Sunday, April 5, 2009

Cubs vs. Oswalt

Other than Micah Hoffpauir, every Cub hitter (including Big Z) has faced Roy Oswalt in a PITCHf/x covered game. Zambrano has seen 12 pitches and Derrek Lee has seen 53. No one else is below 15 or above 30.

Starting with pitch selections, without distinguishing two- and four-seam fastballs, different change-ups/splitters and the possible slider-ish cutter:



Oswalt will only use his change-up against the lefties, and not often at that. Only Fukudome and Zambrano get by without seeing any cutters. He likes throwing his off-speed stuff to Fontenot.



Aramis is the oddball. Soto is, too, but with just 15 pitches seen.

Swings and Whiffs:



That's actually pretty normal for Carlos. He takes his hacks, that's for sure. The left-handers seem to fare better against Oswalt, in terms of Whiffs, with Lee and Johnson being the exceptions.

This next one is another step closer to actual production. nkSLG is total bases per ball put in play, including home runs, excluding foul balls. TBP is just total bases per pitch. nkSLG tells you how hard stuff was hit, while TBP dilutes it with how infrequently you hit it. .5 and .1 are about average, respectively.

You'll notice, with all that swinging and whiffing, there are no hits by Zambrano against Oswalt in the PITCHf/x database.



Picks to click: Milton and Derrek.

Guess who I think is going to have a bad game.


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