Cubs Plate Discipline Trends

This will be a graphical journey, in what ever order blogger chose to dump the graphs into this post. We have PITCHf/x data now for as many as four years. "Years" meaning 2006 playoffs, parts of 2007 and virtually all of 2008 and 2009. Time to start looking at some trends over time, even if the season is young.

For today, I'll focus on "plate discipline". I'm using three measures, plus one extra. "Swing" is simply swings divided by pitches seen. That's graphed in green (as in go). "Chase", the black bar, is swing rate for pitches outside of each hitter's strike zone. I do use a 24" plate, which is how the game is typically played. "Watch" is truly the inverse of chase. It's the rate of pitches taken in the zone (red bar, naturally). Or, 1 minus swings in the zone. The bonus measure is "nkSLG", or non-K slugging, or slugging on contact (total bases divided by all balls in play, including home runs). That's in blue. Under each set of bars are two numbers. The number of pitches counted for that year, and ... the year.

Enough yammering, on with the show ... next time I'll look at how pitchers have approached these guys.

Updated: Start it off with a baseline, using all pitches in the database (over 1 million) and just the Cubs (over 31k).






Theriot swings less than almost every major leaguer, and his Watch rate is also around the top.


Geo's off to a very slow start, some blame the WBC. I think he's taking too many strikes.


You can see a trend emerging. The difference between Chase and Watch has been shrinking. Keep it up, Fonzie. BTW, he crushes the ball, league average for nkSLG is around .500.


Aramis is hot now, but he's actually showing poor judgment early in the season. Nothing too surprising, though.


Get the bat off your shoulder, Aaron, and maybe you'll hit something hard(er).


Lee's eye may have declined a bit - but it may be how he's being pitched to.


Not a lot of playing time, but Reed is actually looking quite patient.


Swing at everything, Hoffpauir. Hit it hard or miss it.


Hill is also on a hot streak.


Joey hasn't put the ball in play yet. Showing extreme patience.


This is a good start for Kosuke. Great eye, good contact.


Little Bate Ruth is a patient hitter.


And Mr. Zone Judgment himself, Milton Bradley.


I did save this one for the end - totals for each hitter.