Rubber Match - Ted Lilly vs Homer Bailey

Saturday saw the Cubs bring their four game winning streak to a close. It ended despite coming back from 5-0 deficit against the Reds. In a game marred by poor defense by the Cubs, Carlos Marmol was just wild enough, and gave up two hits, to give the game back to the visitors from Ohio, 7-5.

Ted Lilly and Homer Bailey will match-up in Sunday's rubber match. Lilly's been great lately, doing his normal throw-strikes get-fly-balls routine. Bailey has been roughed up in 2009, as he was in 2008 and 2007 (in limited stints) despite being, at one time, a much hyped prospect.

Bailey has shown good velocity in 2009, better than years past, but has yet to develop into anything more than a back of the rotation guy with a 95 mph fastball. This year, he's been throwing everything harder. His slider is back in the upper 80s, after a dip into the mid 80s last year. Bailey's change-up is also thrown harder, and less often.








As you can see, when it comes to Homer Bailey, there's not exactly a lot of 2007 data. Or 2008 for that matter. Rolling the years back together...

Counts	#	Change	Curve	Sinker	Fastball	Slider
first	638	6%	10%	4%	72%	8%
ahead	686	15%	12%	3%	55%	15%
even	430	13%	13%	3%	58%	13%
behind	622	6%	5%	6%	76%	7%
full	98	4%	9%	3%	82%	2%
	2474	10%	10%	4%	66%	10%

cfx	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
Change	243	0.535	0.285	8.0	0.444	0.341	0.185
Curve	238	0.378	0.189	1.8	0.479	0.250	0.474
Sinker	98	0.378	0.216	2.5	0.459	0.170	0.356
Fastball	1641	0.451	0.127	2.0	0.569	0.216	0.364
Slider	254	0.500	0.173	3.9	0.476	0.308	0.289
	2474	0.454	0.158	2.3	0.534	0.243	0.352

cfx	#	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%
Change	243	0.634	34%	27%	7%	32%	4%
Curve	238	0.605	50%	29%	3%	18%	11%
Sinker	98	0.286	50%	36%	0%	14%	0%
Fastball	1641	0.513	42%	28%	8%	22%	8%
Slider	254	0.746	36%	35%	2%	27%	15%
	2474	0.553	41%	29%	6%	23%	9%

cfx	#	rv100	rv100E
Change	243	1.20	1.04
Curve	238	0.89	0.17
Sinker	98	-0.85	0.42
Fastball	1641	0.36	0.54
Slider	254	4.04	2.70
	2474	0.82	0.77