Lilly vs Smoltz - Run Values by Start

Things get underway Friday in the last I-55 tilt of 2009. Ted Lilly will face John Smoltz in Busch III to start a three-game weekend series.

When the Red Sox let Smoltz go, I figured he was pretty much spent. He beat expectations (mine by a mile) when he debuted as a Cardinal. Since then, a bit of the shine came off and he got a little time off. Smoltz will be working on nine days rest.

Start by Start Performance

These rv100 and rv100E values are game-by-game roll-ups of a stat I usually use pitch-by-pitch. These are calculated the same way, with negative values being better (effectively runs saved per 100 pitches). rv100E is based on batted ball type and rv100 is based on batted ball outcome (i.e. liners and grounders vs. doubles and outs).

John Smoltz



Smoltz came back to earth before a missed start due to shoulder tendinitis. Still not bad, and, as some readers pointed out to me, very unlucky while in Boston.

Ted Lilly



Lilly also looks to be coming down from a mini-peak, but has had a few long stretches of solid outings.

Smoltz against Chicago

In case you're wondering, this will be Smoltz' 30th start against the Cubs. Throw in ten relief appearances and you have a career line of 202.7 innings, 15 wins, eight saves, four shutouts (and two other complete games). Best part? 171 K and just 61 BB. It all adds up to a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.33 ERA. Like any of that matters, but it is impressive. The only blemish would be the 30 home runs the Cubs have hit against him.