This is the first in a multi-part series looking at the candidates for the last rotation spot
The Cubs are leaning towards Sean Marshall taking the last spot in the 2009 rotation. Jeff Samardzija is also getting a look, which should surprise no one. They're both in the mix, along with hot stove acquisition Aaron Heilman.
With Marshall the favorite for the 5th spot (or 4th, depending on where you slot Harden) in Chicago and Samardzija the 1st spot in Iowa, Heilman is emerging as the wild card who could mess up the pretty picture.
The New Guy
Not exactly a fan favorite in New York, the conventional wisdom in Flushing was Heilman didn't have the pitches to move back to the rotation. Heilman wanted to start, seemingly unwilling to take the grief from the fans while not getting a chance to complete in important situations. Being back home makes Heilman more likely to accept a bullpen roll - he's a Hoosier who lives in town during the off-season - but still wants a chance to start.
Heilman's stove has been hotter than most players' this Winter. Aaron left the Mets happily in trade #1 and showed up in Seattle for their fan convention. He was looking forward to working his way into the Mariners rotation, an opportunity that seemed virtually guarenteed. Before he could even begin looking for a place to live, Heilman was shipped to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson (who used O'Hare as a stop-over on his way from Baltimore).
The Homegrown Kids
Sean Marshall has shown an ability to adapt to the many assignments Lou and Larry have handed him. This could be to his own detriment, but Lou likes forcing the opponent's hand by starting left-handed pitchers. In any case, Marshall isn't assured of a spot in the rotation, despite the fine work he provided as a spot starter in 2008.
No one doubts Jeff Samardzija's athleticism or ability to step into the bright lights and perform. For one, I doubt his ability to focus when the lights aren't shining (something he admits to, so look out I-Cub fans) and his ability to command his secondary pitches. Either give him the ball to start or in a high leverage situation if you want the Shark's best.
What Do They Throw?
I've covered all three pitchers in the past in this space. Here's a quick recap. Follow the links for pictures/details.
Aaron Heilman
I'll spend some extra time on Heilman, since I figure he's, by far, the least familiar to most readers of this blog.
In this introduction to Heilman, I took a look at his slider, change-up and fastball. Heilman has a funky delivery, what I'm pretty sure is a two-seam fastball and a three finger change. He's got a straight change that comes in about 10 mph under his 94 mph fastball. Don't expect the same velocity when he's starting, however.
In a second look at Heilman, his pitch mix was reviewed*. What I found was the Mets were wrong - Heilman was using his slider more against lefties in 2008, and to good effect. He also was throwing it to righties, something he hadn't done in 2007. I think I can understand why Heilman wanted out of New York.
*In that second post on Heilman, I also checked out some projections on all three subjects of this post
Sean Marshall
Full set of pitches, including a world class curveball. Sean throws two fastballs, a cutter and a slider to round it out. Here's a look at a nice start from September. This look at a bigger data set, but without a correct split/ID of the fastballs, will give you an idea of when he throws pitches and a few other details on outcomes. At that time, Sean was struggling and falling behind to a lot of hitters.
Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija throws a two-seam fastball and not much else worth talking about. Well, that's not fair. He throws that heat close to 96 with a lot of movement. Hitters still seem to be able to make some form of contact with the fastball, but it really sets-up his under-developed array of secondary pitches (slider, splitter, change-up). This review from August covers not only that dynamic, but also an interesting pattern of release points.
Part 2 will start the look at pitching styles - what the three have in common, and how they're different from each other. For now, click the labels below for much much more on Samardzija and Marshall.
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