Cliff Lee - Still Tough, But Not 2008 Tough

Cliff Lee is amazing. His increased use of a sinker in 2008 helped take him from the verge of washing out to a Cy Young Award. Lee had a little bit of a slow start in 2009, but is throwing strikes and getting outs at impressive rates. His near no-hitter in his last start serves as a bad omen for the Cubs.

Cliff Lee's Pitches

Breaking down Lee's pitches wasn't horribly difficult, but there are over 5000 of them available in PITCHf/x dating to 2007.

             #   vs LHH    vs RHH   MPH    DEG     RPM
Change     717     0.2%     19.7%    84    129    2079
Curve      431    11.4%      7.3%    76    321    1650
Sinker    1745    23.3%     38.6%    92    137    2382
Fastball  1755    49.3%     28.3%    91    158    2307
Cutter     391    11.9%      5.9%    86    205    1091
Slider      64     4.0%      0.1%    79    230     535

The slider is a rarely used weapon, essentially a change-up from his cutter. Notice the spin axis (DEG) for the change and how it is closely aligns with this sinker (two-seam fastball).



Flight Paths

Before getting into the quality/outcomes of his stuff, here are three looks at Lee's flight paths. All six pitches, followed by the four he most often throws to left-handed hitters and then the three he throws to righties.







No, I didn't split the last two sets of flight paths by batter hand. The images are made of the average all pitches to all batters Lee faced under the watchful eye of PITCHf/x.

Run Values

My most favoriteist way of measuring "quality" lately has been run values. Based on the expected runs for a given count, the average pitch(er) will pile-up a run value of zero. Negative numbers are good for pitchers, meaning less runs allowed than average. The stat is typically expressed in terms of run value per 100 pitches (rv100). You can get more info on the run values I'm using over here.

rv100      2007   2008   2009
Change     3.04  -0.48   1.68
Curve      0.67  -0.50   0.96
Sinker     3.21  -1.24  -1.25
Fastball  -2.30  -1.36  -0.55
Cutter     6.59   0.36   0.10
Slider     3.93  -5.62  -0.29

As I write this, the possibility (liklihood) of tweaking the basis for the run values exists. It shouldn't dramatically impact what you're seeing here, though. I'll let you know if it does.

Don't get too excited about that slider, he threw 40 of them all of 2008. If I use cumulative run values above average (RVAA) instead of using the rate stat rv100, I can compare, accounting for pitch mix, the total value of each pitch. To do so, I'm doing something quick-and-dirty. Lee threw 2.3x more pitches in 2008 than in 2009. Go figure, it's only June. So, I'm just multiplying Lee's run values by 2.3.



Behind those run values are real events, like batted balls, swinging strikes and everything else. In Lee's case, the changes are being driven by a few factors, based on a comparison to 2008.

• Lee is actually missing more bats with his change up (.24 whiff, up from .18 in 2008) but it's still getting hit hard (SLGCON .583, up from .455)


• The increased slugging against the change seems related to an increase in line drives (18% from 13%) and even an oddly high rate of line drives leaving the park (18%, I think that's 3-4x higher than average, but I have to re-check that)


• It's a similar story with Lee's four-seam fastball. His ground ball rate has dropped from 37% down to 28%, with seven of those nine percentage points going to his line drive rate


• Still, his SLGON has barely crept up (.453 from .435) against the fastball; he's lost a run per 100 fastballs not put in play, though


• Lee's strike rate with his fastball, measured by IWZ (in wide zone, two foot plate) has dropped from .64 to .60 and umpires are calling more balls (1.6 B:CS ratio, up from 1.2). Still, good stats, just not as pristine as last season


• While the sinker, to a lesser extent than the fastball, has found the zone, and the umpire's favor, less often this year, it has been effective when put in play


• Sporting a 51% ground ball rate, the sinker only yields a SLGCON of .370. Result: an rv100 of -3.11 on balls in play, which is insane. Just being below zero is impressive enough

Well, at least the Cubs have Rich Harden facing this guy.

Cliff Lee is going to pound the strike zone with all of his pitches, so don't be surprised if the Cubs swing early.