Today, I steal an idea from Fire Jim Bowden - a metric designed to estimate the impact of luck on a pitcher's ERA.
Short story: Luck = tRA* - .40 - ERA
Long story: follow the links
Being lazy, I just picked a few pitchers. Harden's numbers are as a Cub only. Continuing my complete rip-off of Steven's work, some more "traditional" stats that involve some luck are included for comparison.
ERA BABIP HR/FB LOB tRA* Luck
Harden 1.77 0.229 7.9% 86.3% 4.20 2.03
Samardzija 2.28 0.312 0.0% 70.0% 4.41 1.73
Dempster 2.96 0.288 7.7% 76.7% 4.06 0.70
Marshall 3.86 0.288 11.4% 79.3% 4.67 0.41
Zambrano 3.91 0.277 9.0% 73.4% 4.54 0.23
Marmol 2.68 0.185 9.9% 78.1% 3.18 0.10
Lilly 4.09 0.283 12.1% 76.0% 4.43 -0.06
Cotts 4.29 0.350 17.1% 80.6% 3.93 -0.76
Neal Cotts is should bounce-back, Harden and Samardzija will regress (which is fairly predictable based on the ERAs alone). What's interesting is how little luck there was for Marmol and Lilly, relatively speaking.
3 comments:
Cool. I'm glad other people liked the idea.
The more precise way to do it would be to just eschew the ERA altogether and do tRA* - actual RA = luck runs per 9.
I did it this way just because most readers are used to ERA. But as a precise measure of luck, this is better.
Interesting.
Thanks a lot, this will help me to get another analysis for pitchers.
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