NLDS Game 1 - Cubs Face Derek Lowe

Derek Lowe is not a stranger to most baseball fans. From his days as the Red Sox closer, to being a 20 game winner in his first full season in the rotation, the Dodger's sinker throwing righty will be the Cubs first postseason test in 2008.

While Lowe hasn't shown the same dominance he had in that great season in 2002 (21-8, 2.58 ERA, 0.97 WHP), he's been a solid starter every year, posting at least 182 innings and 32 starts. This season, he's gotten better and better, finishing September with a 30.1 innings, 19 K's, just six walks and no home runs. Lowe's ERA for the month was just 0.59, allowing only two earned runs in five starts.

Lowe's bread-and-butter is a sinking two-seam fastball. He doesn't throw it exceptionally hard, but it sinks and sinks, as does his change-up. Throw in a pretty good slider, and you have a three-pitch guy who can front a rotation.

Before moving on to the details of his stuff, what he throws overall is, perhaps, most important. In 2008, Derek Lowe has started using more sliders than last year. As 2008 has progressed, Lowe's been throwing less change-ups. Click the image to enlarge.



Lowe's change-up (a circle change, based on photos you can find on Google) comes out of his hand around 85-87 mph, and only moves about three inches down and in, relative to his sinker. The sinker sits around 90, maxing at 94.1 (going back to 2007, over 5000 total pitches). It's nothing more than a two-seam fastball, but the action is down and away from righties. So is the change's action, but more down and less away. The slider is a touch faster than the change, and is a pretty typical looking slide piece.

This first graph (click to enlarge) shows the average difference in movement from the actual pitches thrown to the same pitches without spin. The flight paths below are more helpful. Together, they give you an idea of what type of stuff Lowe has, and how it moves.



A 0 value on the vertical axis means the ball dropped as much as you'd predict by gravity alone. Most fastballs "rise" relative to gravity (but do still drop a little in reality), by as much as 12-15 inches. To a hitter's eye, Lowe's heat is sinking like a stone.



Pitch effectiveness - click the table headers to sort ....

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	516	439	77	0.5504	0.2676	5.8	0.1647	0.0950	0.5058	0.2235
F2	3151	1232	1919	0.4011	0.1290	1.7	0.3891	0.1260	0.2442	0.3524
SL	1383	747	636	0.4765	0.3338	1.8	0.2993	0.1236	0.3922	0.3261
	5050	2418	2632	0.4370	0.2080	1.9	0.3416	0.1222	0.3212	0.3397

That's pretty good stuff. Lots of strikes, except for the change. Lowe tends to keep that out of the zone, and almost only uses it against left-handed hitters. And he keeps it away from them. Actually, most of his pitches stay away from the strike zone, thanks, for the most part, to the sinking action.

Here's what Lowe throws on each count

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	F2 LHH	SL LHH	RHH	CH RHH	F2 RHH	SL RHH
1379	0	0	667	0.1334	0.5637	0.3028	712	0.0197	0.8062	0.1742
658	0	1	326	0.2791	0.4417	0.2791	332	0.0512	0.6898	0.2590
261	0	2	136	0.3971	0.3235	0.2794	125	0.048	0.4080	0.5440
563	1	0	254	0.0945	0.5512	0.3543	309	0.0097	0.8544	0.1359
544	1	1	270	0.1926	0.3963	0.4111	274	0.0438	0.6898	0.2664
402	1	2	192	0.3906	0.3594	0.2500	210	0.0381	0.5143	0.4476
195	2	0	89	0.0449	0.7191	0.2360	106	0.0283	0.8113	0.1604
305	2	1	144	0.1042	0.5139	0.3819	161	0.0186	0.8137	0.1677
363	2	2	160	0.1313	0.6250	0.2438	203	0.0345	0.6650	0.3005
46	3	0	21	0.0476	0.9048	0.0476	25	0.0400	0.9600	0.000
113	3	1	56	0.0179	0.8393	0.1429	57	0.000	0.8772	0.1228
221	3	2	103	0.1165	0.4660	0.4175	118	0.0254	0.6610	0.3136

Game 1 will be a good battle. I'll have more on the Cubs 11 playoff pitchers before, during, and after the game.

Guzman to Start for Cubs, Zambrano Won't Pitch in Final Game

The Cubs 2008 regular season will be completed by a revolving door of pitchers, starting with Angel Guzman. According to AP, Carlos Zambrano passed on pitching the first two innings in favor of a side session. Big Z is still on track to start Game 2 of the NLDS.

While the game is of huge significance to the Brewers, it will resemble the Cactus League for the Cubs pitching staff.

Piniella said it was likely that no Cubs pitcher would throw more than two innings Sunday.

"We'll have to pitch as many people as we can," he said. "We're in a situation where we've used six starters this week and there's really not much of a choice."

Cubs NLDS Pitching Set

Lou Piniella has finalized his rotation and bullpen for the first round of the playoffs, according to Bruce Miles. The final decision was made, keeping Jeff Samardzija on the roster, while leaving Chad Gaudin off. Jason Marquis and Bob Howry had been assured of spots earlier in the week.

Neal Cotts
Ryan Dempster
Rich Harden
Bob Howry
Ted Lilly
Carlos Marmol
Jason Marquis
Sean Marshall
Jeff Samardzija
Kerry Wood
Carlos Zambrano

The 14 position players remain unsettled.

10 Loss Relievers

When the Cubs beat Luis Ayala in the 10th inning, Ayala became the first pitcher to make 0 starts but lose 10 games since Yhency Brazoban and Scot Shields in 2005.

The beauty of the accomplishment isn't just the rarity. Here are all the 10+ loss seasons for a pure reliever since 2000.

2008  Ayala      10
2005  Brazoban   10
2005  Shields    11
2004  Ayala      12
2002  Jimenez    10

That's right, only the 5th time it has happened in all of baseball in 9 seasons. Twice to Luis Ayala. Nice.

Cubs Clinch Home Field, Mets Grip on Postseason Loosened

The Cubs have clinched the top spot in the National League, while the Mets post-season hopes took a hit.

By beating the Mets, the Cubs put the Brewers just one game back of the New Yorkers for the NL Wild Card. The Phillies won their game, moving 2.5 games up in the East. The Cubs figured in that one, too, as Scott Eyre got the W over the Braves.

Barring three straight wins by the Mets over the Cubs and the Pirates over the Brewers, the Cubs/Brewers series will still have an impact on the Wild Card race. Expect the Brewers to be battling over the final weekend, since neither Buccos or the Mets appear poised to do much of anything.

The Rays moved one step closer to an unlikely AL East title, defeating the Orioles, while the Indians beat the Red Sox. The Phillies and Rays both have a magic number of 4. The idle Yankees live to fight another day, as the Bostonians couldn't quite eliminate their rivals.

Cubs Still Involved in Playoff Races

As the season enters its final week, the playoff races are still cooking. With the only battle in the AL that has real meaning isolated in the Central, the NL mixes it up quite a bit more. As a result, the 2008 NLC Champions won't be taking this week completely off.

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American League

The White Sox are three ahead of the Twins in the loss column with seven games left to play, so just about anything can happen. The Twins host a three game set with the Sox this week.

The Angels finished up the West back in early May, if I recall correctly. Their lead is more than the other five division leads combined.

The AL Wild Card is still undecided. The Yankees are as close to elimination as you can get, but the Rays and the Red Sox are still battling for the East title. The consolation price will be a Wild Card spot, whatever the outcome.

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National League

The Central has been put to bed by the Cubs. Only the Brewers remain in the playoff hunt amongst the also-rans.

Out West, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks continue to battle for King of Mediocrity. The Dodgers have a 1.5 game lead at the moment. Neither team should be taken too lightly, the Dodgers have some good hitters and a smidgen of pitching, while the Arizona club has two or three quality starters, if you include Randy Johnson.

In the East, the Phillies and the Mets both have the edge over their Wild Card rival Brewers, but there isn't a guaranteed consolation price in the Senior Circuit. The Phils cling to a 1.5 game lead entering Monday's games.

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The Cubs in the Mix

As we all know, Saturday's win over the Cardinals ended the Central race. Still, the Cubs are in the thick of things.

The Cubs need just one win this week, or a loss by Philadelphia, to clinch home field advantage for the first two playoff rounds. While that's a foregone conclusion, the Cubs will be right in the middle of some unfinished business.

With four games against the Mets, and three against the Brewers, the Cubs owe it to both clubs to compete evenly in all seven games. No one will quibble some short starts or days off, but no one, including Lou Piniella, wants to see the 4-A team from Sunday.

Price Check in St. Pete

Update A new post on Price can be found here, with more (better) pitch ID's.


Super Prospect David Price will make his first start for the Rays Monday night. After two appearances in relief, the 6'6" lefty out of Vanderbilt gets to make that first start in his home park. Or not, the game is in Baltimore (and Price no-hit the O's into the 5th, but a tough E5 and two singles has loaded it up).

Driveline Mechanics has a nice look at Price's mechanics (and a link to some PITCHf/x data). He checks out very well.

If you follow the link (and the PFX link within), you'll get a little bit about his stuff - a fastball and a slider. That slider looks close to being a cutter/slutter, but I could be wrong, simply since he throws so hard.

I'm labeling the pitches FA (fastball) and FC (cutter, but probably not a cutter), and my IDs almost exactly match Gameday's. So, we're probably both wrong :-)

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
FA	60	34	26	0.4667	0.2143	3.0000	0.4833	0.1000	0.2258	0.2759
FC	38	11	27	0.5526	0.4286	2.4000	0.5526	0.1316	0.3529	0.2857
	98	45	53	0.5000	0.3061	2.7692	0.5102	0.1122	0.2708	0.2800

Small sample aside, those are some serious whiff rates. A 20%+ on a fastball is quite good (elite good), and, the other pitch, whatever it is, is obviously nasty as all git-up.

The fastball broke 97 against the Yankees in his debut, but he'll probably throw about 95 normally. Or so I've read. The slutter comes in around 87-88, but can go anywhere from 84 to 91.

Plate locations:



You can see he can throw both pitches for strikes.

In these flight paths, you can see the heater tails away from righties, and the slider/slutter/cutter basically is a straight pitch.



The really is more variance, and it will have some more break to it on occasion, but, in any case, the average flight paths show good overlap (again, small sample warning). It's about 7 inches of movement off the fastball path, downward and inward to a righty.

Here are the raw spin movement plots, in case you're curious.

Brad Snyder Claimed, Adam Harben DFA'd

According to cubs.com, the Cubs claimed outfielder Brad Snyder off waivers from the Indians. Adam Harben, acquired for Phil Nevin a couple years ago, was bounced from the 40-man roster to make room.

Here's more on both players from First Inning

Adam Harben
Brad Snyder

Snyder's BB:K ratio and OBA this season in AAA were horrifying. Not sure he's worthy of a roster spot.

Part of My Baseball Past Comes to an End

No, not Yankee Stadium. The Blue Jays - Chiefs relationship ends after 31 years.

The Chiefs' board of directors voted Saturday to sign with the Nationals...Syracuse had been the top minor league affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays for 31 years, but the relationship suffered through the franchise's long history of losing.

At least my old college town will hang on to some form of a Canadian connection to major league baseball, by affiliating with the ex-Expos. More clear is their continued commitment to support struggling franchises. Now that the Blue Jays are playing quality baseball, it was time for the beloved Chiefs to move on. The Washington Nationals fit the bill nicely.

Actually, that isn't even true. In each of my last two years in Syracuse, the parent club won it all. It was a point of serious pride that Chiefs players were out winning rings in the bigs.

Fond Summer memories of days at MacArthur Stadium include:

1. Cheap Labatts


2. Ed Sprague before he was a barely recognizable major leaguer


3. Derek Bell before we realized how awful he was


4. Taco Bell on Erie giving away as many game tickets as you'd like


5. A young Al Leiter


6. Did I mention the beer?

MacArthur is now a parking lot.

Before



After (new park in background)



But the team is still called the Chiefs, after a changing to Skychiefs for several years. Still politically correct, however.

Marquis Heads Home to Face Niese

Staten Island resident and native of Manhasset, Jason Marquis, heads to Queens to face Jonathon Niese and the New York Mets. It could be a preview of the NLDS.

If the season ended today, the Phillies would win the NL East and the Mets the Wild Card. The Cubs would host the Mets on October 1. There's a week to go, and the Cubs will wrap-up home field in short order, as the "magic number" for that privilege is 1.

Niese is a rookie, with just two appearances, both starts, under his belt. His debut came on September 2, in Milwaukee. On September 13 he made his first pitch in front of the home crowd.

The young lefty was born the night the 1986 Mets won the World Series. In Lima, not Peru, but Ohio. He's now a 6'4" 21 year-old. Or 6'3", depending on your source.

Niese throws a big overhand curve, a straight change and a fastball. He almost certainly mixes in two-seamers with four-seamers, and there may be a cutter, a splitter and some other stuff in there. With only two starts, and less than 140 pitches in the PITCHf/x data, some ID's will be tentative for a while.

Here in the spin movement (deviation from the path of a pitch with no spin) you can see each pitch from both Miller and Shea. Release points were essentially identical, so, without adjustment, it is fairly save to just lump 'em together.



Plate locations - a little wild.



Release points. No park effects here, as mentioned above. The change comes from a lower spot, the curve from up top, and the fastball all points.



Two things:

Niese tends to work glove-side and doesn't get in on lefties

He tends to work up in the zone, very little down around the plate

Niese's fastball can break 93, but sits around 89-91. The change-up takes about 8 mph off, with only 2-4 inches of movement off the fastball. That one "splitter" checked in at 80, the "cutter" around 86. The likely two-seam group is also about 1-2 mph down from the four-seam.

The curveball is the eye catcher. We're talking 17 inches of drop, compared to the fastball, along with about a half-foot of movement in on a righty, as compared to the fastballs.

Niese's pitch selection, by start, by hitter hand.

#	date	stand	Change	Fastball	Curve
10	2008-09-02	L	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000
63	2008-09-02	R	0.2063	0.5714	0.2222
46	2008-09-13	L	0.0217	0.7174	0.2609
70	2008-09-13	R	0.0571	0.6286	0.3000
189*			0.0952	0.6402	0.2593

*totals include the splitter (1)

Pitch results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	18	1	17	0.3889	0.1429	10.00	0.5556	0.0000	0.1250	0.4000
CU	49	14	35	0.5510	0.2222	1.44	0.5306	0.0612	0.5217	0.4231
FA	121	41	80	0.3388	0.0732	1.86	0.3719	0.1405	0.1842	0.4000
	188	56	132	0.3989	0.1333	1.97	0.4309	0.1064	0.2523	0.4074

That curveball looks to be fooling hitters. If the Cubs can lay off it and make him throw fastballs for strikes, they'll be in good shape. However, Niese can throw the curve for a strike, which is a bit of a problem if he throws it early in the count.

Pitches in Counts

This is just two games, so be wary....

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	FA LHH	CU LHH	RHH	CH RHH	FA RHH	CU RHH
51	0	0	16	0.0625	0.7500	0.1875	35	0.1714	0.6286	0.2000
28	0	1	8	0.0000	0.6250	0.3750	20	0.1000	0.4500	0.4000
12	0	2	3	0.0000	0.3333	0.6667	9	0.0000	0.5556	0.4444
18	1	0	5	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	13	0.2308	0.6154	0.1538
16	1	1	6	0.0000	0.6667	0.3333	10	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000
15	1	2	6	0.0000	0.5000	0.5000	9	0.1111	0.3333	0.5556
8	2	0	2	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	6	0.3333	0.6667	0.0000
7	2	1	3	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	4	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
12	2	2	3	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	9	0.0000	0.4444	0.5556
4	3	0	0				4	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
5	3	1	1	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	4	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
13	3	2	3	0.0000	0.6667	0.3333	10	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000

So far, Niese doesn't use the curve much until he's ahead.

CC is OK

After CC Sabathia's start against the Cubs last week, there was a bit of buzz about the spike in change-up use, and drop in fastball use. As I noted this weekend, CC's biggest change was a lack of first pitch fastballs.

Sabathia came back on short rest against the Reds on Saturday, and, despite losing the game and the decision, CC seems to be as strong as before. Before an apples-to-apples comparison of the data I looked at earlier, I want to share a break-down of CC's pitch selection by game.

I haven't bothered to split his two-seam and four-seam fastballs (he's mostly four-seam anyway), but I did chart it three ways - vs. LHH, vs. RHH and combined.

The primary information in the following is CC's pitch selection. The y-axis and colored lines show the % of pitches CC threw of that type over the entire sample for a given date. I've also added the # of pitches thrown. That's also plotted on the y, but marked with a dotted line, with the pitch counts on the secondary (right-side) y-axis. The numbers on the right do not correspond with pitch type, only the total pitches thrown (sample). Also remember, 2007 is spotty, as many parks gradually came online during the season, and, even in 2008, game data is often incomplete. Pitch IDs are my own, not Gamedays.



Against lefties, well, he doesn't face many. Sometimes none. And he rarely uses a change-up to a lefty hitter. Think about that for a moment - more righties, more change-ups overall.



Even against righties, the change-up did spike against the Cubs (next to last point).



So, all things considered, CC threw more change-ups than usual against the Cubs, but more fastballs than usual against the Reds. However, the change-up usage against the Cubs wasn't out of his normal range, based on the almost exclusive set of right-handed hitting Cubs in the line-up.

Here is how CC's pitch selection broke out on first pitches against the Cubs:

          
          PITCH
COUNT   FA   SL/CH   FA%
0-0     14    16     47%
Others  29    40     42%
All     43    56     43%

And Saturday, against the Reds:

          
          PITCH
COUNT   FA   SL/CH   FA%
0-0     16    11     59%
Others  48    30     62%
All     64    41     62%

Going back to the CC numbers before being acquired by the Brewers, he was throwing first pitch fastballs over 70%, to both lefty and righty hitters. Including all the games as a Brewer, he's now down to about 68%. Exclude the last two starts, he's around 69%. Since joining the Brewers, he's thrown under 63% first pitch fastballs, and just 57% to lefties (64% to righties).

So, he's been throwing less first pitch heat in the NL, especially Tuesday against the Cubs. That seems to be a better explanation than anything health related.

Cubs Win Second Straight NLC Title

Lou Piniella is enjoying a champagne shower courtesy of Carlos Zambrano. Ted Lilly, Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood combined for a 5-4 win over the Cardinals. Ted Lilly's squeeze bunt plated what turned out to be the winning run.

Now Lou and Larry can set the pitching up for their first round challenger. The Cubs can probably sleep their way to home field advantage, too.

Cubs and Brewers Series Answered Some Questions but Raised Others

The Cubs pulled off an unbelievable win Thursday, to take two games out of three against Milwaukee. It was a demoralizing loss for the Brewers, as they fell behind in the Wild Card race, backed-up against the wall to near certain elimination (should happen today) and that's not the worst of it.

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The series opened with CC Sabathia facing Ryan Dempster. The Brewers have won all of CC's starts against every team, except the Cubs. Last time, it was a no decision, but this time, Sabathia took his first loss as a Brewer. Ryan Dempster earned his career-high 16th victory.

Following the game on WGN and Gameday, I was really surprised at the number of off-speed pitches Sabathia used on Tuesday night. I wasn't alone, as noted on numerous blogs, news and scouting sites.

Looking back to CC Sabathia's stuff, which I reviewed after he was traded to Milwaukee, he was a pretty typical power pitcher, throwing over 70% fastballs on 0-0 counts - to both left- and right-handed batters. Overall, he had been throwing 58.8% fastballs.

Against the Cubs, it was a different story. Facing all righties (one AB by Fukudome in the 7th), Sabathia threw 14 first pitch fastballs, 13 change-ups and 3 sliders. That's just under 47% real cheese. Not what you'd expect from Wisconsin.

Of the 99 pitches in the PITCHf/x sample from Tuesday, Sabathia threw 43 fastballs, again, well below the 58 you'd expect in a 100 pitch CC outing.

          PITCH
COUNT   FA   SL/CH   FA%
0-0     14    16     47%
Others  29    40     42%
All     43    56     43%

Keep an eye on Sabathia against the Reds on Saturday night. He'll be working on short rest, which is not something he's used to doing.

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If CC Sabathia's pitch selection didn't raise enough eyebrows, Ben Sheets' departure after just two innings sure did.

Thanks to text messaging, we were able to learn the state of Sheets' forearm/elbow while still at the game. The Brewers managed to win Wednesday night, but, we sure learned a lot about them the next day.

Turns out, Sheets has had an MRI recently, has been having issues with this elbow and forearm for quite some time, his groin injury wasn't so much a groin issue but an elbow issue, and, the kicker, he had a "cutting" sensation during his first inning match-up with Derrek Lee. How he lasted another inning is beyond me. Sheets hopes to make one more start, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I'm sure his agent is thrilled.

As you can see in this abbreviated inning-by-inning speed plot, Sheets lost velocity on everything.



Now, pitch-by-pitch, with DLee's AB boxed.



Sheets threw curves, four-seamers, and, maybe, one two-seamer to Geovany Soto. In any case, the Brewers are bumming if these guys are ailing. There is some good news for the Crew, Prince Fielder is on fire.

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Enough about the Brewers, how about those Cubs? With the magic number at 1, and home field advantage clinched with 4 wins + Met/Phillie losses (depending on who's first at the moment), things look pretty good.

Zambrano's start Friday was ugly, but he was apparently tired from flying back-and-forth to Venezuela. Big Z's grandma passed away, and he traveled home to be with his family.

Things aren't quite perfect in Cub land, with Chad Gaudin still rehabbing his back, Jeff Samardzija showing some cracks, and Kerry Wood making things interesting on a regular basis. Bob Howry, meanwhile, can't get it together, so the bullpen is a little mushier than one would like at this stage.

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A few things about the Cubs during those Brewer games that I had to check on...

1. Dempster Wore Down


2. One-Speed Howry


3. Samardzija Status


4. Angel Guzman's Cutter

Dempster Wore Down
Ryan lost some gas by the 4th inning, and took another tick down in the 6th. In the end, he was sitting at what had been the low end of his range earlier in the game.



One-Speed Howry
Facing Sabathia and Mike Cameron to start the 7th inning, Bob Howry threw five pitches, virtually the same speed

91.9
92.7
92.3
92.3
92.7

A first pitch strike to CC led to a fly out to Alfonso Soriano, but the next four were all it took for Cameron to earn a free pass. Low and away is no way to go through life, son.



Yes, that's a fastball a foot off the plate.

Samardzija Status
It's a little hard to read about Samardzija struggling when he was getting ground balls, and was hurt badly by a booted double-play ball. Still, he's a key piece of the bullpen that hasn't gone out and met the early, and high, expectations.

I don't think Jeff threw a single splitter against the Brewers, some straight changes and sliders along with his nasty fastball. He let it go at 94.7 - 97.6 mph, so the heat was definitely on. Plenty of movement, but not many strikes.

Samardzija missed the zone on most of his pitches, finding the plate only 12 times out of 31 chucks. Worse, 11 of those that found the plate were fastballs. Of the six off-speed pitches Jeff used, only one found the plate.

That may have been by design, but, as long as hitters can wait in the zone for the fastball, and ignore all else, he will be vulnerable. If he can find a way to use the slider on lefties and righties, he can probably drop the change-up and/or splitter. He seems a long way from being a four-pitch starter, and being a two-pitch reliever may be a better fit.

Angel Guzman's Cutter
Watching Guzzie pitch lately has been a little rough, but his stuff is impressive. Even at the game, you can see the movement on the cutter. He busted it on Ray Durham to good effect. His stuff is great.

Four-seam fastball, touches 97.
Two-seam fastball, almost as fast, but moves about a half-foot down and in on a righty, compared to the four-seam.
The cutter, that tops out around 93/94, and has basically the opposite effect of the two-seam - similar difference in movement and drop, but bores in on lefties instead.
Add a curveball that can re-set the eye by as much as 18 inches, which also leaves his hand at 80mph, you've got serious stuff.

Like Samardzija, Guzman had control issues against the Brewers. Both of these guys can turn into dominate pitchers, at least one of them will be a starter - Guzman far more likely than Samardzija, at this point.

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Another obvious question from the series would be Rich Harden's control. I'll look at Harden and Zambrano's latest outings in an upcoming post.

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So, we learned how hurt Sheets is, but are left wondering when he'll come back, and, more so, what's up with CC Sabathia.

Dempster was strong, but may have fatigued a little. Given the workload, despite his conditioning, it is something I want to watch closely as the regular season closes out.

Samardzija and Guzman are exhibiting electric stuff, but less than stellar control. Both appear to be healthy and strong, but the pressure is on, as Bob Howry can't find the plate. He's still tossing one speed, so I can understand why he's scared to touch the plate. Who will step-up for the postseason?

Oh No Soto

From RotoWorld.com

Geovany Soto is out of the lineup for Friday's game with a left hand injury sustained on a swing Thursday.
He was set to have X-rays before the contest. Henry Blanco is starting in his place.

Updated, from Pinetar

they were negative. Swelling in the upper portion of his left hand

Update Again, ESPN has more ... day-to-day, hit his home run after hurting his hand.

One More Update, Cubs.com says "joint irritation"

The Waiting Has Begun

The Cubs' magic number remains at four after Wednesday's 6-2 loss to the Brewers. The earliest clinch day is now Friday. A win against the Cardinals in the afternoon would clinch a tie, and the Reds host the Brewers in the evening.

When I got home from the park last night, I immediately wanted to take a look at Angel Guzman's cutter, and Ben Sheets' early demise. Randy Wells made his Cubs debut, too. Not to mention Monday's game, which was pretty good, in a heart attack kind of way

I'm heading back to Wrigley for a rare weekday matinee (for me), and I'll have a series wrap-up post tonight Friday, covering all three games against Milwaukee.

Ted Lilly - Back on Track

After a horrible two-inning start against the Reds, Ted Lilly has been outstanding.

Lacking any of his own ideas and creativity, Lilly tried to pitch a no-hitter against the Astros. He came up short, despite a generous error charged to Aramis Ramirez. A clean single to Mark Loretta ended the bid.

Lilly turned the game over to the bullpen after the 7th, having thrown less than 90 pitches. Jeff Samardzija gave up a couple walks, and one run scored after Carlos Marmol came in to put out the fire. Bob Howry pitched a 1-2-3 ninth to finish the one-hitter.

Here's some before and after on Lilly's stuff. "After" being his last two starts, "Before" being everything else, going back to 2007's first PITCHf/x games. Not a whole of difference, and speed and movement (not shown) don't show any notable differences, either.

All of Lilly's starts, prior to September 10:

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	615	87	528	0.4797	0.3288	2.8	0.4293	0.0780	0.2934	0.2727
CU	603	119	484	0.4063	0.1510	2.3	0.4395	0.0813	0.2426	0.3849
FA	2240	520	1720	0.4893	0.1670	1.6	0.4750	0.1134	0.3384	0.3440
SL	947	261	686	0.4921	0.1567	1.4	0.5185	0.1225	0.3202	0.3483
	4405	987	3418	0.4772	0.1855	1.8	0.4731	0.1060	0.3141	0.3412

Ted's last two starts:

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	9	0	9	0.1111	0.0000	3.0	0.1111	0.1111	0.1250	1.0000
CU	15	0	15	0.4000	0.1667	3.5	0.3333	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000
FA	78	4	74	0.5256	0.2927	2.3	0.4615	0.0641	0.3571	0.2778
SL	74	8	66	0.5811	0.1860	1.2	0.4865	0.1892	0.4737	0.3056
	176	12	164	0.5170	0.2308	1.9	0.4432	0.1307	0.3776	0.3077

That slider (SL) is really a cutter, BTW. I'm too lazy to update my IDs, even though it will take about 1 second.

The biggest difference I see there is the fastball whiff rate - that's insanely high for anyone's four-seamer (FA). The partner to that fastball, Lilly's circle change (CH) is not in the mix.

Here's Lilly's start-by-start pitch selections. Note the huge spike in slider/cutter usage.



Curveballs have dropped off, too. Again.

While I'm dropping charts in here, take a look at Lilly's plate location during the Astros game in Milwaukee.



Lilly only threw the yellow hammer to righties, and each and everyone was up and away. Almost, two or three got too much plate.

Think about that for a minute. The ball is dropping and moving towards the hitter. It comes out of his hand obviously a curveball (I would hope hitters can spot it), but looking way up and away. And then it comes on back. Even if it's a ball, it still sticks something in the hitter's mind.

Milwaukee Theme Week Continues - Brewers in Town for Three

On the heals of an impressive two game, one hit performance against the Astros in Miller Park, the Cubs host the Brewers in Wrigley Field. Two night games, followed by a matinee on Thursday.

Let's see, what's new. Oh, not much, I guess.

1. Big Z threw a no hitter (PITCHf/x review)


2. Lilly threw a one hitter the next day (more on that over here)


3. The Brewers canned Ned Yost and gave Dale Sveum the job (no link - do you live under a rock?)


4. CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets pitch the night games (more on CC here and an older Big Z vs. Sheets post)


5. Manny Parra has been tossed from the rotation, replaced by Seth McClung Dave Bush (I managed skim the article too fast). (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel) - I'll have something up on Bush and McClung later. Here's Spring Training quick preview of Bush.


6. Too bad Drayton Mclane didn't say that he understood the decision to play in Milwaukee before the Astros leadership further demoralized their team (USA Today)

I'm really curious as to what team show ups in the visitor's dugout tonight. I suspect the Brewers will be pretty much ready to go. They've been through an awful lot the past few days - swept by the Phillies, manager fired, watched on TV while the Cubs had a no hitter in their park - but I'm guessing it will have cleared the cobwebs. Should be a good series.

Carlos Zambrano: "I'm Back" - No Hitter Reviewed in PITCHf/x

Carlos Zambrano's no-hitter was spectacular. He came out throwing some serious heat, and was still throwing hard in the 9th inning. Carlos attributed this power to improved use of his legs. When asked if he realized he was hitting 98 in the first inning, he said he saw it on the scoreboard. When asked what he thought, his response was simple - "I'm Back".

Using Gameday's PITCHf/x data, what follows is a breakdown of Zambrano's stuff on this historic occasion. First, some definitions.

Pitch ID:
F2 = Two-seam fastball
F4 = Four-seam fastball
FC = Cutter
FS = Splitter
SL = Slider

Spin Movement
Measured in inches, and in the "x" and "z" dimensions (lateral and vertical, respectively), this is the difference in movement from the actual pitch to an identical pitch without spin. Also referred to as spin deflection. X values that are negative indicate movement to the catcher's left. Negative y values mean the ball dropped more than would've been predicted by gravity's force alone.

Release Point
Location of the pitch 55 ft. from home plate. A close approximation of actual release points. Measured in feet, and, like Spin Movement, negative numbers on the x-axis mean "left" of center, from the catcher's view.

Plate Location
Also in feet, from the catcher's view. Strike zone is "typical" zone, as called, from 1.5 ft. to 3.5 ft. above the ground. The "plate" is two feet wide in the graphs (but not the stats ... see below).

Pitch Outcomes
Swing = swing rate (swings divided by pitches)
Whiff = whiff rate (misses divided by swings)
B:CS = balls/called strikes, as called by the umpire
ISZ = rate of pitch in the zone; uses the PITCHf/x operator defined top/bottom values for each hitter, and a standard 17 inch plate.
Paint = rate of pitch out of zone, but within the "two foot plate" discussed above - in other words, just off the edge, not more than a ball's width.
Chase = swing rate, but for only pitches out of the zone
Watch = take rate for pitches in the strike zone, without regard to the umpire's call

Now, the data.


The tables are sortable, the images can be clicked and enlarged.

CFX	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
F2	15	1	14	0.6000	0.0000	5.0	0.4667	0.1333	0.3750	0.1429
F4	31	21	10	0.4839	0.2667	0.7	0.6452	0.0645	0.4545	0.5000
FC	40	34	6	0.4000	0.1875	1.5	0.4500	0.1250	0.2273	0.3889
FS	14	14	0	0.4286	0.6667	-	0.0000	0.0714	0.4286	-
SL	7	1	6	0.2857	0.5000	0.7	0.5714	0.1429	0.0000	0.5000

Spin Movement

All pitches:



Average pitch:



Flight path for average pitch:



Release Points

All pitches:



Average pitch:



Also see the flights path under Spin Movement

Plate Locations



Pitch Speed by Inning




I really think the performance Carlos had speaks for itself, so I'll leave you with just a few thoughts.

First, Big Z was throwing hard. Second, he had terrific control. Was that obvious enough?

Zambrano kept the splitter either in the dirt or just out of the zone - except two really wide ones, including the final strike to Darin Erstad.

Carlos didn't rely on his slider much, and he didn't need to. With that much velocity while pounding the strike zone, there wasn't much of a need. Only two batted balls left the infield, which tells you how difficult it was for the Astros to line him up.

If you look back at the flight paths, what is most striking is the consistent plane on all the pitches - except the splitter. His release points were pretty consistent,
and, despite being around the plate, he gave up very little down and over the middle, so there wasn't much to hit all night.

Zambrano's Shoulder - Healthy Enough to No-Hit the Astros

Carlos Zambrano has pitched a complete game, no-hit shutout of the Houston Astros. Playing in Milwaukee's Miller Park, Zambrano over powered the "home team" and exhibited impressive control. Zambrano allowed just a single walk and a hit batter. He struck out ten, and faced just one batter over the minimum, thanks to a double play.

I'll have a full analysis of Carlos Zambrano's no hitter in this space. Short story - he had something extra on his fastball.

Plenty of Baseball, Even With Ike

Hurricane Ike postponed, and moved, the Cubs/Astros games the past two days, but there certainly wasn't a lack of great baseball to enjoy. Thanks to mlb.tv (now letting you choose home/away broadcasts) I was able to see some great stuff Saturday.

Francisco Rodriquez picked up his 58th save, breaking Bobby Thigpen's record. Got to watch that piece of history. In the post-game, on-field, celebration, Mike Scioscia embraced K-Rod. Watching that scene reminded me of how dangerous the Angels are in the post-season. They dominated a weak division, and aren't the most impressive team in the AL by any stretch. But they have some critical pieces in place (pitching) and an NL style manager. Scioscia was Tommy Lasorda's catcher for two World Series winning Dodger teams, and caught for old Tommy's club for over 13 seasons.

Tim Lincecum had his first complete game shutout, but it took nearly 140 pitches. I watched in amazement as he was left in for the 8th and 9th innings. His velocity was still there, but that's a lot of pitches. I hope the Giants don't kill this kid, he's incredible. And we've seen this before.

Every time I look, the Reds are doing something in the 9th inning. At least it isn't the Cubs being victimized anymore. Francisco Cordero picked up save #30 for Cincinnati while knocking the Diamondbacks even further back of the Dodgers (who beat the Rockies). The Dodgers are going to make it to LA teams, both coming out of ugly divisions. Want to win baseball games? Go West. Probably the best part of the game was Micah Owings driving in the winning run with a pinch-hit double. He just joined the Reds as the last piece of the Adam Dunn trade.

The Phillies beat the Brewers, closing the gap in the NL Wild Card to just two games. Ned Yost is probably going the way of his AAA manager, who was fired after his season ended. And the Cardinals lost to the Pirates again. Their improbable run is ending, as they slip further behind the Astros, settling into 4th place in the NL Central.

Talking about the Astros, the Cubs finally face them tonight. Miller Park will host the clubs for a night game Sunday and a day game Monday. In the unlikely event it is necessary, the 3rd game of the series will be played in Houston on September 29.

Worst case scenario for the Cubs - 3 games in Milwaukee at the end of the schedule, followed by the make-up game in Houston, followed by a tie-breaker with the Brewers in Milwaukee. Ain't gonna happen, but it would be ugly. Magic Number is 10, could be 5 by Monday or Tuesday.

Cubs and Cards - Pitching Things Watched

Before the Cubs/Cards series began on Tuesday, I listed a few things I wanted to watch for, related to pitching.

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1. Did Carlos Zambrano's bullpen session clear him for Houston?

All the reports I heard on WGN radio were good, that Carlos had good workouts with no issues. The extra rest from the Hurricane Ike situation can't hurt.

Given what I've seen and read of Ike so far, there is good reason to be out of there. I hope folks took the evacuation seriously, and that the damage is minimal. Scary stuff.

2. Was Rich Harden healthy Thursday?

He was, and pitched a very good game. But, even with the Busch speed bump (also see below in Dempster's section) really only threw about as hard, overall, as he did last time out, and still well below where he was pre-"discomfort".

These charts show speed at 55 feet from the plate, and are not adjusted for park and weather variations. Click to images enlarge.

Each "stripe" here is a start



Take a quick look back at the inning speed for Harden's previous three starts for comparison to this chart.

Each stripe here is an inning.



Towards the end of Thursdays game, he starting throwing almost all off-speed stuff. When he did use the fastball, he dialed it up. Rich's last heater was his fastest.

Given the stark contrast to Harden's last start, where his velocity disappeared, the fact he pitched with a lot of control on a hot night, in the rain, and was able to dial it back up at the end says he was healthy. Plus, there were no strange, lower, release points like last time.

3. Did Ted Lilly rebound from his disastrous start against the Reds?

Yes, to put it mildly. Lilly pitched a great game, only 90 pitches to get through eight innings. Lou pulled him so Kerry Wood could work the 9th, and it was not fun. Pujols doubled, Ludwick homered and Woody barely escaped with the save.

Lilly's eight innings included no walks, five hits and just one run - on a ground out by Pujols. He also struck out five Redbirds.

Lilly liked his slider on Wednesday. Big time.



Keep in mind, that slider is really some type of slider/cutter combo or mix or slutter type thing.



Looks like Lilly was dropping down a little bit with it, too. The average release points for the circle change (CH) and curveball (CU) are pretty meaningless, given the extremely small samples.

4. Was Ryan Dempster strong?

Overall, Dempster is keeping his velocity up and appears to be handling the starter's workload without difficulty. He may even be throwing better as the season goes on.

Looking at this chart - every pitch (except a couple below the lower threshold) in PITCHf/x going back to 2007. His St. Louis start is a couple ticks higher than his last Chicago start, which is the normal pattern for Wrigley and Busch.



Zooming in on Ryan's pitch speed, by inning. I'm only going back to the beginning of August here.



Seems that Dempster maintains his velocity pretty well, no alarms.

Let's go start-by-start for Ryan's last three appearances.







Pretty impressive for a closer.

5. Did Tony LaRussa use Chris Carpenter or Jason Motte as his closer?

No, and, now, Carpenter was probably shut-down for the season. Meanwhile, Motte came as advertised - fast, but lacking movement. I'll refer you to the pre-series post for more on Motte.

Is Fukudome Finding the Zone?

When the season started, Kosuke Fukudome was very impressive in a few ways. Very good range in the outfield, an outstanding throwing arm, and unbreakable plate discipline. Then things changed on that last point, and he struggled.

His struggles seemed, to me at least, to get worse when George Sherrill buzzed him (see here). Pitchers took advantage of him with fastballs inside and breaking pitches outside. If his plate discipline is any indication (and it has looked as much in the past; see the link for a July article on this topic, here's part one), he may be recovering his differentiating offensive skill.

Sample sizes - September is young, and Kosuke has been riding the pine lately.

click images to enlarge



Again, small sample size, but so far, so good in September. But he's likely to regress towards the past few months' numbers.

If I had to bet on it, I'd say the Autumn version of Kosuke Fukudome is going to be more like the Summer version than the Spring version. But I'm no Tom Skilling.

The strike zone I'm using is the one foot from the center of the plate on each side version. The top and bottom values are based on the average of all his PITCHf/x operator set values.

I'm interested on changes in more specific zones (in/out/up/down), so I may have more on this later.

Pie and Fukudome Starting Against Looper

Braden Looper hosts the Cubs tonight and will face two guys who were supposed to be starters all year, and who both are making noteworthy returns to the lineup tonight.

Felix Pie is back, now that Iowa is out of the AAA playoffs. Pie blew is chance to be the #1 centerfielder - turns out, outplaying Sam Fuld did not suffice. Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds ended up being a great platoon, but, tonight, Felix Pie gets another shot.

With Jim Edmonds struggling, Pie is actually a welcome addition - or at least an interesting one. Kosuke Fukudome, benched for most of the past week, is another story. Fukudome has faded after a fast start, and is now battling for time against Mike Fontenot (who moves Mark DeRosa into Fukudome's spot in the outfield) and Micah Hoffpauir.

Here's the whole lineup for tonight's game

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
Fukudome
DeRosa
Pie
Lilly

vs.

Izturis
Lopez
Pujols
Ludwick
Molina
Phelps
Kennedy
Looper
Schumaker

Braden Looper has been a pretty good starter in 2008. With Adam Wainwright back in the rotation, Looper checks out as a good 4th starter. His stuff is pretty good, as you can see here.

Cardinals Frustrate Cubs

Not a great game for the Cubs. Ryan Dempster made the mistake of putting two guys on in front of Albert Pujols. A first pitch 94 mph fastball, that was as much as two inches out of the zone, but middle third of the plate, was taken out by the best player in baseball.

No Chris Carpenter, but Jason Motte faced Dempster and Alfonso Soriano. Threw one "slider" and a bunch of heat. One came out of his hand going about 99.4 mph. That's fast. It was still going 89.1 when it reached home plate.

Looking at PITCHf/x, his four-seamer doesn't move very much, relative to the other pitchers in tonight's game. Despite the velocity, that lack of movement, along with a poor second pitch, means he's got a ton of work to do. Still, he survived Soriano's fly to right with the bases loaded in the 6th. That happened to be on the 99.4 mph heater, and it ended the inning.

Why did Lou have Geovany Soto bunt? With no sacrifices in his big league career, and just one in his last year in AAA, he seemed like a bad guy for the job. Besides, what's one more double play?

On a 2-1 count Soto bunted into a double play that wasted a lead-off walk by Jim Edmonds. Ryan Franklin had tossed Soto a 90 mph fastball, maybe it was a cutter. The ball was up and away, and Soto bunted it back to Franklin.

Wind it up and try again on Wednesday night.

Zambrano Ready for Houston

According to WGN radio, Carlos Zambrano had his bullpen session today in St. Louis. Big Z completed the work-out without issue and is scheduled to face the Astros this weekend.

Lou Piniella, in his pre-game interview, added Zambrano will go on Saturday, and Rich Harden had another good workout Monday.

Felix Pie to Re-Join Cubs for St. Louis Series

According to a recent post at CCO, Felix Pie will rejoin the big league team for Tuesday night's game against the Cardinals:

Jim Hendry was on Sports Central with Dave Kaplan on Monday night and said Felix Pie will be recalled and with the Cubs on Tuesday in St. Louis. The I-Cubs were eliminated from the PCL playoffs on Sunday.

As I noted last night, Randy Wells is also joining the bullpen.

Cubs Recall Randy Wells

Joining the bullpen for the Cardinals series will be right-hander Randy Wells. Left exposed in the Rule V draft, Wells went to the Blue Jays, and pitched a little before being waived and returned to the Cubs. He led the Iowa Cubs in wins, K's and ERA after returning to the organization. Here's more on Wells, and his stuff.

Cubs and Cards - Pitching Things to Watch

After a rough series in Cincinnati, the Cubs head to St. Louis to face the Cardinals. The Redbirds are clinging to the playoff chase by a feather, while the Cubs' claws appear to be loosening their grip on the National League. This week's three game set will be very telling for both clubs. I'm mostly interested, for the moment, in some pitching issues.

Questions to ponder over the next 96 hours:

1. Will Carlos Zambrano's bullpen session clear him for Houston?


2. Will Rich Harden be healthy Thursday?


3. Will Ted Lilly rebound from his disastrous start against the Reds?


4. Will Ryan Dempster stay strong?


5. Will Tony LaRussa use Chris Carpenter or Jason Motte as his closer?

Sure, four of the five are Cubs related. This isn't Cardinals f/x, after all.

Question #1 will answer itself in some fashion. I've looked at Carlos up and down and he seems to be OK, certainly not great, but I'm expecting him to bounce back. He needs to focus on his conditioning this off-season, that's for sure.

For question #2, I'll refer to my last check on Harden - watch his velocity and release point Thursday.

Question #3 is also not a fun one. Lilly has had some bad outings, but, with Harden and Zambrano looking at least a little dicey, he's our number two starter - in case of emergency. He's been all over the place this year, we need the decent (if not great) version of Ted Lilly down the stretch, starting with fastball command. Curveballs may not be needed.

For question #4, Dempster is fit and throwing good stuff. I'll be really surprised if he tires, despite the huge increase in workload this year.

Finally, the Cardinals and their closer. Jason Isringhausen is done for the year and Adam Wainwright has returned from the DL and moved right back into the rotation. Chris Carpenter is back, but as a reliever. LaRussa may ask him to close. His fastball/slider combo should suffice in that role. Chris Perez, currently the primary closer, has been inconsistent.

So why not Jason Motte? With his September 3 debut, he's only thrown 35 pitches, but they were nasty. Like Carlos Marmol, this is a converted catcher. He throws a four-seam fastball, clocking from 95.6 mph to 98.9 mph. Pretty straight, but very hard. He's thrown a couple splitters (or so I'm calling them) and some sliders. Of the four sliders, three were thrown around 90, one down around 82. He's a work in progress, for sure, and we're looking at a small sample, split between Busch and Chase. Sample's too small for flight paths, so I'll just show you his spin movement (in inches, catcher's view).



Motte will be fun to watch, and hopefully it won't be in any type of save situation. Go Cubs.

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In other news, multiple outlets are reporting (but I'll link to the Sun Times) that Jon Lieber has left the club and looks to be done for 2008 .... Carlos Zambrano threw off flat ground Sunday and was fine .... Aramis Ramirez is having quad issues, again

Cubs Lose in 9th, but Marshall Does Job in Place of Zambrano; Another Career Mark for DeRosa

Carlos Zambrano's shoulder problems forced Sean Marshall to stay in the rotation for a second turn. This had cost the Cubs, as noted by the Sun Times, when Marshall's absence in the pen played into Jon Lieber being left in to face Jay Bruce on Friday. Bruce hit a grand slam off Lieber and the Reds rolled on to stomp the Cubs. Don't blame Lieber, or Lou or Zambrano. Ted Lilly had only lasted two innings.

Mark DeRosa set yet another career high, with 8 HBP for the season. He's also posted career best totals in home runs, RBI, runs, sacrifice flies, walks, stolen bases and matched his career best in triples. He's just 12 short of his career mark for total bases, and 21 hits and 3 strikeouts.

The Cubs got their Marshall's worth on Sunday, as Sean turned in six solid innings on 103 pitches. After Marshall had wrapped up the bottom half of the 6th, his teammates were given a chance to score when Aaron Harang hit the first two batters to come up in the 7th. Geovany Soto and Mark DeRosa made Harang pay for their bruises, as both came around to score. DeRosa was plated on a sacrifice fly by Mike Fontenot, who was hitting for Sean Marshall.

With Marshall in line for the win, Kerry Wood blew the save when Ronny Cedeno mishandled a potential game-ending double-play ball. Cedeno entered the game when Ryan Theriot departed ("under the weather"), and went 1-for-2 with an RBI. A walk-off single followed Cedeno's error, sending the Cubs off with a 2-1 series defeat in Cincinnati.

Here's a look at Marshall's spin movement (deflection, in inches, from the path of a spinless pitch; from the catcher's view):




And plate locations, in feet:

Soriano and Marquis Stop the Skid, Cubs Face Improving Harang Sunday

About 30,000 Cubs fans showed up to watch Alfonso Soriano and Jason Marquis lead the Cubs to a 14-9 streak-breaker at Great American Ball Park. Sunday, a little after noon Central, the Cubs go for a series win before moving on to St. Louis.

Starting in the finale for the Cubs will be Sean Marshall, spotting for the injured Carlos Zambrano. A revived Aaron Harang starts for the Reds. This is not the same guy the Cubs have beat a couple times this season, this is more like the pre-2008 Harang.

After a short and poor outing against the Cubs on July 8, Harang was shutdown until returning to the Reds on August 10. He wasn't much better the first couple times out, but, despite losing two decisions, Harang has been more like his old self in the last three games.

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Harang throws a couple fastballs, and the occasional cutter. For the purposes of expediency, I'm grouping them together (FA). He rounds out with a change (CH), and a slider/curve slurvey type combo (SL and CU). It's mostly fastball and slider.

click images to enlarge

Spin movement, in inches (deviation from the path of a spinless pitch):



As seen in the following flight paths, the 6'7" Harang's stuff may be hard to pick-up.

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I've been combing thru Harang's PFX numbers to see if there is any alignment with his performance shifts. But it's getting late, but if I do find anything worth mentioning in the morning, I'll update this post.

Carlos Zambrano - A Closer Look

Hopefully this will be one of the last - if not the last - post on Carlos Zambrano's health. Since his injury isn't serious, it is possible that he'll recover and get back to full strength before the end of September. Possible, not guaranteed nor certain. I'm not a doctor, but I do know how to use Google. Carlos should be just fine. Still, it's worth a look back at some PITCHf/x data.

First order of business is a baseline, of sorts. Using monthly averages, I took the Cubs four primary starters (Z, Lilly, Dempster and Marquis) and checked their release points across the season. x0 and z0 are lateral and vertical position, respectively, when the ball leaves the pitchers hand, or thereabout (y0=55ft; the distance from home). Negative numbers for x0 are to the catcher's left, positive to his right.





It appears the PITCHf/x system at Wrigley was re-calibrated or adjusted in some fashion. The release values seemed to be drifting towards third base until a correction was made.

Now for Mr. Zambrano. Again, Wrigley only, but going back into 2007, and including his last start ("Aug" below includes September).

There appears to be a compression on the low-end of his pitches (slider/splitter). In other words, the slider and splitter were thrown faster, resulting in less pitches clocking in the low 80s.




My read on the spin movement (deflection from the path of a spinless ball) is that he flattened out a little on the two-seamer (usually the owner of the left-most movement, as seen in the negative numbers) but quite a bit on the slider's sweep, which is the natural path given his low arm slot (as seen in the positive numbers, or to the catcher's right).



Another read on the slider movement is that he hasn't snapped off any really nasty ones lately. Also note the usage patterns on the curveballs in the speed graph, haven't seen too many, if any, lately. That also impacts the number pitches in the 5-7 inch range, in horizontal spin, too.

Keeping the baseline charts on release point in mind, this 3-frame animation shows Zambrano's release points progressively. Again, home games, starting with 2007 up to, and including, June 2008, then adding July, and finally August.

Click the preview to enlarge and animate.



You can see what was shown above, April being pretty much in line with July and August. May and June are off kilter. Still, there is a little bit of a drop, a matter of a few inches, if that.

All said, you can see some differences that may not be attributable to system adjustments. There is a change in speed and movement distributions, at least to the naked eye, and maybe a little shift in release point.

Here are Zambrano's average release points by month (no March or September in there), in inches. These are averages, home games only, so they don't tell a full story.

	x0	z0
Apr	-36.6	75.4
May	-39.5	76.2
Jun	-41.3	74.7
Jul	-35.0	74.3
Aug	-34.6	73.8

Carlos didn't throw much at Wrigley in June (103 pitches), compared to the other months (218-410). Still, the difference between July and August is about a half an inch. For release point measurements, that's beyond the precision, as I'd say they're only accurate to about 2 inches (as opposed to home plate, which is within half inch precision in many case). Still, these numbers don't rule out the possibility of a change in arm slot, they just don't seal the deal.

Looking at spin movement, dropping 2007 and curveballs, there is a shift that seems to correspond with the "baseline" above, and not much else. Maybe less movement, as discussed earlier, but not a change in arm slot. Similar to the animations above, these layer progressively, but no animated gif this time.