Saturday, May 2, 2009

Lilly Dominates Marlins and Sanchez

Ted Lilly struck out 10 batters while not issuing a single walk on Saturday. The Marlins were presented with a strike zone full of pitches, while Lilly's offerings—including off-speed and breaking—were finding the mark. Lilly found the "wide" zone with over 2/3 of his pitches. Most pitchers would be pleased with 55-60%. For reference, Rich Harden ended up at 50% on Friday.

Lilly's aggressive and controlled approach led the Marlins to put the first pitch in play on over 17% of their at bats. Amazingly, nearly 30% of Lilly's 0-0 cutters were put in play. Quick outs, short innings with just four singles and a home run allowed—it was a very impressive outing.

Of Lilly's 104 pitches, 19 were curveballs. He threw 49 fastballs, 27 cutter/slutter/sliders and just seven change-ups. I found two sinkers that are a bit of surprise, but they looked pretty distinct.

Those "fastballs" averaged around 87 mph (it helps if you add the two sinkers, gets it closer to 87). Lilly's change was a hair under 80, the slutter around 81 and the curve floated in at 70 mph.

With Aaron Heilman striking out the side—and throwing the hardest stuff of the game, crossing 94 mph—the Cubs easily handled the Marlins. All of the Chicago runs came in the first four innings, followed by three shut-out innings from Hayden Penn. Kiko Calero pitched the eighth, allowing one hit while striking out two.

Penn had a good outing, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out four. Lilly matched him and kept the game safely tucked away. Penn reached 93 (one notch below Heilman's fastest), but the Cubs struggled most with his curveball. Penn only used it seven times, but the Cubs swung at balls and took strikes. Penn's change-up was no easier, although the Cubs did find themselves able to lay off it. Thing is, when they did swing at it they whiffed on half their tries.

The Marlins relief duo wasn't enough to make up for the runs scored off Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez had trouble finding the zone, and ended up with an intriguing mix of whiffs (36% of swings missed) and hard hit balls (1.2 bases per ball in play, which is 2x average).

The Cubs will be looking for three straight wins, but will be short a pinch-hitter tomorrow. Big Z takes on Ricky Nolasco at 1:20.


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