Rich Hill Shelled in 3rd Venezuelan Outing

After a solid debut, it's turned ugly for Rich Hill, pitching for los Tigres de Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League. After falling apart in the 4th inning of his second start (Sunday), Hill returned to the mound Friday night. Against Magallenes, the same team he faced his first time out for Aragua, Hill barely got out of the first inning.

The lefty struck-out one, but gave up six earned runs on five hits and two walks in the first inning. And Rich threw a wild pitch. Granted, only one hit went for extra bases (a double), and one was an infield single.

In the bottom half, two of Hill's Cubs-mates came to the plate to face Victor "They Traded Me for Scott Kazmir" Zambrano. Sam Fuld hit a lead-off home run, and Ronny Cedeno grounded out 1-3 for the 2nd out of the frame.

Hill came out for the 2nd inning, and, like the first, gave up a lead-off single. This time to Edgardo Alfonzo, who is one of the leading hitters in the VWL. Fonzie managed to get caught stealing, but was quickly replaced, courtesy of Hill's third free pass of the night.

Richard Hidalgo was due up, but the game was stopped due to rain. I'll update this post after it resumes. UPDATE play had resumed, neither starter returned. Hill's unofficial ERA is 7.84 in 10.1 innings.

Cubs Decline Blanco's Option

The Cubs did not exercise a $3 million option on back-up catcher Henry Blanco, according to the Sun Times

Although the Cubs on Friday declined to exercise Henry Blanco's $3 million contract option for 2009, the team anticipates re-signing the backup catcher as a free agent for a lower guaranteed salary.

Blanco gets $300k in a buyout and is one of three free agents I think the Cubs will retain.

Colvin Update

A couple weeks ago, Tyler Colvin left Arizona Fall League with elbow problems. Reports ranged from nothing serious to bone spurs that would require surgery. A few days ago, word was he had Tommy John surgery. Scout.com confirmed it (the first confirmation I've seen, at least)

After visiting with team doctors in Chicago a week later, Colvin underwent Tommy John surgery last Sunday after visiting with a specialist in Ohio.

He is looking at “about five months out,” said Oneri Fleita

Guzman Strong, Berg and Ascanio Struggle

Action continues in the Venezuela for Cubs pitching prospects. On Thursday, three were the pitcher of record in their Winter League games.

Angel Guzman made his second start for Magallenes, working five shut-out innings. He left with a 13-0 lead, but the bullpen allowed seven runs to blow the team shut-out.

Meanwhile, Justin Berg and Jose Ascanio had troubles in relief. Caracas bailed Ascanio out, who blew the save in the 9th but got the win. Berg also blew a save, but was eventually charged with the loss for Aragua.

Guzman has now worked eight innings over two starts, allowing just one earned run, with eight K's and two walks. Angel has a great shot at a late inning job for the Cubs in 2009, but I expect the Cubs will stretch him out in Spring Training, since he has the stuff to be a starter.

Berg had been un-scored upon in Winter ball, but gave up four runs in an inning and a third, and allowed an inherited runner to score. He was pulled with one out in the 7th, following a pair of singles. Both of those runners came in to score after Justin left the game. Karma.

Ascanio has been hot and cold as the closer for Caracas. Tonight, he gave up two runs on three hits, blowing a 5-4 lead. But, in the bottom half of the 9th, Rich Garces gave up a three-run walk-off bomb to hand Ascanio the W.

Sources: mlb.com and El Universal

Phils Clinch Ignites the Stove

Hot Stove Season is officially here. The Marlins traded Mike Jacobs to Kansas City for Leo Nunez. And the free agent filings have begun.

Ryan Dempster, Bob Howry, Chad Fox and Jim Edmonds all filed on the first day they could. Only one of those guys should get a call from Hendry's office.

The Cubs can get (or have) better, cheaper and healthier replacements for Howry and Fox.

Edmonds, even if he doesn't retire, shouldn't get a spot on the 2009 Cubs. Unless Felix Pie is traded, he'll probably be in a platoon with Reed Johnson. Pie is out of options, and Johnson is arbitration eligible after signing a one-year deal after being cut loose by the Blue Jays. Of course, neither Johnson or Edmonds were on the Cubs' radar screen last year, so who knows what could happen.

Even with some regression, Dempster is likely to be a solid starter in 2009. No, I didn't think he could cut it, but he did, and then some.

MLB.com notes a few guys have yet to declare

Closer Kerry Wood, first baseman Daryle Ward, catcher Henry Blanco and right-hander Jon Lieber are the team's other potential free agents.

The Cubs need a veteran to complement Geovany Soto, and there's no reason not to retain Henry Blanco's services (Updated news on Blanco).

Daryle Ward was the classic case of a 2-yr. deal for a back-up player not working out. Despite Ward's immense patience at the plate, his value, even at a steep discount, would be minimal, if not negative.

Lieber might be done. He still has good control, but his health is continuing to decline. The frustration he had with his own condition was evident when he left town and called it a year, and later was placed on the 60-day DL.

Kerry Wood is a very interesting case. The other side of the Dempster coin was a big part of the Cubs' success. While my own bias is that closers are over-rated, their role has become ingrained in modern baseball.

For better or for worse, most clubhouses and managers expect, and produce, rigid roles in the bullpen - if at all possible. With that in mind, Wood should be retained. Unless he prices himself out of a realistic deal.

Dempster, Wood and Blanco should stay, if reasonable terms can be reached - none of these guys are worth over-extending, but each would be an important piece of a 3rd straight Central title.

World Series Game 5.5 "Starters"

Ryan Madson will take the ball for the Phillies in the top half of the 7th, according to mlb.com. Grant Balfour was the Rays pitcher when the game was suspended, and is due up fourth against Madson. Balfour may not complete the 6th, and may not throw a pitch. The pitcher's spot is due up first for the Phillies, so a move could happen right away.

From the mlb.com article:

The bottom of the sixth inning could feature a series of moves, starting with Manuel's potential choice of left-handed hitters Geoff Jenkins, Greg Dobbs or Matt Stairs to pinch-hit. Rays manager Joe Maddon could go to lefty David Price, forcing Manuel to send up a right-handed hitter.

McGehee to Brewers

The Brewers claimed Casey McGehee off waivers from the Cubs, according to Rotoworld. McGehee is playing third for Culiacan in Mexico, and made some garbage time starts for the Cubs in 2008.

Jake Peavy - Change in Approach?

Jake Peavy is the hot topic of rumor mill. The Cubs may not line-up well with the Padres, but have the cash, potentially, to make a deal. And they're on his short list of teams he'll accept a trade to. It's a long shot, and not really the greatest idea in the world, but enough to pique my curiosity.

What I don't like about Peavy is the cost and length of the deal. What I like about him is his stuff. I'm just not sure that stuff will stick around, after missing a few starts due to elbow issues in 2008. Still, he's made at least 27 starts since his rookie year.

If anyone picks up his deal, it would probably have two extra hitches - extension of the no trade clause and a pick-up of the final option year.

If the Cubs make the move, Peavy would be on the staff through 2013, at a cost of $82 million. In that final year (at $22 million), Peavy will still just be 32 years old. But, already, he's twice had elbow problems. His DL trip in May/June was after issues that started in late April, (source).

In 2007, scout Carlos Gomez wrote a great piece at Hardball Times on Peavy's "Max Effort" mechanics. Good stuff, at a cost to his body, but he's not as fragile as Rich Harden.

I've noted the quality, and quantity, of Peavy's stuff recently. But he just may be too much risk, for too long.

At the end of 2008, Peavy showed some signs of a different pitch mix. I'm not sure if it's just a blip, a Maddux-esque set-up of guys for 2009, health related or a change in strategy.

Overall Pitch Effectiveness



Effectiveness by Pitch


Note: very small sample size here, which impacts watches the most (takes in the zone). It did go from 1 out of 10 in 2007 to 6 out of 14, for whatever that's worth (nada).









Pitch Selections









Got all that? After the DL stint, against lefties and righties, Peavy started hurling more change-ups. Curves were up against both, but more so to lefties, simply because he throws more to them anyway. Less fastballs to both. Righties starting seeing more cutters and less sliders, the exact opposite for lefties. When you break it down by start, at the end, the curves do start to drop off a little.

Was he feeling better, and able to throw what he wanted? The swapping of the slider/cutter balance to lefties/righties doesn't quite fit that idea, though. Was it simply a different approach?

When I revisit Peavy, I'll take a look at what Gomez discussed - plate location - as well as some more on pitch speed, movement and effectiveness over the final months of 2008, and whatever else pops in (batter hand, count, home/away). And talk more about how wrong or right I am about the health/selection relationship.

Long(er) Break Between Innings

Game 5 continues Wednesday tonight. If Tampa can continue to hang on, the action moves to Florida. With Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena both waking up, we could be in for some more baseball. Which also means you can do some more baseball betting.

Last night, Pena and Longoria both got their first hits of the Series. Eric Hinske pinch hit, after replacing Cliff Floyd on the roster, and hit a home run. The Rays may indeed be waking up, and it may not be too late.

Assuming the Series goes past Game 5, we'll have one or two very exciting games in the safety of the Tropicana Dome. Looking at the Philly weather forecast, this game may get pushed another day (it did). I wouldn't bet on that (I should've), since there are lots of incentives to get the last two games on schedule. Talking about betting, if you're looking for an online sportsbook, check out BetUS.com.

I'll be back later tonight with a post-game review of the pitching to date, all five games. A couple things of interest, which may or may not make the cut, are how Andy Sonnanstine struggled with his control, and how the Phillies have pitched Longoria and Pena.

Sunday Night Notes

The World Series is almost over. For the last two nights, I actually contemplated how I'd keep warm at Wrigley. It truly is Autumn. But, baseball marches on, and it just isn't the Series.

• Friday night, Angel Guzman threw three good innings in Venezuela. It is time for Angel to be a fulltime player in the majors. Health permitting.
• Rich Hill could not escape the 4th inning Sunday in his VWL game. He goes again Friday. Four walks in this one, after a good start the first time around. It could be the extra layoff due to weather issues, or it could just be Rich being Rich.
  
• Jake Peavy's price is pretty high. The Padres will likely end up doing this as a salary dump, which increases the Cubs chances. The Astros and Cardinals don't have the funds, and Atlanta won't part with Tommy Hanson. Peavy is supposedly committed to staying in the NL, and out of New York. I'm not sure he'll be worth it - more on him later this week, I've got something in the works
• The Phillies are poised for the title. Hamels v Kazmir II should finish very much the same. But they play the games for a reason
• Josh Kroeger is hitting very well in Caracas, but he'll be a minor league free agent. I can't see the Cubs giving him a shot. Jason Dubois, Nate Spears, Esmalin Caridad (more on him this week), and a few others, are doing well in Winter ball. Tyler Colvin is hurt. Justin Berg and J.R. Mathes are pitching well.
  

World Series Starter - Jamie Moyer in PITCHf/x

Jamie Moyer finally gets to start a World Series game. Weather permitting, of course.

Moyer's long journey from Cubs draft choice, reaching the majors, back to the minors, a comeback, a great run in Seattle, and, now, playing for his favorite team has been covered ad naseum. I lost count of "Jamie Moyer is so old he blanks" jokes along the way.

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Claims that Moyer "rarely" breaks 85 are flatly false. He never breaks 85. The only time I have him hitting 85.0 are back in 2007 in Petco, which runs hot on the MPH. And that's at 55 ft. from home plate, which is typically faster than what you're used to seeing on radar guns.

Let's put it this way - the guy rarely breaks 84. 82 is a tick above average for Moyer's two- and four-seam fastballs. The cutter is even slower, the change slower still, and the curve, slowest of them all.

What he throws

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	1082	74.8	7.7	8.3	137.6	1,223.0
CU	279	68.7	-5.7	-5.5	137.0	795.2
F2	1626	81.6	7.7	6.2	129.8	1,175.2
F4	351	81.8	3.2	9.6	162.0	1,207.1
FC	1131	79.3	-1.6	5.1	196.0	667.8
	4469	78.6	4.2	6.0	151.4	1,037.2

Spin Movement



Flight Paths



When he throws it

By Count

Vs. LHH

#	B	S	Bats	CH	CU	F2	F4	FC
309	0	0	L	0.0971	0.1036	0.3592	0.0712	0.3689
149	0	1	L	0.0872	0.1074	0.4497	0.0470	0.3087
69	0	2	L	0.1014	0.0870	0.3478	0.0290	0.4348
110	1	0	L	0.1636	0.0182	0.4273	0.0818	0.3091
119	1	1	L	0.1261	0.0588	0.4790	0.0336	0.3025
123	1	2	L	0.2439	0.0894	0.3171	0.0244	0.3252
25	2	0	L	0.0800	0.0000	0.1200	0.2800	0.5200
44	2	1	L	0.2727	0.0000	0.3409	0.1364	0.2500
84	2	2	L	0.3214	0.0119	0.4167	0.0595	0.1905
7	3	0	L	0.0000	0.0000	0.5714	0.2857	0.1429
19	3	1	L	0.2632	0.0000	0.2632	0.1579	0.3158
38	3	2	L	0.2105	0.0000	0.1842	0.1579	0.4474

Vs. RHH

#	B	S	Bats	CH	CU	F2	F4	FC
873	0	0	R	0.2176	0.1031	0.3906	0.0779	0.2108
398	0	1	R	0.2186	0.0854	0.3141	0.1809	0.2010
147	0	2	R	0.3197	0.0408	0.2993	0.1565	0.1837
371	1	0	R	0.3504	0.0350	0.3504	0.0512	0.2129
356	1	1	R	0.2865	0.0590	0.2865	0.1152	0.2528
283	1	2	R	0.3039	0.0495	0.3004	0.0671	0.2792
144	2	0	R	0.2778	0.0069	0.5556	0.0069	0.1528
212	2	1	R	0.2972	0.0094	0.3726	0.0330	0.2877
262	2	2	R	0.3206	0.0458	0.3092	0.0573	0.2672
46	3	0	R	0.1957	0.0000	0.6304	0.0870	0.0870
99	3	1	R	0.2323	0.0303	0.4848	0.0000	0.2525
182	3	2	R	0.2967	0.0440	0.3736	0.0330	0.2527

By Start



Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	1082	167	915	0.5240	0.2981	2.9084	0.3651	0.1183	0.3901	0.2430
CU	279	75	204	0.3620	0.2376	1.9180	0.3763	0.0609	0.3046	0.5429
F2	1626	414	1212	0.4164	0.0857	1.8865	0.3487	0.1611	0.3012	0.3686
F4	351	76	275	0.3248	0.0439	3.9375	0.2051	0.1311	0.2258	0.2917
FC	1131	364	767	0.4182	0.1015	1.4424	0.3652	0.1751	0.2953	0.3680
	4469	1096	3373	0.4323	0.1573	2.0240	0.3473	0.1457	0.3137	0.3447

Moyer throws strikes, gets ahead, and gets his whiffs with the change. He's throwing less curveballs and four-seamers this Fall, increasing his reliance on the Change-Up/Two-Seamer/Cutter triad. When he does throw the curve, it regularly gets part of the strike zone, and a lot of called strikes as a result of hitters laying off it.

Early in the count, lefties see more cutters, righties more change-ups. When he's ahead, they both get the off-speed pitch. Or the more off-speed pitch. Otherwise, the pitch mix is pretty similar.

Moyer faces Matt Garza (profile), in a cross-generational match-up.

Iowa Cubs Need a Manager

Pat Listasch has joined the Washington Nationals as third base coach. Listasch, who became the AAA manager for the Cubs after Mike Quade became Lou Piniella's third base coach, joins former Cubs manager Jim Riggleman as two of several new additions to Manny Acta's staff. Riggleman, most recently bench coach and then interim manager for the Mariners, may remain in Seattle if offered the manager's job full time.

Angel Guzman-First Winter Start and PITCHf/x Update

Cubs pitcher Angel Guzman just completed three innings of work for Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League. No pitch count shown, but Angel struck out four, allowing one earned on four hits and no walks. Guzman leaves the game with a 7-1 lead.

Here's a quick summary of what he's thrown in the majors, 2008 plus a couple of his 2007 games, from PITCHf/x. Sorry for the color mis-match on the spin movement aggregate vs. scatter (inset, image below).

Table is sortable, images should be clicked for larger versions

What he throws

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CU	33	79.7	4.6	-6.6	215.2	920.5
F2	33	94.8	-8.7	6.1	235.4	1,438.7
F4	95	95.1	-5.4	8.9	211.3	1,416.9
FC	26	90.9	-0.1	3.8	192.6	570.8
	187	91.7	-3.5	4.9	213.7	1,215.5

Spin Movement



Flight Paths



The curve has a lot of movement, and seems to be 5 MPH faster than it should be. He gets nearly a 47% whiff rate on it (small sample warning) and the four seamer over 20%, which is pretty darn good. The cutter isn't doing a whole lot of damage yet, but that's a pretty severe pitch if he can command it.

Hopefully Guzman continue to pitch well this Winter, and maybe he'll get a crack at the rotation in the Spring.

Tyler Colvin Headed for Surgery

You may have noticed the lack of change in Tyler Colvin's AFL stats, and now we know why. From Jason Grey at ESPN:.

On an additional injury note, Cubs outfielder Tyler Colvin has been pulled from the AFL due to a bone spur in his elbow, and he's scheduled to have surgery this week.

Found this at Throwing Injuries:

If the inflammation generated by the collisions of the bones is not quieted by anti-inflammatory medications then a simple surgery can remove the spurs. The surgery is most often arthroscopic and the recovery a few months.

Colvin's obviously not a pitcher, so he'll probably be ready for Spring Training.

Ronny Cedeno Reports to Winter Ball (update #2)

According to Aragua's official site, Ronny Cedeno has joined fellow Cubs Rich Hill, Sam Fuld, Jonathon Mota and Justin Berg with los Tigres.

Hill, after a rain out on Monday, is pitching tonight, his second start in the Venezuelan League More rain. Hill has been pushed back to Sunday. Check out the second photo at this link. Nice tarp. Cedeno, according to Aragua, took infield and BP. No mention of when he'd join the line-up.

UPDATED 10/25

Ronny is set to play on Wednesday, and, after Sunday's start, Rich Hill will go again on Halloween.

Game 2 Starter - James Shields PITCHf/x

James Shields faces Brett Myers in Game 2 Thursday night. Again, I've covered Shields before, but this is a more comprehensive and accurate set of IDs. Brett Myers will be later.

Four-seam, two-seam, change (split-ish sometimes), cutter (slutter) and a curve. I'm amazed how many swings he gets on the curve, and only that and the change are plus pitches. His fastball isn't great, and the two-seamer tends to run out of the zone. The cutter is above average, and is actually an attractive pitch for hitters, for better or for worse.

Against lefties, Shields will throw a lot of off-speed pitches, to start an at bat and, especially, when he's ahead. Pretty much the same story with righties, but a bit of a different mix.

Click images to enlarge; tables are sortable on cubsfx.com - won't work in feeds or other sites

What he throws

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CU	393	77.7	7.4	-5.2	233.9	1,011.1
F2	362	91.1	-8.8	6.4	233.8	1,423.9
F4	1355	91.4	-7.0	9.6	216.1	1,557.1
FC	813	88.1	0.9	4.9	169.5	698.2
FS	1068	82.8	-8.4	3.7	240.2	1,105.0
	3991	87.1	-4.5	5.3	216.4	1,195.3

Spin Movement





Flight Paths



When he throws it

By Count vs LHH

#	B	S	Bats	CH	CU	F2	F4	FC
558	0	0	L	0.2097	0.0412	0.1505	0.4301	0.1685
251	0	1	L	0.2351	0.1793	0.0797	0.1036	0.4024
115	0	2	L	0.5217	0.0696	0.0696	0.1304	0.2087
231	1	0	L	0.3593	0.0130	0.0996	0.3723	0.1558
220	1	1	L	0.3409	0.1273	0.0591	0.1091	0.3636
169	1	2	L	0.5740	0.0651	0.0355	0.1006	0.2249
75	2	0	L	0.1200	0.0133	0.1067	0.6800	0.0800
128	2	1	L	0.3672	0.0313	0.0547	0.3516	0.1953
141	2	2	L	0.5106	0.0709	0.0780	0.1277	0.2128
24	3	0	L	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.8750	0.0000
51	3	1	L	0.0392	0.0000	0.0980	0.7451	0.1176
80	3	2	L	0.3500	0.0250	0.0375	0.4750	0.1125

By Count vs RHH

#	B	S	Bats	CH	CU	F2	F4	FC
543	0	0	R	0.0589	0.1179	0.0737	0.5488	0.2007
246	0	1	R	0.1463	0.3130	0.1463	0.2073	0.1870
115	0	2	R	0.4087	0.1478	0.1565	0.1478	0.1391
215	1	0	R	0.2047	0.0372	0.0744	0.4837	0.2000
212	1	1	R	0.2547	0.2170	0.1226	0.1887	0.2170
165	1	2	R	0.4364	0.1576	0.0727	0.2000	0.1333
70	2	0	R	0.0571	0.0000	0.0429	0.7143	0.1857
105	2	1	R	0.2952	0.0381	0.0762	0.3238	0.2667
134	2	2	R	0.5149	0.1119	0.0522	0.1716	0.1493
14	3	0	R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.8571	0.0714
37	3	1	R	0.0811	0.0000	0.0270	0.8108	0.0811
92	3	2	R	0.2935	0.0109	0.0326	0.4783	0.1848

By Start



Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CU	393	135	258	0.4173	0.2256	2.5	0.3817	0.0992	0.2716	0.3467
F2	362	191	171	0.4088	0.0811	3.7	0.2928	0.1575	0.3008	0.3302
F4	1355	619	736	0.4362	0.1066	1.4	0.5077	0.1284	0.2264	0.3605
FC	813	449	364	0.4822	0.1378	2.6	0.4502	0.1328	0.2662	0.2541
CH	1068	649	419	0.5758	0.3610	2.9	0.3530	0.1021	0.5022	0.2891
	3991	2043	1948	0.4786	0.2031	2.1	0.4227	0.1220	0.3299	0.3183

Ryno in AZCentral Interview

Current Solar Sox batting coach Ryne Sandberg chats with Nick Piecoro.

What part of managing has surprised you most? "At the minor league level you wear a lot of different hats. You're the third base coach. You work with the hitters a little bit. You run the offense from the third base box, then come in the dugout and run the defense, positioning of the outfielders, defensive plays, bunt plays. There's a lot of stuff going on. The first month of my first year there, things were going pretty quickly. I saw that by halfway through the first year, by the All-Star break, things were slowing down and coming more naturally. I was surprised by that process and how well I took to it."

More at AZCentral.com

Big Night for a Lefty Pitcher. And the World Series Starts.

Update Rained out. Figures.

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Rich Hill takes the hill Wednesday Night for los Tigres de Aragua, in the Venezuelan Winter League. Nice picture at the link of Hill ripping off a circle-change. His first outing was a success, working into the 6th inning without a single walk (more on Rich's debut).

Tonight's match-up is against Margarita. Their roster includes Henry Blanco. I hope he gets to play. Aragua features lead-off man Sam Fuld, and prospect Jonathon Mota has started a few games, and pitcher Justin Berg has had some quality innings out of the 'pen.

If you want to kill time before the World Series starts, and not watch all the pre-game festivities, you can probably watch Aragua, or another Venezuelan game, at the league's website. Scroll down to the left side, the video takes a moment sometimes.

Scott Kazmir - Game 1 Starter PITCHf/x

Scott Kazmir gets the nod for Game 1 against the Phillies, Wednesday night in St. Pete. Start time is about 45 minutes after whatever they say it is.

I've looked at Kazmir before, but now I have ID'd all his pitches, and dropped the distinction between fastballs. I believe he only throws a four seamer, which he may cut on occasion. His out pitch is his change/splitter, and he's got a pretty good slider, too. The IDs below are more accurate than my earlier edition, I've got maybe two question marks in the whole bunch. I tossed three pitches that were either obviously thrown by someone else, or just seriously out of whack. Leaves 3999 pitches.

What he throws

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	534	80.0	8.3	4.6	120.1	1,102.4
FA	2929	92.8	6.5	10.4	148.4	1,626.0
SL	536	83.3	0.0	3.9	181.9	509.2
	3999	89.8	5.8	8.8	149.1	1,406.4

Spin Movement



Flight Paths



When he throws it

By count

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	FA LHH	SL LHH	RHH	CH RHH	FA RHH	SL RHH
960	0	0	218	0.0092	0.7523	0.2385	742	0.1792	0.7938	0.0270
474	0	1	98	0.0000	0.6633	0.3367	376	0.1782	0.7128	0.1090
271	0	2	52	0.0000	0.7885	0.2115	219	0.0639	0.7078	0.2283
399	1	0	90	0.0000	0.6778	0.3222	309	0.2945	0.6926	0.0129
399	1	1	89	0.0000	0.6742	0.3258	310	0.2323	0.6774	0.0903
410	1	2	78	0.0000	0.5641	0.4359	332	0.0964	0.6145	0.2892
151	2	0	25	0.0000	0.9200	0.0800	126	0.1587	0.8254	0.0159
206	2	1	41	0.0000	0.9268	0.0732	165	0.2000	0.7879	0.0121
332	2	2	46	0.0000	0.6304	0.3696	286	0.1469	0.6538	0.1993
59	3	0	10	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	49	0.0408	0.9592	0.0000
107	3	1	20	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	87	0.0690	0.9195	0.0115
231	3	2	27	0.0000	0.7037	0.2963	204	0.0980	0.8382	0.0637

By Game



Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	534	2	532	0.4176	0.3453	3.1	0.3801	0.0880	0.2749	0.3498
FA	2929	570	2359	0.4940	0.2267	2.1	0.4708	0.1181	0.3135	0.3031
SL	536	222	314	0.4795	0.3074	5.2	0.3153	0.0970	0.3379	0.2130
	3999	794	3205	0.4819	0.2512	2.5	0.4379	0.1113	0.3118	0.2998

Lefties see tons of sliders, and no change-ups (splitters, I think). He actually works the zone quite a bit with the change, and gets not only his best whiff rate, but his best watch rate (takes in the zone). The fastball hammers the zone, and has an impressive whiff rate for a heater. To lefties, he'll throws the slider in any count that's even or ahead. To a righty, he's more likely to throw a change than a slider when he falls behind, but, if you've got two strikes, and the count isn't full, Kazmir will throw you a slider 1 out of 4 times.

Kazmir faces Cole Hamels, who I've covered a lot already (click his name for more).

Prior's Agent Plays Broken Record

In today's ESPN blog post from Buster Olney

Mark Prior, who had a second, less-invasive surgery on his right shoulder earlier this year, is in the midst of a throwing program and should be ready for the start of the 2009 season, said his agent, John Boggs. Prior is expected to file for free agency. "He said he feels good, that his shoulder has never felt better," said Boggs.

Until I see him complete a few rounds of the towel drill, color me skeptical.

I'm sure this has nothing to do with the fact Mark has no contract for 2009.

Add this from MLB.com

"He feels really good right now. He's at the beginning stages of his rehabilitation. He's playing catch, but he's not at the point where he's airing it out yet," said Boggs, who did not want to set a timetable as to when Prior might be game-ready.

And the picture is a little clearer.

Midst of a throwing program = playing catch with the neighbor's kid
Should be ready for the start of the 2009 season = Has already made sure his cable provider will carry the MLB network

Also, I love the "less invasive surgery" line. Reminds me of something. A few years after having open-heart surgery, my Dad had prostate surgery. I was concerned, but he said not to be, as the trans-urethral procedure was "non-invasive". To this day, I wonder what could be more invasive than that.

With Hendry Signed, First Hints at '09

Jim Hendry is already talking to the press about his off-season plans. No skipping a beat for Trader Jim.

A couple of things from the article, nothing surprising .... Expect Kerry Wood and Ryan Dempster to return to their closer and starter roles, respectively. Hendry expressed some caution related to the length of the contract. If Wood wants big money and multiple years, that could, and should, be a problem.

Quality closers and relievers are valuable, but it seems that anything over two years for a bullpen guy gets dicey. Ryan Dempster, on the other hand, could easily land a four year deal. I don't have a well formed opinion on Dempster and a lengthy deal, but I feel pretty strongly about Woody.

Felix Pie, out of minor league options, will make the team, or get traded. Or hurt, according to Hendry.

"Without any kind of injury or significant change, he'll have a very good chance to make the ballclub out of Spring Training."

Come to think of it, Jim Hendry does slightly resemble Tonya Harding. Watch your knees, Felix.

Don't expect Edmonds back, but Hendry said he told Fukudome not to freak if he arrives at camp to find, say, Adam Dunn*, standing in his spot.

"I did tell him we have a lot of faith in him, and we think he's going to be the player not only who we scouted, but who we saw in the first half," Hendry said. "But we would go about our business, and if the opportunity arises to add another outfielder, we will. He knows he'll have to earn his everyday status."

So, an outfield stable of Soriano, Pie, Johnson, Fukudome and ____________, and that assumes Reed Johnson sticks. It better be someone really good.

Here's a post with some info on rumor targets, and related Cubs.

Eric Seidman has two recent posts at Fangraphs.com on the corner outfield market.

Left field
Right field

Note the lack of guys under 30. Adam Dunn is one of them. Ahem.




*that's my own wishful speculation

Jim Hendry Extended Through 2012

Cubs General Manger Jim Hendry has signed a contract extension, which will keep him on the Cubs payroll for four more years. No waiting for the sale of the team, the Cubs wisely got the deal done shortly after refusing a request by the Mariners to interview Hendry.

From Cubs.com:

Hendry, who enters his 15th season with the organization, has been the club's general manager since July 5, 2002. With more than six years in the position, he already is the third-longest tenured general manager in franchise history, trailing only John Holland (1957-1975) and James Gallagher (1940-49). The club is 537-513 (.511) with Hendry as general manager, including four winning records in his six full seasons.

David Price Hits Prime Time

With a win and a save in the postseason, before getting either in the regular season, David Price is becoming a known commodity. The super prospect out of Vanderbilt closed out the ALCS Sunday night in Tampa/St. Pete.

I've reviewed Price before, in part, and I've updated all 270 of his PITCHf/x recorded tosses. Two changes here - I've re-labled the cutter as a slider, and found what looks to be a trio of change-ups from Price's start in Baltimore.

Simply put, Price throws hard, throws a ton of strikes, and has blown hitters away with a hard slider. As you go through the numbers below, note the velocity, and, in the pitch count table, note the lack of 2-0 and 3-0 counts. Even the 2-1 and 3-1 counts are a rarity.

Keep ahead of hitters, and, even with just two pitches, good night. I'm not sure Price is ready to be converted into a starter, but, as a reliever, he's lights out. I wouldn't be surprised to see him retain the closer's role in the World Series.

What he throws

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	3	86.5	10.4	6.0	120.0	1,465.8
FA	185	95.2	5.3	7.7	145.8	1,278.0
SL	82	87.8	-0.4	2.2	187.6	331.3
	270	92.8	3.7	6.0	158.2	992.6

Spin Movement



Flight Paths



When he throws it

By Count

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	FA LHH	SL LHH	RHH	CH RHH	FA RHH	SL RHH
64	0	0	24	.0000	.7083	.2917	40	.0250	.7250	.2500
33	0	1	14	.0000	.5000	.5000	19	.1053	.6316	.2632
14	0	2	5	.0000	1.0000	.0000	9	.0000	.8889	.1111
27	1	0	9	.0000	.7778	.2222	18	.0000	.7222	.2778
31	1	1	13	.0000	.6154	.3846	18	.0000	.6111	.3889
35	1	2	17	.0000	.8824	.1176	18	.0000	.7778	.2222
5	2	0	1	.0000	.0000	1.0000	4	.0000	1.0000	.0000
11	2	1	3	.0000	1.0000	.0000	8	.0000	.5000	.5000
23	2	2	8	.0000	.3750	.6250	15	.0000	.3333	.6667
1	3	0	0				1	.0000	1.0000	.0000
6	3	1	2	.0000	1.0000	.0000	4	.0000	.7500	.2500
20	3	2	9	.0000	.7778	.2222	11	.0000	.6364	.3636

By Game




Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	3	0	3	.3333	.0000		0.6667	.0000	.0000	.5000
FA	185	74	111	.4865	.1778	3.0	.4108	.1027	.3394	.3026
SL	82	31	51	.5244	.4651	2.8	.4512	.1220	.3556	.2703
	270	105	165	.4963	.2687	3.0	.4259	.1074	.3419	.2957

Jon Lester - Stronger. Faster. Better?

Jon Lester has gotten stronger as the season, and post-season, have progressed.

Before looking at that trend, here's a quick PITCHf/x primer on the cancer survivor who threw a no-hitter. He'll face Matt Garza in Game 7 of the ALCS tonight.

What he throws Change, curve, two-seam, four-seam, cutter.

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	162	84.1	7.8	6.7	131.2	1,241.5
CU	731	76.4	-5.0	-5.0	135.9	783.4
F2	849	91.7	7.7	5.1	124.0	1,219.6
F4	1503	93.4	3.9	9.3	157.2	1,343.6
FC	953	88.8	-1.1	4.9	193.8	673.4
	4198	88.7	2.1	4.9	154.1	1,064.9

Spin Movement



Flight Paths




When he throws it

By Count

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	CU LHH	F2 LHH	F4 LHH	SL LHH	RHH	CH RHH	CU RHH	F2 RHH	F4 RHH	FC RHH
1094	0	0	305	.0000	.1344	.2066	.5082	.1508	789	.0456	.1369	.1888	.4639	.1648
501	0	1	145	.0000	.2345	.4276	.2138	.1241	356	.1208	.2247	.1208	.2163	.3174
219	0	2	60	.0000	.2333	.1833	.5167	.0667	159	.0063	.2013	.0377	.4591	.2956
468	1	0	128	.0000	.1172	.3750	.2422	.2656	340	.0794	.1588	.2324	.2206	.3088
434	1	1	123	.0000	.1951	.4878	.2114	.1057	311	.1029	.2283	.1865	.1672	.3151
397	1	2	118	.0000	.3475	.2542	.2966	.1017	279	.0108	.3297	.0430	.3369	.2796
183	2	0	50	.0000	.0200	.1800	.7000	.1000	133	.0226	.0226	.3008	.3835	.2707
226	2	1	60	.0000	.1833	.4833	.2000	.1333	166	.0482	.1145	.1747	.2470	.4157
312	2	2	94	.0000	.2128	.2553	.3936	.1383	218	.0138	.2523	.0872	.3670	.2798
67	3	0	20	.0000	.0000	.0000	1.0000	.0000	47	.0000	.0000	.0851	.9149	.0000
109	3	1	29	.0000	.0000	.2759	.5862	.1379	80	.0125	.0250	.3750	.4000	.1875
188	3	2	44	.0000	.0455	.2955	.5227	.1364	144	.0347	.0833	.1597	.4583	.2639

By Start (>50 pitches)




Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	162	0	162	.3395	.2364	5.3	.3210	.0864	.2091	.3846
CU	731	203	528	.4159	.2862	2.0	.4186	.0944	.3153	.4444
F2	849	357	492	.5253	.1345	2.7	.4417	.1343	.3713	.2800
F4	1503	453	1050	.4285	.1211	1.8	.4145	.1284	.3000	.3900
FC	953	163	790	.5456	.2000	2.4	.3379	.1322	.4723	.3106
	4198	1176	3022	.4690	.1737	2.2	.3997	.1229	.3552	.3600

---

Here are Lester's speed charts. First for all parks, and then a few samples to control for between park effects (but not within park effects).












Even without data correction, it does seem likely that Lester is gaining strength, or has improved mechanics. The extra speed may help him miss a few extra bats. There is a mild correlation between his max pitch speed and whiff rates.

With one exception in the regular season, and one in the postseason, Lester has been solid since his apparent bump in velocity, which came after his shortest outing as a starter (2.1 innings at Toronto).

It's hard to say if he's any better with the couple ticks on the radar gun (or PITCHf/x cameras), but he certainly didn't get any worse.

Jake Peavy f/x and Cubs Trade Prospects (updated)

Jake Peavy is the hot commodity on the trade market, already. The Padres are looking for a couple starting pitchers and a centerfielder. (Update) middle infielders (according to GM Kevin Towers). We're talking major league ready ballplayers. The Padres will want players who will remain under their control for a few years, too. What do the Cubs have in that regard? Perhaps a fair amount, but not enough.

Felix Pie (never mind)
Sean Marshall
Randy Wells
Angel Guzman
Kevin Hart
Donald Veal
Update:
Oh, we've got plenty of middle infielders. Theriot, Barney, Mota, Cedeno, Fontenot, Thomas and on and on. Are the prospects major league ready? Will a player who already has service time be of interest to San Diego? Can I safely assume Kahlil Greene and his declining skills and lousy contract come with Peavy?

Problem here is the centerfielder, and None of the Cubs pitching prospects are that hot, with the possible exception of Guzman, who, despite elbow surgery, still has electric stuff. Sean Marshall is looking like a reliable mid/back rotation guy, and the rest are rather shaky.

As far as centerfielders go, Pie is the only quasi-realistic candidate I can come up with. Tyler Colvin is not close to being ready, Sam Fuld is a 6th or 7th OF at best, and 4-A bats Micah Hoffpauir and Josh Kroeger don't look like centerfielders.

I'm just pulling that list from my, umm, back pocket, and there are other pitchers. Esmalin Caridad, currently with the Mesa AFL club, has some potential, and will be the subject of an upcoming post.

So, although Jake Peavy and his Cy Young resume aren't likely to be headed to Chicago, a PITCHf/x scouting report is in order. First thing to know about Peavy is arm slot. He'll drop WAY down about once per game, and will sling a little lower than normal quite a bit. I'll gloss over those facts in this analysis. Pitch ID's are my own, not Gameday's.

Click images for larger version, and the tables are sortable.

What He Throws (Fastball [includes two- and four-seamers] "FA", Change [splitter?] "CH", Curveball "CU", Slider "SL", Cutter/Slutter "FC")

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	327	85.7	-6.6	3.8	233.7	951.9
CU	107	76.6	6.0	-5.0	229.3	852.8
FA	3100	94.4	-7.6	9.1	219.4	1,594.8
FC	1233	87.3	2.0	4.1	154.8	630.4
SL	627	82.3	6.3	2.0	151.7	822.9
	5394	90.5	-3.4	6.5	197.9	1,230.9

Spin Movement (deviation, in inches, from path of spin-less ball; catcher's view)



Flight Paths




When he throws it

By Count

#	B	S	LHH	CH LHH	CU LHH	FA LHH	FC LHH	SL LHH	RHH	CH RHH	CU RHH	FA RHH	FC RHH	SL RHH
1341	0	0	675	0.0830	0.0222	0.6978	0.1748	0.0222	666	0.0225	0.0045	0.6847	0.1967	0.0916
673	0	1	325	0.0831	0.0554	0.5015	0.3385	0.0215	348	0.0517	0.0057	0.5833	0.2213	0.1379
329	0	2	158	0.0063	0.0506	0.5506	0.1899	0.2025	171	0.0175	0.0234	0.4912	0.0819	0.3860
535	1	0	302	0.1887	0.0099	0.5265	0.2583	0.0166	233	0.1116	0.0043	0.5408	0.2704	0.0730
555	1	1	299	0.0836	0.0368	0.4381	0.3980	0.0435	256	0.0625	0.0039	0.5313	0.2188	0.1836
562	1	2	300	0.0233	0.0567	0.5033	0.2233	0.1933	262	0.0344	0.0153	0.4427	0.1298	0.3779
177	2	0	101	0.0693	0.0000	0.7129	0.2079	0.0099	76	0.0526	0.0000	0.6053	0.3026	0.0395
294	2	1	165	0.0909	0.0121	0.5879	0.2909	0.0182	129	0.0465	0.0078	0.6744	0.1705	0.1008
472	2	2	260	0.0231	0.0423	0.4192	0.3692	0.1462	212	0.0802	0.0142	0.4340	0.1792	0.2925
51	3	0	26	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	25	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000
113	3	1	59	0.0339	0.0000	0.7966	0.1695	0.0000	54	0.0741	0.0000	0.7593	0.1296	0.0370
292	3	2	160	0.0063	0.0188	0.5625	0.3063	0.1063	132	0.0379	0.0000	0.6439	0.1667	0.1515

By Start




Results

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	327	204	123	0.5076	0.2952	4.6	0.3792	0.0765	0.3645	0.2581
CU	107	88	19	0.3271	0.3143	5.5	0.2243	0.0748	0.2169	0.2917
FA	3100	1603	1497	0.4358	0.1621	1.6	0.3881	0.1548	0.2931	0.3392
FC	1233	746	487	0.5012	0.2362	2.0	0.3341	0.1687	0.3873	0.2718
SL	627	189	438	0.5311	0.3874	3.0	0.2919	0.0925	0.4797	0.3443
	5394	2830	2564	0.4640	0.2213	2.0	0.3608	0.1444	0.3419	0.3196

Peavy throws hard, upper 90's at times, has a lot of solid, but not spectacular, pitches. He can throw them all very well, and, as mentioned above, from multiple arm angles.

Folks will point to his stats away from Petco as a red flag, along with the length and value of his contract. But the biggest obstacle to the Cubs will be what they can offer in return.

Hill Picks Up Win, Fuld and Berg Contribute

Rich Hill made his debut in Venezuela Friday night in Maracay. Rich threw 5.1 innings to get the decision in Aragua's first win of the 2008/2009 season. Hill didn't walk any batters, and struck out six, allowing two earned on four hits.

The first run Hill allowed came in the 4th inning, when Edgardo Alfonzo homered. Hill did strike out the side around Fonzie's homer and a single. Magallanes added their 2nd run in the 5th, on a sac fly.

Hill started the 6th by striking out Tony Gwynn for the third time. But that was his last batter of the night. Hill got his other ten outs evenly from the ground and the air. I haven't been able to get a pitch count, but he Hill threw under 60 pitches, and faced only 19 batters, which was just three over the minimum.

Sam Fuld made his third start in center and at the top of the order. Fuld finished the night 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored, and was picked-off first.

Cubs minor leaguer Justin Berg came into a tight situation in the eight inning, with los Tigres holding a two-run lead. Inheriting runners on the corners with no outs, Berg got a double play ball (which plated a runner) and got the put-out on Alfonzo's pop-up to finish the inning. Berg also got the first out of the 9th.

Plenty of Cubs in action tonight, including Josh Kroeger, who homered for Caracas. Updates posted regularly at the Winter Cubs post.

Josh Kroeger Playing for Caracas

I just noticed Josh Kroeger is playing for Caracas. I'm not sure of his status, I believe he may be(come) a Minor League Free Agent, but, since MLB.com still shows him as a Cub, I'll track him over here with the rest.

Meanwhile, in Maracay, Rich Hill just threw his first inning, 1-2-3.

AFL Update: Veal Wild, Spears Hot

The Mesa Solar Sox and Peoria Saguaros faced off Friday afternoon in Peoria. The 18-10 shoot-out featured some good, and some bad, from Cubs prospects, with the Solar Sox ending up on top.

The Sox day included a 7-run inning, only to be topped by an 8-spot in the 9th. The Saguaros committed six errors, and gave up 21 hits and six walks.

Donald Veal, being looked at as a lefty reliever, got obliterated in the 6th inning. Getting only one out, Veal allowed five runs, three earned, on just a single hit.

Veal walked the first three hitters he faced, before giving up a single and another walk. Those four walks were the only by a Solar Sox pitcher.

Veal was yanked after two runners had scored, but another single and catcher Steve Clevenger's error and passed ball let all of Veals' runners score. The 9-5 lead turned into a 10-9 deficit.

Clevenger did contribute to the offense, despite two costly mistakes with the glove. The AFL veteran drew three walks, and knocked an RBI double in the 9th.

Nate Spears, who also committed his first error of the Fall season, continued to rake. With two doubles, a single, two runs and two RBI, Spears actually lowered his OPS to 1.471. Not a bad start to the short season.

Tyler Colvin and Darwin Barney did not play, and neither have put up good numbers to date.

For OPS and ERA for all Cubs Fall/Winter players, please see my Winter Cubs post, which is updated daily.

Rich Hill Interview

It's in Spanish, so you may want this translated version.

With 28 years of age, has a promising future in baseball and to bring back immunity for his organization agreed to send him to Venezuela to face a hot engine training camps in 2009. "It's an honor to come to play in this league, I know many of the players who are here because of me and I have found sometimes shared on computers in the United States.

I recommend the Spanish version.

Previewing Rich Hill's Venezuelan Debut

So, this is what a PITCHf/x addict does in the Winter.

Rich Hill, now off the disabled list, has been sent to Venezuela for Winter ball. Rich is the third starter for Tigres de Aragua, and makes his debut Friday night (10/17) against Navegantes del Magallanes. The game will take place in Maracay.

You can see the full roster for Magallanes at mlb.com. A lot of the players listed may not participate until later in the season, so the line-ups are more relevant. Here's how they lined-up in their first two games.

Tony Gwynn Jr. CF
Richard Paz DH
Edgardo Alfonzo 3B
Richard Hidalgo RF
Jay Gibbons LF
Jesus Merchan 2B
Tomas Perez 1B
Salomon Manriquez/Gustavo Molina (batted 9th in Game 2) C
Elvis Andrus SS (batted 8th in Game 2)

That's actually a pretty interesting line-up. Let's break that down a bit, by age and slash stats (avg/obp/slg), keeping in mind some guys could be platooned against Hill on Friday.

Player	Age	MLB	MiLB
Gwynn	26	248/300/298	273/345/342
Paz	31		274/392/360
Alfonzo	34	284/357/425	299/367/423
Hidalgo	33	269/345/490	282/324/440
Gibbons	31	260/314/453	325/396/555
Merchan	27		295/344/389
Perez	34	240/290/342	260/312/355
Manriquez	26		256/308/407
Molina	26	118/162/147	237/294/345
Andrus	19		275/343/361

Some career minor leaguers, former big leaguers whose best days are far behind, and one super prospect. And it won't be first-look in every case. Alfonzo went 0-3 against Hill on 7/25/05. Not sure about any minor league match-ups, but it's possible.

A good performance this Winter by Hill could be of huge value to the Cubs. He could contribute to the club, but a resurgent Hill could be an attractive(ish) trading chip.

All stats from baseball-reference.com, rosters and line-ups from mlb.com

Two Strike Fouls

Listening to the 5th game of the ALCS, the Tampa broadcast, while Scott Kazmir enjoys the home run festival. One of the announcers said a key for Kazmir is reducing foul balls on strike two, since it can pile-up the pitch count.

Sure, a foul ball means another pitch when all the other outcomes don't. Which is a little misleading. If I get you to foul one off, then whiff, is that more or less pitches if I gave up a line drive single on that foul ball, instead? The real question is, why am I pitching?

Back to Kazmir. For strike two counts only, all PITCHf/x recorded games, for pitchers with at least 300 qualifying counts. Looking at swings, and hit batters, too.

Group Averages
In Play	0.243
Foul	0.242
Whiff	0.118
Homer	0.007
HBP	0.002

So, there you have it. That's from a sample of 222,000 + pitches. How does Kazmir compare? His sample includes 1212 pitches.

Scott	Kazmir
In Play	0.202
Foul	0.278
Whiff	0.144
Homer	0.012
HBP	0.003

Figuring about 20 strike-two counts per start, the 3.5% difference between Kazmir and the group means about 2-5 extra pitches per month. It could cost him an inning or two over the course of the season, so I'd only worry about it coming all at once.

Since Kazmir ranked 42 out of 330 pitchers, perhaps he isn't extreme enough.

Here are the top 5 in fouls on strike two.

Dave	Borkowski	0.331
Scott	Baker	0.326
Russ	Springer	0.319
Rafael	Betancourt	0.314
Jonathan	Papelbon	0.310

And the bottom 5

Shawn	Chacon	0.182
Kason	Gabbard	0.182
Daniel	Cabrera	0.181
Adam	Wainwright	0.181
John	Grabow	0.169

So, for an extreme split, let's take .32 and .18. That's about 3 more pitches per start as a result of foul balls on strike 2.

So, sure, there can be an effect, but pretty small in any case.

For a guy like Scott Kazmir, who is in the top 15% of this group, and presumably the league, it is probably a stretch to make it a key to his game.

Cubs on Jake Peavy's Short List

Jake Peavy is willing to play for the Cubs, if they can work a trade with the Padres. The LA Times reports Peavy's agent has submitted the list.

[Barry] Axelrod said he recently gave Towers a list of teams to which Peavy might consent to being traded. On that list were the Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals.

Peavy has at least $63 million remaining on his contract - and as much as $81 million.

In other news, in the same article, this just in

The Chicago Cubs paid the Dodgers around $4,000 to repair the water pipes outside of the visiting clubhouse at Dodger Stadium that their players damaged

More Winter Cubs Assignments

Cubs.com is now catching up with the Fall and Winter teams. They have some news on the Dominican leaguers, and I'll be adding the updates to this page, which I keep updated with rosters/stats. Here's a little update on Rich Hill I posted last night, while we're on the subject. I need to figure out a way to watch/listen/follow Friday night's game in Venezuela. Live audio in Spanish available, thanks to commenter "n".

Rich Hill in Venezuela (updated link and photo)

The Venezuelan league got underway today, and the rosters were filled out. Rich Hill joins several Cubs in the league, and in Aragua in particular.

Here's photographic evidence.



Hill throws Friday in Maracay, according to los Tigres' web site, and Google Translate.

You can find all the Winter and Fall Cubs in this post, which I'll keep current with roster updates and some stats.