Saturday, November 29, 2008

Are Jake Peavy, Garrett Olson and Felix Pie on the Move?

Jeff Zrebiec and Peter Schmuck have news that the Orioles could be Kevin Towers' third team.

From the Baltimore Sun:

The Orioles have revisited trade talks with the Chicago Cubs about multi-tool outfielder Felix Pie, according to industry sources, and could end up as the third team in a three-way deal that would send marquee right-hander Jake Peavy from the San Diego Padres to Chicago....Sources said that the Cubs are looking for a young pitcher in return with one possible scenario being the Orioles sending starter Garrett Olson to Chicago, who then could trade the left-hander to the Padres as part of a package for Peavy.


Interesting. The Orioles and the Cubs certainly have the Andy MacPhail connection, and the deep knowledge of each others' prospects from all the Brain Roberts jabber last year.

Tim Dierkes notes:
The Orioles once targeted Pie during the Brian Roberts talks, while the Padres wanted Olson for Khalil Greene.

With Khalil Greene, you've got another hefty salary. I could see the Cubs taking that one on. I'm really not sure how much of an upgrade, if any, he'd be over Ryan Theriot.

Naturally, I'm compelled to provide some PITCHf/x analysis on Olson.

Olson's stuff is not overwhelming. Maxing out his fastball below 93 mph, it usually sits in the upper 80s. He also throws a straight change and a slurvey looking curveball that check in around 80/82.










cfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
CH32382.29.77.6128.11,434.4
FA144489.68.47.9133.01,470.8
SL66181.2-2.7-1.5156.8435.4



Not a single change-up to a lefty hitter. While the change and slider are decent, they are certainly not spectacular. And the fastball is nothing special. He appears to be pitching to contact, which may be a good thing in Petco.












cfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
CH32303230.48300.23083.51350.41180.10220.32630.2932
FA144431511290.38230.06882.03770.41690.14750.20670.3721
SL6612444170.46290.27122.22940.39790.08320.36180.3840
242855918690.41760.15482.21000.41100.12400.26570.3647






Cubs Prospect Rankings

John Sickels at MinorLeagueBall.com has posted his review of the Cubs top prospects.

John has this to say in his summary

The Cubs system has thinned out, and there is no one with impact hitting potential at the higher levels.

This pretty much captures my sentiments exactly: no close-to-ready bats in the system. Some pitching, yes.

Josh Vitters is #1, Jeff Samardzija is #2. Esmalin Caridad checks in at 15. I watched an inning of Caridad on MLB.com's broadcast of the AFL championship game. He didn't look that good to me. His breaking ball didn't really break, and everything stayed up. According to a scout.com article from last year (or thereabouts), that is exactly his issue, when his stuff is off.


Thursday, November 27, 2008

Freddy Garcia Injured in Venezuelan Winter League

Freddy Garcia left Thursday night's game after two innings with a muscle strain in his throwing shoulder, according to the official web site of his opponent, los Tigres de Aragua (and the best translation of contractura I could find). This obviously doesn't help his chances of getting a guaranteed contract this season.

Updated El Universal reports Freddy left the game with shoulder discomfort, and Magallenes official site (Garcia's team) has no additional detail, either.

Updated Update This article says he showed no sign of distress during his two innings of work. The AP (via MLB's Spanish language site) is reporting the same thing, saying he threw just 15 pitches without apparent issue.


Wednesday, November 26, 2008

LOOGY f/x

Here's a dump of PITCHf/x data on a gaggle of free agent and minor league free agent relief pitchers. This is what the Cubs have left to pick from.

More Pitchers Added 11/28

Still missing a LOOGY? Leave a comment and I'll add them, if there's data.
For more LOOGY material (including already signed guys), see R.J. Swindle, Trever Miller, Jeremy Affeldt, Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, Brian Shouse, Damaso Marte, Joe Beimel (the last set includes some non-f/x notes on Donald Veal and JR Mathes).

The list of Minor League Free Agents (partial) I stole from is at DC Sports Plus, and is by no means complete. I took the free agents from MLBTR. You can see some Rule V prospects at The Baseball Analysts, including Donnie Veal.

A lot of these guys are obviously not of interest to the Cubs, but I include them anyway, for curiosity's sake. And some of these guys aren't LOOGYs per say, but, again, whtvr.

The tables below are sortable (assuming you are viewing this on cubsfx.com). Try not to laugh at some of the names. Data is combined 2007/8, whatever was available.

Some quick definitions first ... cfx are my pitch id's, pfx_x and pfx_z are spin movement (deviation from the path of a spinless pitch) in inches, deg is "degrees", a representation of the spin direction and rpm is, you guessed it, revolutions per minute, or spin rate.

The rows without pitch IDs are the average values for a pitcher (really not meaningful in this first table). I'm not distinguishing two-seam and four-seam fastballs, even when it is not difficult to do. For some reason, I must have given Ricardo Rincon special treatment.



































































































































































































































































































firstlastcfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
RayKingFA12989.48.17.4132.21,425.5
RayKingSL18882.6-0.63.3188.5504.4
ErasmoRamirezCH767.88.83.9113.1918.0
ErasmoRamirezFA2684.210.86.4120.01,483.1
ErasmoRamirezSL280.63.65.9149.9783.0
RandyKeislerCH981.56.99.0142.31,295.0
RandyKeislerCU270.80.3-6.1183.2596.3
RandyKeislerFA2989.24.910.3154.21,435.0
RandyKeislerSL382.60.33.6176.2420.3
ErickThreetsCH4979.83.99.3157.31,173.9
ErickThreetsFA15495.03.69.8159.81,431.6
ErickThreetsSL1280.3-1.3-0.3173.8368.5
ArnieMunozCH180.04.36.2145.7859.8
ArnieMunozCU1074.1-3.5-7.5154.7892.5
ArnieMunozFA2687.86.210.1148.51,499.4
ArnieMunozSL282.2-0.61.9203.1285.8
JonSwitzerCH1281.57.79.0141.11,371.4
JonSwitzerFA12990.57.59.3141.11,562.6
JonSwitzerSL4082.90.04.6181.0565.2
MikeGoslingCH2982.69.26.6126.51,332.2
MikeGoslingCU573.4-3.0-5.6156.2710.3
MikeGoslingFA21692.09.18.2132.31,602.7
MikeGoslingSL8383.70.92.6163.3415.3
ChrisSeddonCH8677.29.97.2125.91,367.1
ChrisSeddonCU174.4-1.8-5.9162.7653.3
ChrisSeddonFA14486.66.79.6145.21,467.5
ChrisSeddonSL3581.30.13.1177.6420.8
JuanLaraCH1384.79.03.7112.51,170.1
JuanLaraFA989.71.97.2165.7964.6
JuanLaraSL383.7-1.41.4219.2257.8
TroyCateCH175.89.44.9117.31,137.7
TroyCateCU771.8-3.0-6.3154.6706.5
TroyCateFA3989.65.911.4152.71,633.1
TroyCateSL881.5-0.71.4203.4230.5
RonFloresCH5278.49.46.9126.21,295.1
RonFloresFA7886.57.19.2142.91,432.2
RonFloresSL2679.40.32.0172.9350.1
JuanPerezCH1587.68.16.8130.81,327.8
JuanPerezCU4981.2-4.9-2.7131.9682.5
JuanPerezFA5594.78.28.2135.31,569.1
BillWhiteCH1583.27.97.0129.61,298.6
BillWhiteFA14791.67.69.0139.71,548.6
BillWhiteSL8781.71.60.6175.9278.8
BobbyLivingstonCH12677.18.74.8119.61,095.6
BobbyLivingstonCU3870.3-1.5-3.5165.9438.0
BobbyLivingstonFA22987.59.56.1123.11,412.7
BobbyLivingstonSL4882.20.93.3169.8484.2
WillieCollazoCH675.410.6-2.6255.41,154.1
WillieCollazoFA2585.711.72.0157.81,462.0
WillieCollazoSL1073.6-3.7-0.6182.1481.9
JasonMillerCH1078.59.09.3135.91,449.0
JasonMillerFA1787.57.611.5146.81,705.3
JasonMillerSL472.1-3.5-1.5113.8395.1
StephenRandolphCH2680.97.17.1135.11,179.0
StephenRandolphFA13491.63.711.8162.41,617.1
StephenRandolphSL4684.1-2.02.4200.7456.5
MikeBacsikCH11879.39.63.7112.41,181.9
MikeBacsikFA30585.17.68.2136.61,387.3
MikeBacsikSL14475.10.9-0.2186.6239.2
JohnRheineckerCH12680.78.26.4127.61,230.6
JohnRheineckerCU9773.1-6.2-3.4123.2746.6
JohnRheineckerF222187.48.26.8129.21,328.9
JohnRheineckerF411787.73.19.0161.11,199.0
JohnRheineckerSL1082.6-0.44.8186.4606.0
MikeGoslingCH2982.69.26.6126.51,332.2
MikeGoslingCU573.4-3.0-5.6156.2710.3
MikeGoslingFA21692.09.18.2132.31,602.7
MikeGoslingSL8383.70.92.6163.3415.3
RoyceRingCH2878.68.74.4116.51,112.1
RoyceRingCU28873.2-8.4-1.9128.4905.1
RoyceRingFA37289.09.84.4116.61,371.5
SeanHennCH3282.98.010.0141.01,519.2
SeanHennFA20992.05.510.3151.31,545.8
SeanHennSL9784.5-1.24.4192.2628.8
CarmenCaliCH1884.28.66.4126.81,278.8
CarmenCaliFA11592.310.65.8118.41,585.6
CarmenCaliSL10785.11.00.7168.9270.5
MarkMcLemoreCH6278.88.110.2141.61,460.8
MarkMcLemoreFA22290.47.611.5146.71,753.5
MarkMcLemoreSL5382.7-0.13.7183.5455.7
HeathPhillipsCH3680.18.57.4130.91,279.4
HeathPhillipsCU1574.5-3.8-2.9137.4531.6
HeathPhillipsFA2989.45.99.0147.11,362.6
HeathPhillipsSL3183.30.05.7181.0692.3
AlanEmbreeCH3285.67.18.4139.21,359.3
AlanEmbreeFA139193.96.69.8146.21,594.2
AlanEmbreeSL28681.10.10.3180.1211.6
EddieGuardadoCH8679.67.15.9133.21,087.1
EddieGuardadoFA88487.08.49.4138.01,562.0
EddieGuardadoSL17479.72.14.5160.8645.6
DarrenOliverCH1384.68.03.6114.41,064.9
DarrenOliverFA118090.13.27.9158.21,114.1
DarrenOliverSL55978.9-5.8-0.8165.2686.2
DennysReyesCH9685.86.72.7127.9909.4
DennysReyesCU1379.1-3.0-1.1166.6428.5
DennysReyesFA39490.79.05.7123.51,401.3
DennysReyesSL28884.70.92.4165.2388.1
ArthurRhodesCH3087.43.611.3162.01,480.7
ArthurRhodesFA36992.55.410.2152.01,521.3
ArthurRhodesSL16684.6-2.83.0212.6574.2
RicardoRinconCH182.98.16.1126.71,190.6
RicardoRinconF21187.29.35.3119.61,326.2
RicardoRinconF4986.04.68.1151.31,142.8
RicardoRinconSL4082.80.94.7171.9600.2
GlendonRuschCH11881.65.77.0139.91,066.4
GlendonRuschFA91389.85.38.9148.31,340.9
GlendonRuschFC18382.2-0.23.2182.0434.2
GlendonRuschSL14475.1-0.1-1.8185.2295.7
RonVilloneCH7484.69.34.5115.91,241.4
RonVilloneFA74791.47.48.9140.11,520.6
RonVilloneSL27784.7-0.92.1187.5453.4
BrianFuentesCH25173.47.8-1.2177.2944.5
BrianFuentesFA116692.610.85.6117.41,607.7
BrianFuentesSL23178.5-3.50.6194.5483.8
WillOhmanCH2983.88.66.4125.81,295.0
WillOhmanFA73990.55.78.7147.01,358.3
WillOhmanSL44681.9-0.60.6183.5318.4
HoracioRamirezCH19684.46.57.3138.21,185.4
HoracioRamirezFA98090.76.98.0139.31,372.0
HoracioRamirezFC41486.90.75.3174.6692.9
HoracioRamirezSL27179.4-1.60.4182.7292.1
CaseyFossumCH379.87.74.8122.61,025.0
CaseyFossumCU15673.9-8.1-3.6119.3948.4
CaseyFossumFA30188.07.16.0130.81,219.4
CaseyFossumSL32683.5-0.22.5180.8394.2
MarkHendricksonCH58682.66.47.9140.91,217.0
MarkHendricksonCU49273.9-4.3-3.5140.6612.2
MarkHendricksonFA231688.66.18.9146.31,390.3
CarmenPignatielloFA2186.16.66.6136.61,199.4
CarmenPignatielloSL2478.8-2.6-2.0141.6493.7
TravisBlackleyCH5978.98.65.7126.61,181.5
TravisBlackleyCU1373.2-1.2-7.3168.9807.1
TravisBlackleyFA7485.47.210.5145.91,559.0
TravisBlackleyFC1982.81.45.3164.4662.3



Pitch effectiveness - here the average by pitcher is a little more helpful. In any case, the numbers are swing rate, whiff rate (whiffs/swings), balls to called strike ratio (as called by the umps), In Strike Zone rate (rule book width, PITCHf/x provided top and bottoms), Paint (just off the edge, rounding out the "as played" strike zone), Chase is swing rate for pitches out of the rule book zone and Watch is the opposite - takes in the zone.





































































































































































































































































































































































firstlastcfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
RayKingFA12933960.31780.14633.63160.32560.07750.18390.4048
RayKingSL188107810.47340.21351.39020.40430.10110.39290.4079
RayKing
3171401770.41010.19232.10000.37220.09150.30150.4068
ErasmoRamirezCH7160.42860.00001.00000.28570.14290.40000.5000
ErasmoRamirezFA2612140.38460.20004.33330.42310.07690.33330.5455
ErasmoRamirezSL2200.50000.0000
0.50000.00000.00000.0000
ErasmoRamirez
3515200.40000.14293.20000.40000.08570.33330.5000
RandyKeislerCH9090.77780.0000
0.55560.22220.50000.0000
RandyKeislerCU2021.00000.0000
1.00000.0000
0.0000
RandyKeislerFA299200.44830.00001.28570.34480.31030.36840.4000
RandyKeislerSL3210.33330.0000
0.33330.00000.00000.0000
RandyKeisler
4311320.53490.00001.85710.41860.25580.36000.2222
ErickThreetsCH493460.48980.41677.33330.32650.08160.33330.1875
ErickThreetsFA154381160.37660.15522.35710.42210.09090.21350.4000
ErickThreetsSL121020.33330.5000
0.33330.08330.00000.0000
ErickThreets
215511640.40000.24423.06450.39530.08840.23080.3412
ArnieMunozCH1010.0000

0.00000.00000.0000
ArnieMunozCU10550.30000.00002.50000.20000.00000.25000.5000
ArnieMunozFA2613130.46150.00002.50000.38460.15380.25000.2000
ArnieMunozSL2110.0000
1.00000.50000.00000.00001.0000
ArnieMunoz
3919200.38460.00002.42860.33330.10260.23080.3077
JonSwitzerCH121110.41670.4000
0.33330.08330.12500.0000
JonSwitzerFA12954750.51940.20902.10000.49610.06980.36920.3281
JonSwitzerSL4025150.57500.13042.40000.55000.10000.33330.2273
JonSwitzer
181801010.52490.20002.44000.49720.07730.34070.2889
MikeGoslingCH290290.31030.333319.00000.17240.10340.16670.0000
MikeGoslingCU5230.20000.00000.33330.80000.00000.00000.7500
MikeGoslingFA216711450.44910.11342.50000.39350.11110.25190.2471
MikeGoslingSL8345380.54220.35562.80000.44580.10840.34780.2162
MikeGosling
3331182150.45650.19742.77080.39340.10810.26240.2443
ChrisSeddonCH869770.58140.18006.20000.37210.11630.44440.1875
ChrisSeddonCU1101.00000.0000
0.00000.00001.0000
ChrisSeddonFA144321120.35420.09801.90630.38890.08330.21590.4286
ChrisSeddonSL357280.62860.227312.00000.22860.14290.59260.2500
ChrisSeddon
266492170.46620.15322.73680.36090.10150.35290.3333
JuanLaraCH130130.46150.8333
0.15380.15380.36360.0000
JuanLaraFA9360.33330.00000.50000.44440.22220.20000.5000
JuanLaraSL3300.66670.00000.00001.00000.0000
0.3333
JuanLara
256190.44000.45451.80000.36000.16000.31250.3333
TroyCateCH1011.00000.0000
1.00000.0000
0.0000
TroyCateCU7250.71430.4000
0.57140.00000.33330.0000
TroyCateFA3916230.33330.15383.33330.23080.17950.23330.3333
TroyCateSL8800.25000.0000
0.12500.25000.28571.0000
TroyCate
5526290.38180.19054.66670.27270.16360.25000.2667
RonFloresCH520520.55770.48284.75000.19230.19230.50000.2000
RonFloresFA7815630.43590.08821.93330.35900.26920.30000.3214
RonFloresSL262060.38460.20001.28570.50000.00000.30770.5385
RonFlores
156351210.46790.26032.19230.32690.19870.38100.3529
JuanPerezCH150150.66670.20004.00000.60000.06670.50000.2222
JuanPerezCU4919300.32650.50001.53850.32650.08160.36360.7500
JuanPerezFA5517380.47270.26922.62500.36360.16360.34290.3000
JuanPerez
11936830.43700.32692.04550.37820.11760.36490.4444
BillWhiteCH150150.53330.12506.00000.20000.13330.41670.0000
BillWhiteFA147431040.34690.09802.55560.31970.14970.27000.4894
BillWhiteSL8746410.43680.39472.26670.36780.12640.30910.3438
BillWhite
249891600.38960.21652.53490.32930.14060.29340.4146
BobbyLivingstonCH126111150.59520.29333.25000.32540.11900.49410.1951
BobbyLivingstonCU389290.34210.07691.77780.39470.10530.26090.5333
BobbyLivingstonFA229651640.44100.08911.56000.44540.17470.24410.3137
BobbyLivingstonSL4821270.56250.18529.50000.27080.08330.45710.1538
BobbyLivingston
4411063350.48980.17132.08220.38780.14290.35190.2924
WillieCollazoCH6150.83330.8000
0.50000.00000.66670.0000
WillieCollazoFA2515100.36000.00002.20000.32000.04000.29410.5000
WillieCollazoSL101000.40000.00002.00000.50000.00000.20000.4000
WillieCollazo
4126150.43900.22222.28570.39020.02440.32000.3750
JasonMillerCH100100.60000.0000
0.40000.10000.50000.2500
JasonMillerFA173140.29410.00001.00000.47060.11760.22220.6250
JasonMillerSL4310.50000.00001.00000.75000.00000.00000.3333
JasonMiller
316250.41940.00001.57140.48390.09680.31250.4667
StephenRandolphCH261250.34620.44443.2500.26920.23080.26320.4286
StephenRandolphFA13450840.32840.2502.10340.37310.12690.21430.480
StephenRandolphSL4625210.500.69574.7500.19570.15220.51350.5556
StephenRandolph
206761300.36890.40792.51350.32040.14560.300.4848
MikeBacsikCH11811170.61020.11113.600.38140.15250.43840.1111
MikeBacsikFA305642410.37050.06191.95380.36720.12130.22800.3839
MikeBacsikSL14466780.40280.34482.58330.29170.10420.31370.3810
MikeBacsik
5671314360.42860.14402.27270.35100.12350.29350.3216
JohnRheineckerCH126181080.53170.28363.53850.38100.16670.44870.3333
JohnRheineckerCU9738590.32990.28131.95450.40210.12370.18970.4615
JohnRheineckerF2221621590.38910.08142.06820.36200.14480.25530.3750
JohnRheineckerF411750670.47010.16362.100.35900.13680.33330.2857
JohnRheineckerSL1055450.5500.41821.81250.4100.0600.44070.2927
JohnRheinecker
6612234380.44630.22712.18260.37820.13160.32360.3520
MikeGoslingCH290290.31030.333319.00.17240.10340.16670.0
MikeGoslingCU5230.200.00.33330.800.00.00.750
MikeGoslingFA216711450.44910.11342.500.39350.11110.25190.2471
MikeGoslingSL8345380.54220.35562.800.44580.10840.34780.2162
MikeGosling
3331182150.45650.19742.77080.39340.10810.26240.2443
RoyceRingCH280280.46430.07694.00.2500.10710.33330.1429
RoyceRingCU2881811070.37150.42992.7500.30210.11110.29350.4483
RoyceRingFA372201720.43010.13751.42530.47850.13170.26800.3933
RoyceRing
6883813070.40700.24641.94200.39530.12210.28370.4044
SeanHennCH320320.43750.21438.00.18750.12500.34620.1667
SeanHennFA209541550.36360.17112.16670.38280.16270.20160.3750
SeanHennSL9747500.49480.27085.12500.35050.06190.36510.2647
SeanHenn
3381012370.40830.21012.84620.35500.13020.26610.3333
CarmenCaliCH180180.55560.107.00.38890.05560.36360.1429
CarmenCaliFA11544710.39130.11112.68420.42610.12170.21210.3673
CarmenCaliSL10770370.43930.36171.30770.42060.10280.33870.4222
CarmenCali
2401141260.42500.22552.00.42080.10830.28060.3762
MarkMcLemoreCH629530.51610.34382.00.43550.08060.34290.2593
MarkMcLemoreFA222761460.44140.18372.54290.40540.11710.27270.3111
MarkMcLemoreSL5329240.52830.2502.57140.39620.13210.37500.2381
MarkMcLemore
3371142230.46880.22782.44230.40950.11280.30150.2899
HeathPhillipsCH365310.52780.10531.12500.47220.13890.26320.1765
HeathPhillipsCU15780.46670.14293.00.33330.13330.300.20
HeathPhillipsFA2910190.41380.2504.66670.44830.06900.2500.3846
HeathPhillipsSL3112190.35480.09091.85710.45160.12900.23530.50
HeathPhillips
11134770.44140.14292.100.44140.11710.25810.3265
AlanEmbreeCH323290.34380.18189.50000.21880.06250.24000.2857
AlanEmbreeFA139135310380.52260.18712.41240.44640.12010.34290.2544
AlanEmbreeSL2861561300.45450.33853.58820.31820.07690.36920.3626
AlanEmbree
170951211970.50790.20972.64780.42070.11180.34550.2684
EddieGuardadoCH8617690.59300.17657.75000.29070.12790.47540.1200
EddieGuardadoFA8842646200.44340.11731.51020.43780.14710.25960.3204
EddieGuardadoSL174111630.52870.260912.66670.35060.09770.33630.1148
EddieGuardado
11443927520.46770.14771.95630.41350.13810.29210.2833
DarrenOliverCH130130.30770.2500
0.15380.15380.18180.0000
DarrenOliverFA11803518290.42200.11041.72290.42540.15170.28470.3924
DarrenOliverSL5593152440.48120.30481.95920.39180.11090.41470.4155
DarrenOliver
175266610860.44010.17901.81560.41270.13870.32650.3983
DennysReyesCH968880.55210.33965.14290.32290.07290.46150.2581
DennysReyesCU13940.53850.14295.00000.61540.00000.00000.1250
DennysReyesFA3942161780.41120.12962.10810.46450.10910.22270.3716
DennysReyesSL288195930.51040.36052.43900.37850.07640.39110.2936
DennysReyes
7914283630.46650.25202.41460.41850.09100.31960.3293
ArthurRhodesCH301290.56670.05882.25000.53330.10000.35710.2500
ArthurRhodesFA3691871820.46880.19651.64860.46880.11380.30610.3468
ArthurRhodesSL166120460.50600.40482.41670.32530.07830.43750.3519
ArthurRhodes
5653082570.48500.25181.85290.43010.10270.35400.3416
RicardoRinconCH1010.0000

0.00000.00000.0000
RicardoRinconF211380.36360.00002.50000.18180.18180.22220.0000
RicardoRinconF49900.44440.25001.50000.44440.22220.40000.5000
RicardoRinconSL403550.50000.45003.00000.37500.12500.40000.3333
RicardoRincon
6147140.45900.35712.66670.34430.14750.35000.3333
GlendonRuschCH118141040.42370.14004.23080.27970.11860.25880.1515
GlendonRuschFA9132726410.47750.10781.51050.47860.16210.32980.3616
GlendonRuschFC183821010.48090.21593.13040.35520.10930.34750.2769
GlendonRuschSL14459850.45830.22731.78570.38890.09030.43180.5000
GlendonRusch
13584279310.47130.13751.82680.43520.14360.33640.3536
RonVilloneCH740740.44590.27279.25000.16220.14860.35480.0833
RonVilloneFA7473204270.43240.16102.19700.39490.10170.29870.3627
RonVilloneSL277202750.37910.17144.37500.28520.09390.24240.2785
RonVillone
10985225760.41990.17142.77980.35150.10290.28790.3368
BrianFuentesCH25112500.47810.30008.35710.23510.09560.39060.2373
BrianFuentesFA11662019650.47600.20181.72320.49740.14070.28500.3310
BrianFuentesSL231144870.41560.51042.64860.34630.12120.32450.4125
BrianFuentes
164834613020.46780.25552.18550.43630.13110.31320.3324
WillOhmanCH291280.34480.100018.00000.13790.03450.24000.0000
WillOhmanFA7393064330.40600.12001.56730.42220.15290.22950.3526
WillOhmanSL4462312150.52470.38462.90740.35870.09870.41610.2813
WillOhman
12145386760.44810.23351.96020.39210.13010.30220.3256
HoracioRamirezCH19621940.50000.16335.12500.39290.13780.33610.2468
HoracioRamirezFA9803156650.44180.09701.68140.47140.13880.31850.4199
HoracioRamirezFC414973170.50970.08063.12240.39130.14980.33730.2222
HoracioRamirezSL2711581130.39850.21302.05660.38380.13280.32930.4904
HoracioRamirez
186157212890.45670.11532.13350.43260.14020.32670.3727
CaseyFossumCH3031.00000.0000
1.00000.0000
0.0000
CaseyFossumCU15668880.39740.38712.61540.33970.14100.31070.4340
CaseyFossumFA3011121890.36880.16221.98410.42190.13950.24710.4646
CaseyFossumSL3261621640.53370.21841.84910.45400.14110.38760.2905
CaseyFossum
7863424440.44530.22862.04930.42110.13990.31650.3776
MarkHendricksonCH586635230.54610.16563.66670.36520.09560.42200.2383
MarkHendricksonCU4921533390.32320.24531.65600.41670.09960.23690.5561
MarkHendricksonFA231665616600.48450.13102.19890.41670.14080.32940.2984
MarkHendrickson
339487225220.47170.14932.22740.40780.12700.33330.3273
CarmenPignatielloFA211290.38100.3750
0.23810.14290.25000.2000
CarmenPignatielloSL2411130.54170.07692.33330.45830.12500.46150.3636
CarmenPignatiello
4523220.46670.19056.66670.35560.13330.34480.3125
TravisBlackleyCH5917420.62710.21621.75000.50850.13560.44830.2000
TravisBlackleyCU13490.38460.20007.00000.23080.15380.20000.0000
TravisBlackleyFA7423510.31080.04352.64290.36490.14860.21280.5185
TravisBlackleyFC197120.21050.25004.00000.10530.15790.17650.5000
TravisBlackley
165511140.41820.15942.69230.37580.14550.27180.3387



Here's a far fetched LOOGY projection
Hitoki Iwase
IP 51
HR 4
SO 39
BB 16
ERA 3.84


Jose Ascanio vs. Jorge Julio

Jorge Julio knocked Jose Ascanio out of the closer role for Caracas this week. So, is this guy really better than our guy? I don't know if I can answer that (it is probably "yes"), but let's at least see what PITCHf/x says about each pitcher.

Jorge Julio is an eight year veteran, who has thrown almost 450 innings with an ERA+ of 104. Not great for a relief pitcher. About an inch taller than Ascanio, he also throws with a higher arm position.





Their stuff is similar in terms of speed.

Ascanio














cfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
CU1677.58.1-4.0244.01,004.9
FA18395.1-7.37.1226.11,395.5
FS8786.0-7.81.5197.81,006.7
SL4083.61.71.4166.9359.7

32690.4-5.64.4212.11,145.5



Julio












cfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
CH12386.1-7.35.7230.11,163.3
FA51995.5-5.18.3209.61,385.3
SL28783.25.21.5149.1694.9

92990.4-2.25.9193.61,142.6



The difference in arm angle is slight, but reflected in the movement of their pitches.





Julio really sweeps that slider. Ascanio gets a little more tail/sink from his fastball (although Julio's two-seamer does just fine).





Stuff-wise, not a huge difference. Although Jose will throw a curveball, and they throw different off-speed pitches (Ascanio's looks like splitter, Julio's doesn't).

Effectiveness:

Ascanio














cfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
CU161150.12500.00003.66670.18750.06250.00000.3333
FA183801030.53010.19591.93100.38800.16390.38390.2394
FS8758290.51720.17785.00000.27590.08050.38100.1250
SL402380.37500.33335.25000.30000.12500.25000.3333

3261411850.48770.20132.86050.33740.13190.34260.2273



Julio












cfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
CH12311670.44720.50915.80000.21950.07320.34380.1852
FA5192572620.36800.11522.09430.39690.13100.25240.4563
SL287732140.50870.44522.50000.36590.07320.41210.3238

9294464830.42200.29342.43590.36380.10550.31640.3935



Pitch by Pitch, here's how they shake-out

Curve - None for Julio. Ascanio only throws it to righties. He can't hit the strike zone with it, or fool anyone enough to chase it. At least he has one. But at least Julio doesn't have a bad one. Advantage: none

Change/Splitter - Ascanio will throw his to both lefties and righties, but Julio reserves his change-up for lefties. Both guys avoid the strike zone with this pitch, and both get hitters to chase (at an unspectacular rate). Only Julio misses bats. Advantage: Julio

Fastball - Again, combing two- and four-seamers .... Ascanio gets more swinging strikes, but Julio tends to get more guys to take the pitch in the zone. Overall, it doesn't really benefit him much, as their B:CS ratios are about the same. With more missed bats, a slightly better B:CS ratio, and a little more on the paint, Advantage: Ascanio

Oh, we're tied. Rubber pitch

Slider - A key pitch for both guys. Julio wins hands down. More strikes, swings, whiffs and chases. No surprise, given the movement on it. Plus, Julio will throw it to all hitters, unlike Ascanio who almost never shows the slider to a lefty. Advantage: Julio

So, there you have it. I officially approve of the decision by Caracas, based on stuff alone.

This is going to be a long Winter if I'm this bored already.


Brewers Sign R.J. Swindle. LOOGY Herd Thins

The Brewers picked up R.J. Swindle, via a minor league deal. While the Cubs say they need a veteran reliever, and the roster says they need a lefty, they've made no moves.

Swindle's cutter ("FC"), shown below, is not to be confused with his slider. Based on this interview, they're easily distinguished.

RJ: I throw 5 pitches - fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, changeup. My fastball is about 81-84, my curveball that everyone knows me by is about 51-55, all the other pitches come somewhere in between.

It appears he wasn't throwing it when this PITCHf/x data was recorded (July, over three games in Philadelphia).

Change ("CH"), Curve ("CU") and a not-fastball ("FA"). That curveball is slower than slow.















cfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
CH574.29.12.0102.6980.8
CU856.1-8.40.2134.0661.8
FA4684.58.84.4124.91,196.7
FC3774.2-3.35.6209.5717.5






The curve is so slow, it really makes for a fun flight path. Since I path all pitches out to the time when the slowest hits home plate, the other pitches go off the chart. The chart extends 20 feet past home plate.



Sidearmed sinker-ball pitcher. With an euphus pitch. Jeez. Is that thing any good? Does anyone swing at it?


















cfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
CH5050.40000.00000.20000.20000.25000.0000
CU8260.50000.50003.00000.25000.25000.33330.0000
FA4615310.28260.00001.20000.47830.13040.08330.5000
FC3715220.54050.25001.12500.59460.10810.26670.2727
9632640.40630.17951.37500.48960.13540.18370.3617



Too few pitches to tell for sure, but looks like the fastball is ignored, but the curve is tempting. Go figure.

Beyond the Box Score has some more on Swindle, with a closer look at one game.


Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Hill Moved to Bullpen - Aragua Ready to Release Him?

Ignacio Serrano of ESPN Deportes has this update

TIGRES DE ARAGUA
Los bengalíes no han podido establecer una rotación adecuada y decidieron enviar al grandeliga Rich Hill al bullpen, preludio de lo que debe ser su despido.

Just to make sure I read that right...I ran it thru Google translate
The Bengalis have been unable to establish appropriate rotation and decided to send grandeliga Rich Hill to the bullpen, a prelude of what must be his dismissal.

Toast.

Serrano also discusses Jose Ascanio's move from closer to set-up for Caracas. Jorge Julio has bumped him. Julio saved his first game, but blew his second.


Monday, November 24, 2008

Winter Cubs (11/25 update)

11/25 Rich Hill has been sent to the bullpen, which is essentially like being shown to the exit according to ESPN Deportes. Also noted at the link is the move of Jose Ascanio to set-up, yielding the Caracas closer job to Jorge Julio.

Play is over in the Hawaii and Arizona leagues. Everything's in the Caribbean now.



Notes Archive

( 11/24) The Rich Hill Implosion Tour seems to be over.

Angel Guzman and J.R. Mathes both took the hill in Venezuela tonight. Results were not good for either prospect.

Guzman was yanked after giving up four runs in 4.1 innings. The only out he got in the 5th was a play at the plate. He left with the bases loaded, and two runs came in on an error before the side was retired.

Pitching for Caracas, Mathes left his after giving up the lead in the 5th inning with two out. That game is still 4-4 in the 8th, while Guzman's Navegantes del Magallanes still trail, 6-4 in the 6th.

(11/19) Enjoy this video from MLB featuring the Cubs' Arizona Fall Leaguers. The Solar Sox will play in the AFL Championship.

(Updated 11/18) Hill and Guzman had brief starts tonight. One much briefer than the other.

(Updated 11/17) The Hawaii Winter Baseball league ended Sunday, with the Cubs' prospects playing a part.

First, MLB.com has a piece on the Cubs in the Arizona Fall League. The main bit is on Steve Clevenger, but there are notes on each player from the organization. Clevenger seems to be well liked by the pitchers.

Back to Hawaii ... the Cubs had four players on Waikiki's BeachBoys. Pitchers Jeremy Papelbon, who has been their closer, Blake Parker, worked out of the bullpen, and Marquez Smith (3b) and Tony Thomas (2b) playing everyday in the infield. Thomas and Smith both struggled at the plate, but Smith's homer in the final game of the season put the BeachBoys ahead in the 9th, and Pap pitched out of a jam to earn the save.

The win gave them their division (cough...last place is second place...) and a title shot in the four team league. They took full advantage of the opportunity, and, powered by Giants' blue-chipper Buster Posey, won the title game. Smith, who hit the homer a a pinch-hitter, started the game and had two doubles, heating up at the right moment. Thomas had a single, stolen base and a run, hitting 9th, instead of his usual lead-off.


(11/8) I have a fresh post up with notes on several players

(11/6) Play starts in Puerto Rico. At least three Cubs will compete in what is a comeback year for Puerto Rican baseball.

Rich Hill's numbers are starting to get ugly - he's averaging less than 4 innings a start in 2008.



(11/5) Felix Pie joins Licey (more)
Rich Hill still struggling (more)

I think Jason Dubois is on Mexicali's DL. Jesse Estrada is pitching alright. Esmalin Caridad had a bad outing. Tony Thomas is hitting a little, but Marquez Smith still isn't at all.


(11/1)No player updates today, but a link to LVBPTV - watch Venezuelan Winter League games live (and recorded) online. The video size is small, but Firefox zooms it to full screen very nicely. Usually, it's Caracas that's on, of course. The announcers are talking about their former catcher, Henry Blanco (interesting story about him leaving Caracas, if I can find the link). I'm not sure what they're saying, but they were talking about money.


No more stat updates here - full list of players and stats (some guys I had missed, too) right over at mlb.com


On Thursday, Robinson Chirinos joined Magallenes.

Aragua's #3 starter, Rich Hill, was getting crushed when rain interrupted Friday's game.


Let's see, the Mesa Solar Sox continue to rack up runs. Jake Fox is off to a good start for Licey. Thomas and Smith aren't hitting much in Hawaii. Jose Ascanio is settling in and closing games for Caracas.

In 2007 Hawaii Winter Ball, 2003 1st rounder Ryan Harvey was pulled due to an injury.
In 2008 Arizona Fall League, 2006 1st rounder Tyler Colvin was pulled due to an injury.
Both had played in 5 games, with 17 official at bats.

Sam Fuld is not looking too hot with Aragua, no surprise there. Ronny Cedeno plays Wednesday. Rich Hill pitches on Friday. He's had one good start, and one not so good start.


Cedeno reported to camp 10/23; scheduled to play 10/29

Angel Guzman got his first work on Friday night.

J.R. Mathes, part of the I-Cubs 2008 rotation, is pitching for Caracas. The 26 year old lefty worked five innings Friday in relief for the win over Lara. Mathes is now 2-0 in three appearances.


Jake Fox is on Licey's roster. Felix Pie isn't, but will be. Wellington Castillo has caught one game. Fox, listed as a catcher, is likely to DH or play 1B. (UPDATE Fox started at DH on Saturday)

Jesse Estrada gave up three homers and was ejected. After the last two gopher balls (back-to-back), Estrada hit the next batter. He was replaced by Esmalin Caridad, who got 4 scoreless outs. Donnie Veal gave up a run in an inning of work, lowering his ERA. He's had a rough Autumn.


Ronny Cedeno will play for Aragua Wednesday.

Josh Kroeger continues to rake and walk for Caracas.


Steve Clevenger has a "blog" now. Knock yourselves out. Now there's a guest post from Darwin Barney. Basically, they're playing baseball, in Arizona, getting a lot of hits, and not coming up with creative nicknames.


Rich Hill Dropped From Yet Another Rotation

los Tigres de Aragua posted their rotation for the upcoming week (Esp.). Rich Hill is not included.


Mon Yorman Bazardo
Tue Jesús Delgado
Wed Horacio Estrada
Thu Ryan Drese
Fri Dave McKae
Sat Yorman Bazardo
Sun Jesús Delgado


Adios, Rich.


Friday, November 21, 2008

Cardinals in LOOGY Mode; Cubs Not So Much

The Cubs might as well stay right-handed if the Cardinals keep this up. From mlb.com:

On Oct. 15, the Cardinals signed left-hander Charlie Manning, who was 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA in 57 games for the Washington Nationals.

The Cardinals also have lefties Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson and Jaime Garcia on the roster

St. Louis also picked up a minor league free agent in Ian Ostlund, who has looked pretty good in the Tigers system.

Their main target, at the moment, is Trever Miller. This deal has been in the works for several days, at least publicly, but is still not done. With Jeremy Affeldt already off the market, the Cards are moving aggressively to stock their pen with lefties.

The Cubs remain idle, and even let Carmen Pignatiello go the way of minor league free agency. Scott Eyre, in case you haven't noticed, is a Philly, and Sean Marshall is a likely candidate for the 5th spot of someone's rotation. This leaves the Cubs with Neal Cotts. Good stuff, not so good results.

Maddog took a look at some of the lefties on the market a couple weeks ago. Marte is already gone, staying with the Yankees, but there are some remaining candidates.

Not like the Cubs have a shot, but here's a look at Trever Miller. You're likely to see him in late innings against, um, whoever the Cubs happen to pick-up that's a lefty. Pie and Fukudome won't see much same-hand pitching.












cfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
CH13580.88.93.5129.01,126.3
FA61987.28.07.4133.21,384.9
SL25976.5-6.02.3225.6733.6
101383.64.55.6156.31,183.9















cfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
CH13561290.60740.37806.42860.24440.08890.50980.0909
FA6193133060.44750.13001.62310.47660.11790.28090.3695
SL259217420.39380.31372.10000.36680.13130.28660.4211
10135364770.45510.21481.93050.41760.11750.32200.3593












You can see more loogy data like this stuff in that ACB post, too. MLB.com has an article today on the lefty market. And LOOGY's are included in this amazing run-down of minor league free agents by Sean Hogan at DC Sports Plus


Arizona Fall League Wrapping Up

The 2008 Arizona Fall League season is over, except for Saturday's championship game. The Mesa Solar Sox have won their division and will send Braves phenom Tommy Hanson to the hill to face Phoenix for the title. The Desert Dogs have won the last four AFL titles.

You can find more at MLB.com on the game and line-ups. MLB.tv subscribers can watch it online.

Here are the final stats for the Cubs minor leaguers who participated. I include the league and team totals, too, for comparison. In a hitters league, Mesa had the league's best offense and best pitching. That puts some context around the impressive work by Esmalin Caridad.














ERAWHIPK/9B/9HR/9IP
Caridad, Esmailin3.941.139.62.81.116.0
Estrada, Jesse4.131.526.04.11.928.3
Roquet, Rocky5.931.767.94.02.013.7
Veal, Donald10.002.449.013.01.09.0
Team4.421.348.63.31.2340.3
League6.121.678.44.01.21331.3
















BAOBPSLGOPSISOSLG/BAXBH:K
Barney, Darwin0.3020.3370.4070.7440.1051.30.88
Clevenger, Steve0.3020.3970.3970.7940.0951.30.67
Colvin, Tyler0.1760.1760.3530.5290.1772.00.25
Spears, Nate0.3490.4610.5421.0030.1931.60.53
Team0.3280.3960.5470.9420.2191.70.61
League0.2930.3610.4730.8340.1801.60.45


Thursday, November 20, 2008

Heilman or Marquis?

Update Newsday says Heilman called Minaya to plead his case. Didn't work out.

Since Aaron Heilman still wants to start, and the Mets don't, how about swapping could-be #5's with the Cubs? Jason Marquis is a New Yorker, only a year left on his deal. It isn't that the Mets don't need a #5, they actually don't want to "consider" Heilman.

Heilman made 25 starts for the Mets between 2003 and '05. He went 5-13 with a 5.93 ERA. Those statistics include the very beginning of his major-league career, when he struggled before lowering his arm angle. The Mets, fairly or unfairly, have viewed Heilman as primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, which makes him better suited for relief work.

Emphasis is mine. As I've noted before, Heilman is a three-pitch pitcher. His slider has proven to be very effective. The full post is here, but here are a couple relevant points:


cfx#mphpfx_xpfx_zdegrpm
CH44284.3-10.34.1247.51,332.8
FA113494.3-10.54.9244.41,559.8
SL20984.81.00.5212.2503.3
178590.7-9.14.2241.41,379.9


If Heilman were to move into the rotation, he wouldn't maintain that 94mph average on the heat. Think 91-92 instead.

There's a reason for the low # of sliders - he changed his pitch mix and used the slider on righties quite a lot as 2008 moved on.


#yearbatsCHFASL
1772007L0.35030.63280.0169
5952008L0.31090.64870.0403
2092007R0.32060.67940.0000
8042008R0.15920.61440.2264



How's he a change-up/fastball guy if he threw more sliders to righties in 2008? Was it not an effective pitch? Looking across both 2007 and 2008:


cfx#LHHRHHSwingWhiffB:CSISZPaintChaseWatch
CH4422471950.54070.38084.80.34390.09950.41380.2171
FA11344986360.45680.15832.10.43650.09960.31140.3556
SL209271820.38760.48152.10.40670.12920.30650.4941
178577210130.46950.25302.40.41010.10310.33900.3429



That's a very effective pitch, at least by these numbers.

Would he be better than Marquis? Or any other candidate, like Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Jeff Samardzija, Rich Hill (just kidding)? Here are some projections to consider:
















PitcherSystemERAIP
HeilmanMarcel4.2572
HeilmanJames3.8264
MarshallMarcel4.3485
MarshallJames4.1482
MarshallZiPS4.6589
MarquisMarcel4.61162
MarquisJames4.60167
MarquisZiPS4.80163
SamardzijaMarcel3.9239
SamardzijaZiPS5.48133
GuzmanMarcel4.6045
GuzmanZiPS5.0450


If you consider the difference between being projected as a starter vs. a reliever (and some of these guys get a bit of each in this mixed bag), you might easily figure Heilman will be no more effective than Marquis or Marshall. And that Samardzjia should stay in the pen (ZiPS projects him, along with Guzman and Marshall, as a starter).