b
Encarnacion 3b
Korey cf
Bako c
Cueto p

Soriano lf
Theriot ss
Lee 1b
Ramirez 3b
Edmonds cf
Soto c
Fukudome rf
DeRosa 2b
Harden p

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are players to watch. Pitcher Johnny Cueto is no slouch, either. I took a look at Cueto last month, see the whole thing here.

Here's a little bit of PFX derived data on Bruce and Votto.

first	last	SZ Top (ft)	SZ Bot	#	iT	iSw	iWh	oT	oSw	oW
Jay	Bruce	3.55	1.71	1096	130	404	72	376	184	84
Joey	Votto	3.64	1.71	1835	249	678	101	677	230	97

first	last	izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
Jay	Bruce	0.488	0.757	0.329	0.537	0.178	0.457	0.265
Joey	Votto	0.505	0.731	0.254	0.495	0.149	0.422	0.218

Votto sees a few more strikes, but Bruce swings and misses more often, but nothing extreme in either case.

Updated
League #'s

izR	iSwR	oSwR	SwR	iWhR	oWhR	WhR
0.527	0.627	0.269	0.458	0.129	0.344	0.189

Jeff Samardzija - Release Points and More

Jeff Samardzija has been a huge boost to the Cubs bullpen. Enough to bump struggling veteran Bob Howry out of his set-up role. Last time I looked, Jeff had a pretty distinct difference in his effectiveness and release points between his fastball(s) and his other stuff. Both trends continue.

Looking game-by-game, Samardzija's fastballs come from a point between 2 and 4 inches from the rest of his pitches. There is variability in both groups, but it is pretty clear cut. As a matter of fact, the overlaps you see below are almost exclusively park-to-park.

Jeff Samardzija Release Points (feet)
catcher's perspective; click to enlarge



The inset shows the aggregate positions, which should reinforce what is pretty apparent. Keep in mind , this is ball position at y=55ft. That's backed up from what Gameday shows as a default, and tends to iron out differences that are flight path, not release point. Still, Samardzija's got something unusual going on.

Jeff Samardzija Release Point Difference - Fastball vs. Other (inches)

date	home	#	diff (in)
2008-07-25	chn	30	3.08
2008-07-27	chn	25	2.97
2008-07-29	mil	17	2.87
2008-08-01	chn	23	1.92
2008-08-03	chn	33	2.71
2008-08-06	chn	13	3.28
2008-08-08	chn	32	2.70
2008-08-10	chn	8	1.56
2008-08-13	atl	29	1.68
2008-08-16	flo	16	3.56
2008-08-17	flo	4	2.08

Jeff Samardzija Release Point Difference - Fastball vs. Slider (inches)

date	home	#	diff (in)
2008-07-25	chn	27	3.10
2008-07-27	chn	21	2.62
2008-08-01	chn	18	1.89
2008-08-03	chn	24	3.06
2008-08-06	chn	10	4.23
2008-08-08	chn	25	2.01
2008-08-13	atl	21	2.12
2008-08-16	flo	13	3.62

Jeff's release can also be seen in these flight paths.

Jeff Samardzija Flight Paths
click to enlarge



In terms of pitch effectiveness, things have changed a little in the last two weeks.

Here are his numbers, updated through August 17.

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
CH	17	14	85.7	-6.3	5.4	229	1,024	4.3	3.23	48.39	40.00	33.33	18.18	0.0	0.000	2.0
FA	69	80	95.6	-9.1	7.0	232	1,574	1.6	14.09	40.94	8.20	27.27	34.41	0.0	0.440	0.5
FS	8	7	85.8	-6.8	2.3	252	882	5.0	0.00	60.00	55.56	50.00	20.00	0.0	0.000
SL	3	28	83.0	-0.9	1.9	203	266	2.0	3.23	22.58	42.86	12.50	62.50	0.0	0.000
	97	129	91.9	-7.4	5.8	229	1,273	1.9	10.18	40.71	20.65	28.23	36.00	0.0	0.314	1.0

Combining the "other" pitches.

cfx	L	R	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm	B:CS	corner%	Sw%	Whiff%	SwOZ%	TaIZ%	HR%	NKS	G:AO
	28	49	84.6					2.8	2.60	40.26	45.16	29.79	40.63	0.0	0.000	4.0
FA	69	80	95.6	-9.1	7.0	232	1,574	1.6	14.09	40.94	8.20	27.27	34.41	0.0	0.440	0.5

What's changed since last time? In two weeks, given the small sample, I'm not surprised to find some changes.

The B:CS ratio for the "other" pitches improved from 4.0:1 to 2.8:1. Fastballs went the other way, slightly, from 1.2:1 to 1.6:1. He's hitting the black less with the fastball, no change with the breaking stuff.

His whiff rates have started to level out, with the fastball improving substantially - from less than a 3% whiff rate to over 8%. The whiff rate for the breaking stuff is still gaudy, just less obscene (overall).

Hitters still can't hit him.

It is good to see the continued success, and the first hint of improved control, with the off-speed pitches. Also important is the increase in missed bats with the fastball. Those things all work nicely together, don't they?