Bako Signing Close, Other Notes From the Trib

Fresh news to end the year:

Bradley's signing may wait until just before the Cubs Convention.

the Cubs have more depth in the system to make a move for Peavy

Paul Bako, another left-handed hitter, is expected to sign a one-year deal for around $500,000.

We shall see about Peavy. Via MLBTR, Yahoo! Sports reports the DeRosa trade had nothing to do with him.

Asked if Hendry’s dealings meant talks with the Cubs regarding Peavy might reopen, Padres GM Kevin Towers responded with a one-word email: "Doubtful."

Revising the Cubs 25 - plus WAR

A few weeks ago I took a SWAG at the opening day roster. Well, things have changed (and some haven't). Time for an update. And Projections and WAR.

There are some gaps, and I think Jake Peavy could be en route .... we'll see.

But, for now, let's throw in Milton Bradley, a generic back-up catcher Paul Bako and roll. 14 batters, 12 pitchers. Aaron Miles is pitcher #13. Yes, that's 26 men, but I'm balancing the playing time in the projections.

C  Geovany Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mike Fontenot
SS Ryan Theriot
3B Aramis Ramirez
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson
CF Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley
OF Joey Gathright
C  Paul Bako
IF Ronny Cedeno
UT Aaron Miles
PH Micah Hoffpauir

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Rich Harden
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Sean Marshall
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Neal Cotts
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Luis Vizcaino
RP Michael Wuertz
RP Angel Guzman

These WAR #'s are from a first pass looking at Marcels, UZR and WAG (wild ass guess) on running.

Updated The fielding and running have been removed, and an error in the spreadsheet was corrected in the pitching calculations.

Group	WAA	WAR
Hit	3.5
BR	0
Field	0
Hitters		20.9
Pitchers		18.1
TOTAL		39.0
Predicted Wins:		89.0

DeRosa to Cleveland for Prospects

Bruce Levine via Maddog at ACB

[UPDATE @ 12:16 p.m.] According to Levine, Derosa has just been dealt to Cleveland for pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, & John Gaub.

DeRosa and Woody reunited.

Aaron Miles - The Latest Cardinal to Move to Wrigley

The Cubs got Aaron Miles on a two-year contract, according to Cubs.com. He's a utility man - and has even pitched. Oh, I am so PITCHf/xing this infielder.

Gameday thinks he's chucking a knuckle-ball - I applaud the realtime effort, but, Mr. Miles himself says it's something else.

I was just throwing the old sinkerball

Two-seam fastball. But I can see why they'd call it a knuckler. Sits about 72 mph, touching 75 a couple of times. Sinks a bit, but not always. Mostly just flutters quietly towards the plate.

His whiff rate, .143, and that isn't bad for a fastball. Miles also did a good job of nibbling at the corners. But that's besides the point. I see him as Joey Gallagher to Ronny Cedeno's Felix Pie. Or Mark DeRosa is gone gone gone. Update He's gone. Peavy coming next????

Luis Vizcaino f/x is coming up later ...

Luis Vizcaino for Jason Marquis - Almost Official

Not yet official, but widely reported. Jason Marquis and a million bucks to Colorado for Luis Vizcaino.

The Cubs get a disgruntled reliever, the Rockies a back of the rotation veteran.

Vizcaino hasn't stuck around anywhere lately - this will be 6 teams in 6 seasons, and #7 for his career - assuming the Cubs don't flip him (I read somewhere that Bruce Levine said so somewhere etc. etc.)

1999 Oakland
2000 Oakland
2001 Oakland
2002 Milwaukee
2003 Milwaukee
2004 Milwaukee
2005 White Sox
2006 Arizona
2007 Yankees
2008 Colorado
2009 Cubs

Read more about Vizcaino here, where I look at his 2008 splits and his splitter.

Rumor Mill f/x - Jason Hirsh?

I don't know too much on this one, but Neil at CCO reports on the Jason Marquis situation:

According to a report on Friday from the Rocky Mountain News, the Cubs are still shopping Jason Marquis and the Rockies could be a fit. XM Radio reported the rumor on Saturday and stated Jason Hirsh and another player might be involved.

Hirsh is big, 6'8", and has spent time with the Astros and the Rockies, making 29 starts and a few relief appearances in the bigs. His numbers, even in the minors, aren't very exciting. He's still young, 27 in 2009, so he may have some upside, still.

Hirsh supposedly threw up to 97 mph in college, but that velocity is no longer there. In the limited data we have on Hirsh from PITCHf/x, he's topped out at 95. And that's at a park which runs hot on the velocity (Petco) and was way back in '97.



Jason got to pitch a few times in September of 2008, and wasn't as bad on the gun as he was where he left off in 2007. Still, topping out under 93mph is no big whoop in MLB.

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	88	82.1	-7.8	5.3	233.4	1,115.7
CU	36	76.3	4.1	-2.5	223.8	525.7
FA	287	90.9	-5.6	9.3	210.1	1,408.3
SL	74	84.7	1.6	3.3	159.3	502.6

His stuff looks very average - but how effective is it?

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	88	45	43	0.466	0.415	4.2	0.273	0.102	0.375	0.292
CU	36	15	21	0.250	0.333	2.0	0.333	0.194	0.208	0.667
FA	287	125	162	0.477	0.161	2.3	0.429	0.132	0.329	0.325
SL	74	28	46	0.392	0.276	3.5	0.378	0.068	0.217	0.321
	485	213	272	0.445	0.232	2.7	0.386	0.122	0.312	0.342

This isn't a lot of data to go by, but he's not bad. The B:CS ratio seems high - but he throws enough strikes for me. I'd say the fastball is maybe a little over average and the slider a bit below. But the change-up and curveball are both pretty good - but based on limited samples, especially the curve. And he throws all pitches to both left- and right-handed batters.

Marmol Blows a Save and Other Saturday Night Notes

Over at Fangraphs, Marc Hulet has a nice write-up on three Cubs prospects - and recent additions to the 40-man roster (Marcos Mateo, Mitch Atkins and Justin Berg). Of the three, Mateo sounds like the best, to me.

In the 2nd game of Licey's post-season, Carlos Marmol blew a two-run lead in the 9th inning. Marmol struck out one batter, but gave up three singles and hit two men. The first single was an infield hit, and the other two were to centerfield (one on the ground). The final out was a 1-6-3 put-out, which was probably a deflection off one of Marmol's ears. Pegging two guys isn't a good thing, but, otherwise, it doesn't sound too bad. Not like he gave up a couple homers or something.

Scout.com has a piece on Rule 5 Draft-and-Trade acquisition David Patton (sub. req.).

Patton combines his breaking ball with a fastball, consistently 91 to 94 mph with good movement at times, Wilken said. His third pitch is a changeup.

There's also an interesting note about what's a slider or a slurve or a curve and how arm angle makes a difference. PITCHf/x really helps in that regard - IMO.

Sully: Cubs Looking Abroad for Veteran Relief Help

Paul Sullivan has a report on the Cubs looking at two Japanese relievers:

The pitcher they're most interested in is Ken Kadokura, a 35-year-old right-hander, and they also had a tryout for 34-year-old left-hander Shigeki Noguchi. The Yomiuri Giants released both veterans after the 2008 season.

Noguchi looks to have been a starter until a few years ago, and appears to have a history of injuries. Kadokura hasn't pitched in a couple of years (??).

I'm not sure what the point of bringing past-their-prime injured guys over to a tougher league in a new country. But, OK, at least we have something "new" to talk about.

Sammy Waits by the Phone

This AP piece on ESPN.com makes Sammy sound a little caddy:

"I still don't have an offer and I shouldn't be looking for offers out there," said Sosa, the National League MVP in 1998 and the only hitter to surpass 60 or more homers in a season on three occasions. "Any team who wants to sign me should have the initiative and make an offer."

Alrighty then.

Fluff

Cubs.com has lacked anything of interest in days. So, what do we get for Xmas? A lump of coal in the form of a "Q&A" about the holiday with Kevin Gregg. Nothing about baseball at all. What's next, a feature on puppies? The baby animals at the zoo? Did you know that Kevin Gregg is a new member of the Cubs who is looking to stake out turf in the bullpen? Wonder how he feels about leaving Florida? Too bad, read about his tree farm instead.

Trying to glean something, I'm stuck on this.

MLB.com: Do you get first dibs on the best tree?

Gregg: We have to tie off our tree and say, "Hands off."

Dude, back-off, Marmol is our closer. Take a set-up job and stop being so selfish!

If Teixeira to New York is True ....

... and SI and ESPN both are reporting it (see all the goods at MLBTR), Mark Teixeira is a Yankee. This means the other dominoes can start to fall now.

Milton Bradley should become of even more interest to the Nationals now, the Rays may step harder since the Yankees just got better, as the Cubs may finally be able to getting a clearer sense of the competition for the switch-hitter.

Marmol in the Dominican - Strong Second Outing

I don't think it is any cause for celebration, but this does make it four straight strike outs for Carlos Marmol. It was a non-save situation, btw.

Azucareros Top 9th

* Pitcher Change: Carlos Marmol replaces Victor Marte.
* Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter Ramon Nivar replaces Michel Abreu.
* Ramon Nivar called out on strikes.
* Napoleon Calzado strikes out swinging.
* Andy Marte strikes out swinging.

And so ended Licey's 7-2 victory on Saturday night.

Daniel Cabrera f/x

Just in time for his signing with Washington, Daniel Cabrera is the subject of my first contribution to Beyond the Box Score. I'll be posting a few times a week, over there. No real change in this blog, except maybe some less of the "what does that have to do with the Cubs?" stuff.

Almost Live Wrigley Rink Cam

Not quite live, 15 minutes delayed. Wrigley, once home to the Bears, will be home for the Hawks on January 1.

Ronny Cedeno Recovers from Flu

Ronny's back in the Aragua line-up (along with the red-hot Sam Fuld) after missing two games with the flu. Cedeno returned Wednesday and went 3 for 4. One of those hits was a home run with Fuld on base.

You should expect to see a fair amount of Ronny Cedeno in the Caribbean World Series and the World Baseball Classic.

Marmol Gets Going in Winter Ball

Carlos Marmol pitched an inning for Licey on Tuesday. Here is his Winter ball page at MLB.com.

Oneli Perez is the primary closer for los Tigres. In Marmol's outing, Carlos pitched the 7th and Perez the 8th. We'll see if Carlos can move past him.

Since it's the middle of December, I'll give you Marmol's play-by-play log to fill space, I mean, provide valuable information.

# Victor Diaz grounds out, shortstop Anderson Hernandez to first baseman D'Angelo Jimenez.
# Hector Luna walks.
# Luis Polonia flies out to center fielder Yordany Ramirez.
# Alexis Gomez called out on strikes.

Baseball Projection.com Goes Live

Chone Smith has taken his projection system and webified the outputs. For free. Baseball Projection.com just went live and is still a work in progress. Way to go, Chone.

Former Astro and Cub Reliever Dave Smith Passed Away

Dave Smith, the Astros' closer in the 80s, died today of a heart attack, according to MLB.com. Smith was 53 and in San Diego at the time of his death.

Smith saved at least 23 games for six straight seasons, snapping the run during the first of two seasons as a Cub. He saved 17 for Chicago in 1991, and retired after just 11 appearances in 1992. The only pitcher with more saves as an Astro is Billy Wagner.

According to The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, Smith threw a fastball, sinker, curveball and a forkball.

update Here's a story from the AP that tells you more about Dave Smith from his friends/teammates/surfers.

Ryne Sandberg to Manage AA in 2009

Cubs Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg has been promoted from Low-A Peoria to AA Tennessee. He'll manage the Smokies in AA ball:

"For me, it's an excellent opportunity advancing up the ladder with what I'm doing now in baseball," Sandberg says. "I appreciate the opportunity the Cubs have given me these past two years, and I am looking forward to the challenges in taking this next step and being successful in Tennessee."

Successor to Lou Piniella, perhaps?

Felix Pie is Really Not a Cub For Much Longer

In an updated piece on the Joey Gathright deal, MLB.com provides this little nugget:

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry...looked at players like Gathright during the Rule 5 Draft last week.

So, Hendry was actually looking to the Rule 5 Draft to fill this slot? My, how far Felix Pie has fallen. Hendry's got a young lefty OF prospect on his 40-man, and entertained thoughts of upgrading him from someone left off another club's 40-man.

Heyman: Cubs Could Go Lowe

I like it, I like it. Mr. Sinker Derek Lowe would be a great fit for the Cubs, and SI says they're taking a look at him. There would be a lot of competition for Lowe, and the length of the contract could be an issue.

Here are some PITCHf/x looks at Lowe

NLCS Homers (with HitTracker data)

Overview

And there's a lot more on him, too. Just click his name/label below the post.

MLB Drops Hawaii Winter Baseball - Again

The end of a contract is the end of winter ball in Hawaii.

The Hawaii Winter Baseball league opened in 1993 and ran through 1997. It was relaunched under the three-year contract in 2006.

The article mentions a "consolidation" of developmental leagues and programs in Arizona. Whether the Arizona Fall League expands or they have a 2nd league remains to be seen.

Early Guess at Cubs 25-Man Roster

Just throwing this out there. The back-up catcher and the right-fielder are guesses. Jeff Samardzija is being talked about as a starter, even in Iowa (think Sean Marshall as the #5 once Marquis is moved) so he doesn't make the list. I do expect Marshall to move into the rotation, opening another bullpen spot. And I'm not so sure about Wuertz. For now, I'm listing 14 hitters and 11 pitchers. Hoffpauir could go for a corner infielder who can play 3rd, too. Guesses/likely changes are marked with a *.

C  Geovany Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mark DeRosa
SS Ryan Theriot
3B Aramis Ramirez
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson
CF Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley*
PH Micah Hoffpauir*
OF Joey Gathright
C  Paul Bako*
IF Mike Fontenot
IF Ronny Cedeno

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Rich Harden
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Jason Marquis*
RP Sean Marshall*
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Neal Cotts
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Michael Wuertz*

Confirmed: Joey Gathright to the Cubs

Updated 12/16 The Sun Times says it is an $800,000 contract for 2009, for a spot on the bench. Cubs.com has it, too.

Via MLBTR, The Score 670 reports:

Cubs will sign outfielder Joey Gathright.....[he will be] 28 in April, [and] was non-tendered by the Royals on Friday.

Seriously? This guy's not good enough to be on the Royals. I really don't care if he can jump over a car. Unless this is setting-up another move, this is not a good pick-up.

Update Cubs.com has the story now, too.

Gathright could be added to the roster this week and compete for a spot on the Cubs' bench.

This doesn't sound like a major league contract to me. Fine. But I think Mr. Pie is on his way elsewhere.

Updated...again Colin Wyers left this very interesting comment at ACB (follow the link for the numbers), and I've subsequently change my mind on this.

-18+10+7.5+20+5=24.5

Voila, a league-average player, maybe a little better.

Good idea. Go get him, Jim, and see what Felix brings back from Baltimore (or wherever).

Since I'm interested in plate discipline numbers from PITCHf/x, here's Joey and Felix side-by-side. You can see a whole bunch more at the bottom of this archive post.

first	last	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
Felix	Pie	667	0.4828	0.2174	2.1560	0.3823	0.1109	0.3544	0.3098
Joey	Gathright	1607	0.5028	0.1411	2.1255	0.4281	0.1220	0.3645	0.3125

Very close. Joey makes a lot more contact, but Felix has a lot more pop in his bat (not shown here obviously).

Winter Meetings Roundup - Beyond the Box Score

Peter Bendix has his Winter Meetings Roundup over at BTB. It covers the nine big deals from last week in Las Vegas.

So, Where is Rich Hill Now?

I just checked, and Rich Hill is no longer on the Aragua roster. He lost his spot to Pedro Liriano about a week ago. Apparently, Rich feels he's made progress (from the link, translation by Google):

"I've been working with the mental part, because they tell me that my mechanics are good," said Hill.

We'll see him in Mesa, I presume.

Randy Johnson Should Play the Odds

If this Phil Rogers report is true

The Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Angels, A's and Rangers are pursuing Randy Johnson. He has told friends he has three goals — to play in another World Series, to surpass 5,000 strikeouts (he needs 211) and to win 300 games (he needs five).

Johnson should become a Cub.

2009 World Series Odds (source)

3.  Chicago Cubs         + 700
4.  Los Angeles Angels   + 800
8.  Los Angeles Dodgers  +1400
19. Milwaukee Brewers    +4000
21. Oakland Athletics    +5000
22. Texas Rangers        +5000
23. San Francisco Giants +5000
24. Houston Astros       +6000

I'd say he ends up in LA, but the Cubs probably not a bad choice, either. The Cubs have the best odds of any NL team (Yankees and Red Sox top the list) of winning a pennant, while the Angels are just 3rd in the AL.

K-Rod Says His Velocity Will Return and I Believe Him

Really, I do believe him - he says to expect mid-90's, not high-90s - but no more low 90's heaters.

Over at mlb.com, one of today's top stories is an interview with Francisco Rodriguez. The Mets' new closer says the loss of velocity on his fastball was intentional, to help keep a consistent delivery, disguising his new fangled change-up. Here's a bit from the link:

He has mastered the changeup, he says, to the point that delivery is no longer an issue. And he will pitch in the mid-90s again, on a regular basis, under the lights of Citi Field.

Bail Out Ballpark by any other name.

K-Rod did show an improved fastball at the tail end of last season, while throwing even more change-ups. You can see more in this analysis of his velocity and pitch selection. He still wasn't throwing as hard as he did in 2007, though. Wait until Spring, and wait until the PITCHf/x at the new park is settled in. At Shea, speed seemed to be lower than most other parks.

Wil Ledezma - New LOOGY on the Market

The D-backs non-tendered Wilfredo Ledezma. I've looked at him before - he's got good stuff. Here's an update/improvement on the earlier PITCHf/x analysis.

cfx	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
CH	240	83.6	8.5	8.1	133.4	1,395.0
FA	961	94.4	7.3	10.4	144.4	1,706.3
SL	256	83.2	-1.4	1.1	191.7	321.1
	1457	90.6	6.0	8.4	150.9	1,411.6

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
CH	240	6	234	0.4375	0.3714	4.8696	0.2625	0.1125	0.3390	0.2857
FA	961	257	704	0.4339	0.1727	2.0621	0.4277	0.1020	0.2855	0.3674
SL	256	121	135	0.4688	0.2917	1.9565	0.3945	0.1055	0.3355	0.3267
	1457	384	1073	0.4406	0.2274	2.3049	0.3946	0.1043	0.3050	0.3513

That's pretty good stuff. The slider's whiff rate isn't gaudy, but he throws it for strikes. Good fastball, good change-up against the righties.

Looking at flight paths and spin movement, when you consider his velocity, you can see why his stuff is effective.





Plate locations vs. lefties - keeps the ball away



Against righties, the only thing he consistently keeps away is the change-up.



Arizona picked Ledezma off the waiver wire in August, and just decided not to offer him a contract. They may not want to lose him - not wanting to go into arbitration is enough to non-tender a player.

Simply put, Ledezma walks too many hitters. And, according to fangraphs, he projects to an ERA around 4.50, which is not great for a reliever. His ground ball rate runs in the upper 30's, which is also an issue in a place like Wrigley (he had a low HR/FB rate in 2008, possibly due his home parks as a Padre and a D-Back). According to baseball-reference, lefties and righties hit him equally well.

So, a guy who has been in four organizations in two years - and headed for this fifth - with good stuff, questionable control, middling stats and not a true LOOGY specialist. Worth a minor league deal with a invite to Spring Training, which is probably what he'll get from Arizona (pure speculation).

The Case Against Bobby Abreu

Here's why the Cubs shouldn't sign Bobby Abreu, by Maddog

Over the life of the contract the guy would be below replacement level.

That assumes a four year deal. It is less ugly, but hideous still, with one less year. More at ACB.

Friday's Non-Tender Deadline Could Impact Cubs

Or not ... updated ... Cotts ($1.1mil) and Gaudin ($2) ... and now Johnson ($3) ... have already signed contracts, the rest were tendered. As always, the Cubs will settle with the remaining players outside of arbitration.

December 12th is a big day for players with 3-6 years service:

Friday is the deadline for teams to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players who have three to six years service time. Players not tendered a contract become free agents.

A bunch of Cubs fit the bill (from Cubs.com)

Ronny Cedeno - He could get the boot since nothing's really come of him to date. Keeps coming up in trade rumors, so will probably stick.
Neal Cotts - the lone lefty in the bullpen at the moment, since I count Marshall as the #5 starter.
Chad Gaudin - I've heard grumblings, but he has too much value as a swingman, although Lou may not like him.
Kevin Gregg - obviously not going anywhere
Reed Johnson - Cheap and good enough to platoon.
Michael Wuertz - Not going to get a big raise via arbitration or otherwise, he'll stay

So, Like Carrie Muskat says at the link, these guys will probably all remain Cubs - for now.

Marquis for Schoeneweis?

The Cubs and Mets were rumored to have discussed Jason Marquis for Aaron Heilman a few weeks ago. With Heilman gone in the 12 player/3 team blockbuster, Jon Heyman is wondering if Scott Schoeneweis would be a fit.

I had actually pulled together Schoeneweis' PITCHf/x data when his name first came up in various Met rumors, but hadn't bothered to look much at it. He's basically a two-pitch guy, although his slider does vary on the slutter/slider/slurve spectrum, and he probably mixes in two- and four-seam fastballs. Drops down low, can throw hard enough, considering the angle. Here's a look at his pitch speed by outing.

The top pane is all games, the middle is just Shea, and the bottom everything but Shea. Shea runs a couple MPH slower for the most part, and I'm not park adjusting the data (my pitch IDs are based on game-by-game, not aggregated across games/parks - sometimes....).

Click to enlarge:



So, he's around 88-90 with the fastball, 80-82 with the slurve. Here are the average flight paths and spin movement. There may be a few "change-ups" in with the slurves - but it isn't as obvious as it may appear in the inset below.





Both pitches are pretty effective. He uses less sliders against lefties, and looks like a nibbler and likes to work inside with the fastball.

cfx	#	LHH	RHH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch
FA	873	405	468	0.4490	0.1403	2.0446	0.3895	0.1558	0.3171	0.3441
SL	243	94	149	0.5967	0.2690	3.4091	0.3539	0.1358	0.5159	0.2558
	1116	499	617	0.4812	0.1750	2.2123	0.3817	0.1514	0.3623	0.3263

Plate location vs. LHH



Plate location vs. RHH



Couple other notes. First, he's from New Jersey and Jewish so I have an immediate affinity. He's also overcome testicular cancer and Tommy John surgery. So I have immediate respect. He pitched two years with a torn knee tendon (source), so, um, OK, he's tough. He's also smart, a History degree from Duke. He must like to read, a lot.

He'll be 35 in 2009, and has made a lot of appearances lately

2005  80
2006  71
2007  70
2008  73

He only threw 51-59 innings each year, so he hasn't be over-worked, rather often-worked.

He did look pretty lucky last year, with some expected regression in strand rates and BABIP. He projects with an ERA in the 4.7 range. He has a pretty strong platoon split, tougher on lefties than righties, so he could very well be a good LOOGY candidate.

Bako Back as Back-Up Back-Stop?

A little blip in the Winter Meeting notes from Cubs.com:

Goals accomplished: Hendry got the impression from representatives of free-agent outfielders available that the Cubs were their top choice. That should help in negotiations. He also talked to reps for Randy Johnson, who could be a part of the rotation, and catcher Paul Bako, who could return to the team as backup to Geovany Soto.

Quite the lofty "goals", way to go.

Like last night's subject, Chris Coste, Bako will be 37 next year. His career slash line of 231/305/317 is close to Marcel, which has him at 223/295/322 with a paltry wOBA of .276 (fangraphs.com). He does bat left-handed, so he'll continue to draw attention from teams like the Cubs, who want a reliable short-term fix for a 2nd catcher. And at a good price - the Reds paid Bako $750,000 last year (baseball-reference.com).

Cubs Pass on Peavy

From the mouth of Kevin Towers, to MLB.com:

"It doesn't look like anything is going to happen with the Cubs," Towers said.

Towers indicated that Cubs GM Jim Hendry pulled out of the deal.

"He said he's got other things going on. I respect his position," Towers said.

If this is true, the Cubs are going to be honing on a right fielder who can bat left-handed and some more bullpen help - also of the left-handed and veteran variety.

Rule V Draft - Cubs Take a Pass but Make a Trade, Veal Selected By Pirates

The Rule V Draft Major League and Minor League phases have been completed, the Cubs made no picks. They did, however, make a trade. The Reds selected David Patton from Colorado, and flipped him to Chicago for cash:

"He's got a great arm, he's got three-plus pitches," Cubs player development director Oneri Fleita said. "He's pitched out of the bullpen and gives us another guy who gives us some depth. He's got a plus arm, threw up to 94 miles an hour and throws strikes.

Patton hasn't pitched past High A yet, but did throw in both Hawaii Winter Ball and the Arizona Fall League. He's probably AAA talent, we'll see if he can stretch and snag a roster spot.

correction Donald Veal was taken by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has a real chance of sticking there, they're bad enough to carry him. We'll see how things go in the Spring.

21 picks were made in the Major League phase. 16 pitchers. Ex-Cub Rocky Cherry to the Mets, off of the Orioles AAA roster.

Here's the draft-tracker.

On to round minor league phase....again, the Cubs pass....

Cubs lose Yusef Carter, selected by Oakland
and Mark Holliman taken by the Brewers

The Brewers were very active in the AAA phase. Only one player moved in the AA phase.

LA Times - Cubs Check on Chone Figgins

Chone Figgins could become a replacement for Mark DeRosa. From the now bankrupt LA Times:

Figgins, a former super utility player who has started at six different positions, would be a perfect fit for the Cubs, who could also use a good leadoff hitter.

The Angels are not actively trying to trade Figgins, who has also drawn heavy interest from the Chicago White Sox in recent years, but if they can't re-sign Teixeira, Figgins could be a valuable chip in a deal for a power bat.

The Angels have also expressed interest in Fuentes, a free agent who could command a deal in the three-year, $30-million range, but if they don't sign the left-hander, they could seek bullpen help in a deal with the Cubs.

Like the Cubs have left-handed relievers to spare. Not a match there, at the moment.

Small Trade in Pennsylvania First Peavy Domino?

Interesting thought from Delaware Online on the Ronny Paulino-to-Philly deal.

Paulino, 27, is a major-league-caliber catcher, so this figures to fuel the speculation that Chris Coste will be packaged in a trade, perhaps the multi-team deal that would bring Mark DeRosa to Philly.

I was just a-wondering about Koyie Hill really being given the chance to take Henry Blanco's job. Hank is gone, too expensive for a team that will not use a back-up often. Geovany Soto is too big a piece of the offense. Coste will be 36 next season, but was a rookie at 33. His price tag will be less than $500,000. He seems to have a semblance of a clue as a batter, which is something Koyie Hill lacks (Coste's projected wOBA comes in 30 points over Hill and Blanco's).
So, speculating, but who knows. Maybe he's destined for San Diego, if he's even a part of the trade, if there's even a trade.

Steve Phillips Says Peavy and DeRosa Will Move

According to MLB.com, and probably all over ESPN, Steve Phillips thinks this is the deal

Cubs send DeRosa to Philadelphia
Phillies send Jason Donald and one of JA Happ and Carlos Carrasco to San Diego via Chicago
Cubs send Vitters, Marquis and Pie to San Diego
Padres send Peavy to the Cubs

So, there's the latest rumor, or one of them. The Twins have also been mentioned today as a possible source for prospects that the Friars may like.

Round-table at Statistically Speaking

Pizza Cutter must of lost his Rolodex, so I ended up joining this week's round-table over at Statistically Speaking.
Check it out. Topics include Rich Hill, Adam Everett, Mark Teixeira.
This ends today's shameless act of self-promotion.

Chad Fox Can Still Bring It - But So What?

Last year, the Cubs signed Chad Fox to a minor league deal, with a Spring Training invitation. Again, for 2009, Fox will be a NRI to the big league camp in February.

Fox made three appearances for the Cubs in 2008, and showed he can still reach 95 with his fastball.

Problem is, he simply couldn't work the heat inside on righties


Chad Fox, Fastballs to RHH 2008

And couldn't throw it for a first pitch strike, and didn't even try, relying on sliders instead


Chad Fox, First Pitch to RHH 2008

Of the 25 fastballs that Fox threw, he got exactly zero whiffs on 11 swings. And any outs he got were in the air. Even including his slider, Chad got no ground outs.

As you can see here, the slider has a hump in it, and the fastball is very straight. Two pitches, easy to pick out, and only one is even mildly effective.


Chad Fox Average Flight Paths

Worth another minor league deal and a spot in camp? Sure, why not. Expecting much? Nope.

Neyer on Santo

I'm disappointed, but not surprised, with the Hall of Fame announcements today. Joe Gordon (OK, that was a surprise) was the only player selected by the two groups involved in the Veterans Committee process. At some point, Ron Santo needs to be included in the HOF. He has the credentials, particularly when you consider the health challenges he faced.

Rob Neyer had a reasonable take on the situation:

I'm disappointed for Santo, who's more than deserving. I'm not particularly disappointed for the Hall of Fame. Because if you rig the process to allow for Santo's election, you're going to wind up rigging it for other, less deserving candidates. That said, there's probably not much point in going through this process every year or two if the results are going to be the same.

This might not be far from the truth, that the whole exercise has become pointless.

Phillies in on the Cubs-Padres Talks?

Looks like the Orioles may have company - the Phillies have expressed interest in the Peavy process, and could match-up as the 3rd (or 4th) team in the deal. From CBS:

Current talks center around the Cubs sending third-base prospect Josh Vitters, right-handed pitcher Kevin Hart and possibly veteran Jason Marquis, to the Padres in exchange for Peavy.

Any Phillies' involvement could wind up sending left-hander J.A. Happ, 26, the Phillies' third-round pick in the 2004 draft, to San Diego. The Padres and Phillies also have discussed catcher Chris Coste, according to sources.

The Padres currently are thin behind the plate and, as of now, would open the season with Nick Hundley catching.

Other names that have been discussed between the Cubs and Padres include infielder Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Angel Guzman. The Cubs are leaning against dealing left-hander Sean Marshall, sources said.

It will take time, but Peavy will be a Cub. Miller mentions the challenge of getting Marquis off the payroll, which is part of the picture, too. I'm glad the Cubs are holding on to Marshall, so far. He's too good, and ML ready, to give up.

Update The San Diego Union-Tribune says Mark DeRosa could land in Philly as an early-season replacement for Chase Utley.

Cubs Checking Out Rich Aurilia

Fox's Ken Rosenthal thinks the Cubs could be interested in Rich Aurilia:

...as a backup at first and third base, but only if they part with shortstop Ronny Cedeno or second baseman Mike Fontenot

This is probably related to some type of trickle effect if Mark DeRosa has to be the everyday second basemen or rightfielder. It also indicates the Cubs may feel like they have their own utility/middle infield options in the system.

Aurilia was very tough on lefty pitching, even at age 36. In 2008 he put up 321/377/526 in 151 PA against southpaws, but just 263/308/356 against righties. His career splits aren't as drastic, and the platoon effect was there for Aurilia in 2006, but not 2007. In 2009, as a 37 year old, I'd expect those nifty platoon numbers to fade.

Ibanez Chase is On

From MLBTR, Raul Ibanez has declined the Mariners' arbitration offer. It will take multiple years, and will cost the Cubs draft picks, but they're in the chase. If the Cubs feel he can help them win within two years, and can handle a third year on top of that, they may be willing to absorb the cost.

Rich Hill Works Out the Bullpen

In Venezuela, Rich Hill has made two relief appearances, a week and a half after his demotion from the starting rotation.

First time out, 1.1 innings, 1 walk, 1 hit, 1 k. Next time, with one day of rest, one batter, one walk. No, I will not add him to my LOOGY post. Yet.

Dusty Threatens to Finish Wood Off

In a thinly veiled threat to Kerry Wood's health, Dusty Baker said this today, according to the Trib:

I will give him a call and see what's up.

Be afraid, Kerry, be afraid.

Hot Stove 2008-9 Archive

Find the latest updates at the current post

Updated 11/25

Updated 5:45pm Another note from another Gordon Wittenmyer piece in the Sun Times was about the non-contact with Bobby Abreu. Not that the Cubs won't be interested, but they're taking their time. GW also pretty much kills the Fontenot/Marshall speculation.

Mark Teahen-to-the-Cubs trade rumors continue to ring of hollow speculation...The Cubs' plans to increase Mike Fontenot's role and the value of Sean Marshall in their pitching plans make those players too steep a price for Teahen.

We're in the slow zone, around Thanksgiving. December brings Winter meetings and more action. For now, we're left with Lou saying the Cubs are out of the Peavy and Big Unit chase. The Sun Times is the primary source for this news, along with a comment from Lou about needing a veteran reliever. Possibly a lefty, although the Cubs have either been stealthy or motionless on that front.

MLB.com mentions the 5th spot in the rotation will come down to Marshall and Marquis. Marquis and his salary could be tough to move, but Marshall should be a part of the rotation when the season starts. So, the Cubs will likely eat some cash to move Marquis.

MLB.com also mentions Marquis for Teahen as a possibility. We'll see about that. Trading a legitimate back of the rotation veteran for a declining utility guy? Only if the Cubs don't pay Jason's salary.

Updated 11/23 Still with the Teahen talk? Marshall or Fontentot, either guy, is a bad trade for Teahen.

Updated 11/22 First, a big thanks to the Arizona Fall League for having today's championship game available for viewing online. At the same time, Syracuse's "football" team will "play" Notre Dame in South Bend. I won't have to watch the carnage unless I really want to. Both teams are pretty sad....I digress....but I do thank the AFL for sparing me.

All quiet on the Peavy front.....Lefty relievers are moving, but the Cubs aren't playing in that market right now.

The Cubs and Mets are kicking the tires on Bobby Abreu, according to Anthony McCarron:

A source close to Abreu said he might be willing to accept a two-year contract with an option from the Yankees, though he might get a three-year offer elsewhere. The Mets and Cubs have expressed interest in him, the source said.

The Cubs are in on Rafael Furcal, but Ken Rostenthal thinks they're on the sidelines until Zell's sale of the club moves forward.....Mike Scarr at MLB.com thinks the Cubs are in on Edgar Renteria, too:

The teams reportedly making a run -- A's, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Orioles -- have interest in both Renteria and Furcal while the Cardinals are the possible mystery team that has expressed interest in Furcal.

Updated 11/20 Rafael Furcal season is open and in full swing (h/t RotoWorld). Jeff Passan has the latest, and the lede says it all:

With a number of three-year offers in hand and more teams planning on submitting bids, Rafael Furcal’s agent said Thursday it will take at least a four-year deal

OK, hot commodity.

Kinzer confirmed that six teams have shown interest in Furcal: San Francisco, Oakland, Baltimore, Atlanta, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers, his team of the last three seasons. Another team Kinzer wouldn’t identify has indicated to him it intends to place a competitive bid as well.

Updated 11/19 Justin Berg, Mitch Atkins and Marcos Mateo were added to the 40 man roster today. All three are now protected from the Rule V Draft, which takes place at the Winter meetings. The Cubs have four open slots remaining for free agents or other moves. And mlb.com really doesn't coordinate things between its writers, which is good. But it can be amusing at times.



OK, they're both vague enough to not be mutually exclusive. But Muskat seems the have the real scoop, Towers is being optimistic - at least publicly. From mlb.com:

Because of escalating contract commitments to players and because the team's ownership situation is in flux, the Cubs don't have much room in their 2009 budget for Peavy and have other issues to address. The team is in the market for a left-handed-hitting outfielder and a veteran reliever.

The emphasis is mine. It's kind of an "oh by the way" remark, but quite meaningful.



Updated 11/18 Quick bites ..... Dempster is close to inking a deal going to stay in Chicago through 2011 (plus a player option) ..... Jeremy Affeldt sets the market for lefty bullpen help ..... 2nd update Bob Dutton has news out of Kansas City, where the Cubs are looking for a lefty bat..updated again..more from KC .... Mark Teahen and Chicago/Aragua's very own Ronny Cedeno added to the table below .... DeJesus was already there (wishful thinking started early) ... added Jeremy Hermida, who has been mentioned many times, too .... I should also mention Teahen is a very good baserunner

Updated 11/17 Not much going on at the moment. Kevin Gregg (PFX profile here) is still making some people scratch their heads. Woody may come back if the market for his services isn't what others (i.e. Hendry) expected. The Peavy talks seem dead. Raul Ibanez is a bad leftfielder, Adam Dunn isn't as bad as you'd think (details here). Assume a few notches down for each in rightfield.

Updated 11/15 After the DBacks said no thanks to Randy Johnson's asking price of $8 million, you may see him in a Cubs uniform. Paul Sullivan reported on it last night, but over at ACB the speculation started days ago.

I'm thinking Dempster goes to Atlanta. Now that the Braves are out of the Peavy chase, they'll be able to be more aggressive, if they wish, with Dempster than they had planned. The Cubs are unlikely to land Peavy, as well. Sabathia will have the player's union on his back to take the Yankee's offer. Assuming Peavy stays put, that leaves Unit, Burnett and Lowe as three targets for the Cubs. On offense, I've heard/read multiple times about Bobby Abreu's 3/45 demand that the Cubs could meet.

This isn't stove related, per say, but I think the Cubs will have a bunch of good young arms to choose from for the bullpen, and, if needed, even a rotation spot. Jeff Samardzija, obviously, plus Angel Guzman, Randy Wells, Jose Ascanio, Michael Wuertz, Kevin Hart, Esmalin Caridad, Justin Berg, Mitch Atkins, Jesse Estrada and on and on.

Some of those guys are real long shots, some bubble and one, maybe two, virtual locks. I'm thinking the Cubs will roll into April with a bullpen of Marmol, Keving Gregg (first f/x review here), Samardzija, Guzman, Neal Cotts plus two others. Possibly a veteran and/or at least one additional from the list (including the un-named "on and on" pitchers - how's that for a hedge?).

Updated 11/9 Buster Olney gives the Cubs the same weight he gives the Dodgers, while anticipating a move between San Diego and Atlanta:

Jake Peavy, the franchise's best player, will be traded soon. There has been progress between the Padres and Braves in talks in recent days, with Gorkys Hernandez being added to shortstop Yunel Escobar within the proposed package of players that will likely be shipped from Atlanta to San Diego in the forthcoming days. The Padres will also continue to talk with the Cubs and Dodgers, but the expectation is that a deal is expected to go down before Thanksgiving.

Updated 11/8 Which Peavy package is the Cubs'?


Updated 11/6 Peavy could be a Cub this week. Or a Brave. Or a Padre. How about Aaron Heilman? Cubs don't want Coco Crisp anymore. Dempster is looking for five years. Cubs will go 4/50 but that's it. Even if they sign Peavy, they still say they can keep Dempster.


Updated 11/5 A lot of stuff flying around, like the Braves chasing Dempster, the Cubs having offered 3/36 and willing to got to 4. Peavy still a possibility, but the Braves are in that, too. CC Sabathia is on the Cubs' radar .... Derek Lowe has been mentioned, which I like .... Kerry Wood is getting a lot of bites, including Cleveland, and will probably get too good an offer to match .... I'll add pitching info to the table later this week(end).

Updated 11/3 Various notes....on the ex-Cub front, Sergio Mitre is a Yankee, and Cliff Floyd's option was declined by Tampa. The Cubs and the Nats made a minor trade. I still feel like Jake Peavy's coming to Chicago (late update 11/3 not so much). The Brewers re-upped Mike Cameron for $10 million, which says a lot about the center field market.

Updated 11/2 a I think I have my days right now ... anyway, Woody's looking at one guaranteed year with the Cubs plus optionS, according to Bruce Miles. Reed Johnson will get an offer. Really sounds like Dempster will stay put, but Woody will get a shot elsewhere with multiple years guaranteed. I'm starting the get the feeling that Ryan Theriot and Felix Pie will be Padres, along with Sean Marshall and a few other guys. Jake Peavy and Kahlil Greene (mullet included) will be Cubs. I'm probably wrong, but the money end of it makes "sense" in a way. What's more likely is Hoffpauir taking Ward's job.

Updated 11/1 b Lieber, Wood declare. Lieber is a no, and Woody a maybe. For the right terms, I say sign him. So says Hendry, I think

"Kerry has done a terrific job in the closing role, but at the same time, there's a lot of conversations that have to happen with his representatives and him, as to what his desires are and what type of contract he's looking for"

Ward makes eight - all eligible Cubs have filed.

MLB.com is running this free agent list - check for daily updates

Updated 11/1 Bobby Abreu chatter

Updated 10/31 Billy Butler added to the list; Henry Blanco's option declined, but will likely sign a fresh deal with the Cubs.

Updated 10/29 Jake Peavy is the hottest topic, all sorts of crazy speculation involving everyone from Fukudome to Lee. Things are stalling out with the Braves, so the Padres may eventually turn to the Cubs and Dodgers.
Casey McGehee was waived, and claimed by the Brewers.
Peoria pitcher Jose Castillo was indicted for throwing a ball into the stands during an ugly brawl.
Other than that, things are pretty quiet.

Updated 10/10 Marcel projections, thanks to Colin Wyers (these are not the final release yet), as pOPS

Updated 10/9 added Beltran and J. Ballgame

---

The residue of the 2008 Cubs season is still lingering, but already, the roster for 2009 is on the table. Starting with Rich Harden's option being picked-up, and ending who knows where, this offseason will be interesting.

Questions include the middle infield, Fukudome's future, and the need for a legitimate lefty bat in the heart of the order. Here's a list of players mentioned in various rumors, from MLBTraderumors.com to the Trib and Sun Times and various points in between. The "list" is sortable and includes plate discipline numbers for 2008, based on plate locations recorded by the PITCHf/x system. I include relevant Cubs for reference.

first	last	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	ISZ	Paint	Chase	Watch	pOPS
Carlos	Beltran	2600	0.4177	0.1354	2.3	0.3585	0.1112	0.2836	0.3423	0.867
Jim	Edmonds	1617	0.4069	0.2188	2.3	0.3853	0.1249	0.2455	0.3355	0.793
Bobby	Abreu	2876	0.3536	0.1504	1.7	0.3964	0.1172	0.2327	0.4623	0.833
Raul	Ibanez	2680	0.4623	0.1719	2.5	0.3735	0.1306	0.3371	0.3277	0.823
Mark	DeRosa	2288	0.4314	0.1945	2.4	0.4301	0.1184	0.2592	0.3404	0.790
Alfonso	Soriano	1795	0.5281	0.2669	2.7	0.3226	0.1092	0.4465	0.3005	0.874
Milton	Bradley	1891	0.4479	0.2645	3.2	0.3866	0.1412	0.2509	0.2394	0.900
Adam	Dunn	2705	0.3885	0.2797	2.8	0.3423	0.1301	0.2400	0.3261	0.914
Rafael	Furcal	629	0.4165	0.0878	2.2	0.3752	0.1383	0.2875	0.3686	0.772
Aubrey	Huff	2438	0.4311	0.1446	2.1	0.3585	0.1313	0.3216	0.3730	0.818
Brian	Roberts	2730	0.4081	0.1239	2.0	0.4018	0.1392	0.2449	0.3491	0.812
Felix	Pie	338	0.5178	0.2400	2.2	0.3994	0.1095	0.3645	0.2519	0.707
David	DeJesus	2167	0.4139	0.0970	1.8	0.3890	0.1315	0.2779	0.3725	0.781
Mike	Fontenot	1091	0.4152	0.1876	2.0	0.3831	0.1247	0.2793	0.3660	0.802
Ryan	Theriot	2431	0.3974	0.0807	1.7	0.4406	0.1160	0.2478	0.4127	0.724
Micah	Hoffpauir	273	0.5238	0.2797	2.5	0.3553	0.1172	0.3864	0.2268	0.799
Kosuke	Fukudome	2460	0.4098	0.1538	2.1	0.3850	0.1402	0.2683	0.3643	0.748
Billy	Butler	2479	0.4510	0.1646	2.2	0.4006	0.1246	0.3271	0.3635	0.791
Ronny	Cedeno	998	0.5180	0.1567	1.7	0.4128	0.1283	0.4096	0.3277	0.688
Mark	Teahen	3233	0.4872	0.2178	2.2	0.3829	0.1240	0.3378	0.2722	0.774
Jeremy	Hermida	2981	0.4381	0.2159	1.8	0.3750	0.1349	0.3323	0.3855	0.802

Swing swings/pitches
Whiff whiffs/swings
B:CS ratio, based on umpires' calls
ISZ pitches within the rule book zone
Paint pitch not in rule book zone, but within the typical "as-played/called" zone
Chase Swing, but only pitches out of the zone
Watch Takes on pitches in the zone