Cubs vs. Graham Taylor - PITCHf/x preview

Marlins rookie Graham Taylor is excited to pitch today (source):

Taylor in awe of Wrigley: Graham Taylor, who will make is second career start today, said it's "a dream come true" pitching in Wrigley Field.

"This is the first time I've been here, and it's pretty awesome to say the least," Taylor said. "It's really exciting to go out there and just the history that's in this ballpark, it's awesome."

He allowed four runs on four hits and six walks in 3 2/3 innings Sunday against Philadelphia in his major-league debut.

Taylor admitted he was too anxious. "I'm just trying to stay under control," he said.

Taylor's parents, other family members and friends will make the four- to five-hour drive from the family home in Villa Hills, Ky., to Chicago.

About that debut .... if you poke around the interwebs, you'll find that Taylor came through the lower rungs of the Marlins system based on impressive control. That certainly wasn't on display against the Phillies.

Going back a few months to look at Taylor's latest work in the minors, there may have been a hint of control issues—despite the sterling reputation.

Taylor finished 2008 in AA and made three starts there in 2009 before jumping into the Marlins rotation. It isn't much to go on, but here are his AA numbers (source):

IP 40.1  
HR    5 
BB   14 
SO   25 

Per 9IP
HR  1.1
BB  3.1
SO  5.6

Neither those 40 innings in the Southern League or the 3 in the Major League tell us anything with certainty, but it may take a little shine of his reputation.

Control is going to be the name of the game for the young lefty. Why? Well, he's already being compared to Jamie Moyer. Here's what he throws:

Sinker (F2): 85 mph
Fastball (F4): 86
Change-up (CH): 80
Slider (SL): 76

I haven't looked closely at the PITCHf/x data from 2009 to have a good grip on park-to-park differences, so take the following flight paths—the release points in particular—with a grain of salt. He appears to be coming from the extreme first base side of the mound. After his start in Wrigley, we'll have a better idea on his stuff, all around. Click the images for a larger version.







He'll face Rich Harden today. Should be interesting.

These pitch classifications are slightly updated from what I had in an earlier note at Beyond the Box Score. They are not based on Gameday's classifications.