Cubs Get Second Shot at Justin Lehr

Justin Lehr resurrected his career in Dusty Baker's rotation. His second start as a Major Leaguer, at the age of 32, was against the Cubs in August. It didn't go well for Chicago.

Lehr hasn't topped 90 mph yet, but he's managed to win a few ballgames. He's got below average stuff, but he changes speeds and throws a bunch of different pitches. His sinker/fastball/cutter combo lean well towards the cut side of the fastball spectrum, as he looks to come over-the-top and throws the ball pretty straight.

Here's what he throws, a variety of looks at when he throws it, and how he's done with it so far.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Curveball	86	50	36	71.8	5.0	-8.0	32.6	1,523.0
Sinker	265	106	159	86.7	-5.2	7.3	215.6	1,743.1
Fastball	104	64	40	85.6	0.1	7.9	179.4	1,531.6
Cutter	51	7	44	84.7	2.6	5.0	152.0	1,082.9
Splitter	105	57	48	80.5	-3.6	5.8	213.1	1,255.2
Slider	85	14	71	80.0	3.0	0.7	106.6	648.5

His fastball looks like a cutter, until he throws an actual cutter (or, at least, what I think is an actual cutter).

Here's what he throws against lefties.

v LHH	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
first	82	9%	46%	15%	2%	24%	4%
ahead	66	52%	17%	14%	5%	12%	2%
even	46	13%	30%	20%	2%	30%	4%
behind	89	2%	43%	30%	1%	16%	8%
full	15	7%	33%	47%	0%	7%	7%

Starts with sinkers, finishes with curveballs.

Righties:

v RHH	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
first	109	6%	40%	7%	5%	8%	34%
ahead	118	23%	25%	10%	16%	20%	5%
even	65	5%	48%	8%	15%	9%	15%
behind	84	0%	46%	17%	8%	8%	20%
full	22	0%	68%	5%	14%	9%	5%

A lot of sinkers and sliders, and plenty of splitters - against both sides.

vs	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
LHH	298	17%	36%	21%	2%	19%	5%
RHH	398	9%	40%	10%	11%	12%	18%
	696	12%	38%	15%	7%	15%	12%

Pitch selection by start

date	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
2009-07-31	93	9%	38%	13%	6%	19%	15%
2009-08-05	117	14%	43%	13%	7%	15%	9%
2009-08-11	89	12%	38%	20%	6%	7%	17%
2009-08-16	93	13%	35%	23%	6%	12%	11%
2009-08-22	74	16%	35%	11%	9%	16%	12%
2009-08-27	117	9%	41%	14%	5%	14%	18%
2009-09-01	113	15%	35%	12%	12%	21%	5%

His pitch counts have been up the last two times out, for what ever that's worth.

Results - the most important to me are whiffs, strikes (In Wide Zone), slugging on contact, run value against average per 100 pitches (negative is better for pitchers). rv100E is based on batted ball type (liner/pop etc) rather than outs and hits, which are used for rv100.

Type	#	Whiff	IWZ	SLGCON	rv100	rv100E
Curveball	86	0.195	0.419	0.444	0.96	1.49
Sinker	265	0.084	0.574	0.549	0.58	0.30
Fastball	104	0.089	0.567	0.269	-1.40	2.02
Cutter	51	0.077	0.451	0.313	0.07	5.47
Splitter	105	0.213	0.429	0.500	0.59	0.88
Slider	85	0.156	0.682	0.529	-0.37	-1.18
	696	0.128	0.536	0.455	0.18	0.99

Best pitch is the slider. Throws a lot of strikes with it, and his fastballs, too.

Balls and strikes, according to the ump, along with swing, chase (swings out of the zone) and watch (takes in the zone):

Type	#	B:CS	Swing	Chase	Watch
Curveball	86	2.2	0.477	0.400	0.417
Sinker	265	1.5	0.404	0.221	0.454
Fastball	104	1.4	0.433	0.178	0.373
Cutter	51	7.3	0.510	0.250	0.174
Splitter	105	5.4	0.448	0.317	0.378
Slider	85	1.0	0.377	0.222	0.517
	696	1.8	0.428	0.263	0.421

The watch and B:CS say "swing more!" to hitters. Or it should.

Lehr is pretty average in terms of batted ball types, but lucky with home runs off flies and liners.

Type	#	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%
Curveball	86	44%	22%	6%	28%	0%
Sinker	265	49%	33%	0%	18%	12%
Fastball	104	35%	38%	8%	19%	0%
Cutter	51	25%	38%	6%	31%	0%
Splitter	105	54%	27%	8%	12%	10%
Slider	85	41%	41%	12%	6%	13%
	696	44%	33%	5%	18%	6%

Lehr's complete game shutout of the Cubs probably won't be repeated. I hope.