Geovany Soto has been struggling at the plate. The Cubs broadcast teams seem to think it's due to the World Baseball Classic—Geo didn't get enough reps at the plate to be ready. You can also wonder about his shoulder. The Astros didn't wonder about it, they just ran. Another common observation is Soto has failed to attack pitches that he used to go after.
Soto played for the Cubs a bit in 2007, so we actually have three samples, by year, of Geo Data in PITCHf/x. The 2007 and 2009 happen to be similar sized data sets (225 and 262 pitches, respectively). Of course, for 2008, we've got plenty. 2214 pitches to be exact. Plus, there's the always handy Fangraphs. I'll use their batted ball stats, but not their zone stats. I derived those myself from PITCHf/x using my strike zone boundaries.
(2007/2008/2009)
Line Drive % 22.0/21.0/15.2
Ground Ball % 41.5/37.7/48.5
Fly ball % 36.6/41.4/36.4
HR/Fly ball % 20.0/14.7/ 0.0
Whether by luck, measurement error or actual deficiency, Soto's contact numbers are down. A drop in fly balls and line drives, fully replaced by grounders, along with a complete lack of home runs.
Swing .378/.420/.344
Chase .213/.207/.175
Watch .427/.375/.454
Let me pause there for a moment. I use a two-foot wide plate and the average of the PITCHf/x operator top/bottom zones. It's quite evident that Geo is swinging less. Not only at pitches out of the zone (Chase) but he's taking strikes (Watch).
Whiff .247/.259/.256
nkSLG .838/.644/.158
First, when he does swing, he's missing no more or less than usual. But, when he makes contact, the results are horrible. nkSLG is total bases on balls put in play (outs, hits and home runs). .509 is average, so Geo's obviously been hitting the ball very poorly, as indicated by the Fangraphs batted ball stats.
My take is not a happy one. Geo has two problems. He's not swinging at enough strikes and he's making lousy contact. I'll take some extra Chases with fewer Watches, assuming he's healthy.
Without some direct measures of contact quality, it's hard to go much further. It seems to me, however, that Geo's struggles are deeper than "luck", which is what he seems to be writing it off to (at least publicly).
2 comments:
I'd be more worried if he were swinging the same amount but still hitting horribly. It seems to me a lack of confidence. What came first, lack of results, lack of confidence, whatever.
This seems to me (and yeah, maybe I'm just looking for silver lining) that he came in not ready, did poorly and is just very hesitant to swing at anything. And when he does, he's not doing well, which makes him lose confidence, vicious cycle, blah blah blah.
If this continues for another month with no sign of improvement, then I'm going to be worried. Of course, maybe he is horrible and spotting it this early minimizes the damage.
Thinking it might be that shoulder. Hafner had his power sapped last season by a bum shoulder, and I'm wondering if we're not seeing that with Soto.
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